Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin is in italics. Commentary by Russian military blogger Ilya Topchy
[ColonelCassad] Historian Ilya Topchy about the number and losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Haven't written for a long time. There were problems with the computer and the browser (presumably hacked and messed up). Happens.
Recently - more precisely, the day before yesterday, May 18, 2023 - an interesting infographic on the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine was published on Boris Rozhin's blog: A total of 264,000 killed, 11,000 prisoners and 407,000 in the ranks.
Curious here's why. Recently, at the end of April 2023, there was a report on the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the US Congress. It called the total loss of about 300,000 people, including 110,000 killed.
By the way, this is a lot. Russia's losses in terms of the dead were estimated as 3-4 times less: 25,000-30,000 people. By the way, even before the start of the NMD, American intelligence estimated approximately the same ratio of losses: as one to four.
Surprising, since Ukrainians even back in 2014 would pad Russian/separatist losses in men and materiel by an order of magnitude.
At the same time, 400,000 people were estimated as combat personnel. Without the rear (100,000 people) and recruits (another 100,000 people).
Thanks, by the way, to one person for information support. And without NGU, border guards and, it seems, the defense (that's another 250,000-300,000 people per circle).
Given the large number of troops they had in the north, in the rear, and so on, a typical situation was obtained that was similar to the Civil War in Russia a hundred years ago. That is, when a lot of people were mobilized - in July 2022, for example, 700,000 in the Armed Forces of Ukraine and 250,000 in other structures, in addition to the pre-war composition. And he fights a little (in the spring of 2023 near Kyiv - about 200,000-250,000 military personnel in the LBS).
These data on losses also surprisingly coincided with those published here on February 12: about 65,000 killed at the Armed Forces of Ukraine (57,000 of their own and 8,000 foreign tourists) . By the end of April 2023, they were supposed to have, indeed, about 110,000 killed (including well over 10,000 foreign tourists). Thanks again to someone (data not mine).
Their losses in the dead over the past four months:
- January 2023 - 6,500 killed (almost a third - in the Soledar massacre);
- February 2023 - 11,000 killed. In particular, they lost a lot during the Wagner offensive on February 23-27 in Artemovsk, when out of 30,000-35,000 personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, 12,000 people were killed, including 4,000-5,000 killed;
- March 2023 - 11,000 killed;
- April 2023 - 15,000 killed.
If the above estimates are correct, it turns out that a third of all losses by killed AFU suffered in the last reporting quarter (February-April 2023). Which means that both casualties and the intensity of the fighting are growing noticeably.
The bloodiest war in Europe since WWII. On average, the losses of the Ukrainian side are about 8,000 killed per month. At the same time, over the past three months (February-April 2023), on average, the losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine were more than 12,000 killed per month. And for the 11 previous months of the campaign, the average losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine killed (per month) were less than 7,000 killed (and January 2023 with its Soledar massacre turns out to be quite an average month here).
Approximately like this. We'll see.