[AfghanDigest] LAST 24 HOURS
- TALIBAN FORCES CONDUCT DRILLS IN THE SUPREME LEADER’S COMPOUND IN KANDAHAR – The Governor’s office in Kandahar announced that a series of drills by Taliban security forces would take place yesterday (possibly today) at the Mullah Omar compound. The drills did involve some live use of ordinance. A source in Kabul claimed that a Ministry of the Interior officer assigned as an observer to the security detachment for the Supreme Leader was denied access to the training. The source said the drills focused on defending the perimeter of the compound and reacting to a notional drone strike and/or rocket attacks.
- MINISTER OF THE INTERIOR HAQQANI VIEWED AS POSSIBLE REFORM MINDED ALTERNATIVE TO THE SUPREME LEADER – In a recent controversial interview, Karen Decker, Chargé d’Affaires of the US Embassy in Afghanistan was asked if Sirajuddin Haqqani was a terrorist and if he was still wanted by US authorities for terrorist actions. Decker danced around the response and many see this as evidence the US and other international states may be warming to him as a potential counter-balance to the hard-liners in Kandahar. Both Haqqani and Yaqub (Minister of Defense) have made no secret of their views on the future direction the country should take and have openly challenged the parochial view of the Deobandist-minded cabal that surrounds the Supreme Leader. Clearly many are hoping that one or both of these men ‘solve’ the problem that Kandahar poses. However, several experts have pointed out that the rank and file of the Taliban share the vision the Supreme Leader has established and any potential challenge (bloodless or not) would most likely devolve into a civil war.
- WAR CLOUDS FORMING OVER IRAN – The situation in Iran has continued to worsen over the course of 2023. Tehran seems intent on goading the US and the West into taking some kind of action in the Persian Gulf and many are now saying that a de facto state of war exists with Israel. Tehran has cozied up with Russia and is doing its best to make itself an indispensable supplier of arms and ammunition for Russia’s war in Ukraine. It received a bump in approval ratings for reestablishing relations with Saudi Arabia but many believe the foundations on which the Chinese brokered rapprochement has been laid could evaporate if the promises to halt military/technical/financial aid to the Houthi rebels in Yemen are not kept. While the protests that rocked the country in late 2022 have fallen off, Iran faces a dismal economic situation that has been made worse by falsified economic data that fails to reflect the economic realities faced by average Iranians. Finally, the rapid progress in the enrichment program has all but given Israel a countdown clock for action. In short, several pre-conditions for conflict now exist and some are saying that war is inevitable. Should a conflict erupt, few will be surprised.
NEXT 24 HOURS
PAKISTAN ‘FREEDOM PROTESTS’ – The ousted former Prime Minister's calls for nationwide protests (Freedom Protests) have taken on an ominous tone. His YouTube speech after his release seemed to incite followers to ‘’snatch’ freedom and to be prepared to ‘sacrifice’ for it. The government has responded with similar incendiary remarks such as the Foreign Minister’s statement to Parliament that the PTI party has ‘one last chance’ to prove itself. The Army has made no bones about its intent to safeguard its bases and troops. Several small demonstrations have continued to take place in certain cities, both for and against the regime. However, these have not resulted in significant clashes. Most are looking to 17 May as the next potential flashpoint when Khan’s immunity from arrest expires. We agree that 17 May will likely be the next crucible date for the drama but at-risk Afghans in Pakistan should not discount the potential for problems starting today or tonight. We recommend people stock up on food/water and be prepared to shelter in place from Wednesday afternoon. We do not assess a specific threat to Afghan citizens in Pakistan but believe the main threat will come from being caught between the government and PTI lines. |