[REGNUM] During large-scale exercises off the coast of Taiwan, the PRC fleet and aviation worked out in detail the option of forcibly reuniting the island with mainland China, including providing for blocking help from the United States. Does the Chinese army not only have the means, but also the skills for a small victorious war, and will Taiwan have time to cover itself with the Israeli "Iron Dome"?
The People's Liberation Army of China (PLA) held a three-day military exercise in the vicinity of Taiwan. During the Common Sword maneuvers, the strike group of the Chinese Navy worked out actions to blockade the island, which Beijing considers a rebellious province.
The grouping included six ships: the Shandong aircraft carrier, the 055 type destroyer with a displacement of 10,000 tons, the 052D type destroyer, two 054A frigates and the 901 type complex replenishment ship, the official Chinese television channel CCTV listed.
Groups of frigates and destroyers of the Chinese Navy were also involved, which worked out scenarios for pursuing retreating enemy ships and blocking shipping.
The exercises were simultaneously conducted in the Taiwan Strait, as well as in the waters to the northwest, southwest and east of the island of Taiwan. As a result of the maneuvers, the combined naval and air forces managed to completely "seize the initiative in the South China Sea," the Beijing-based English-language edition of the Global Times reported.
According to journalists, the Shandong aircraft carrier group operated east of Taiwan, practicing two tasks: stopping attempts to escape from the island, as well as preventing a breakthrough of reinforcements in the face of the Japanese or US Navy.
The Shandong aircraft carrier, we note, was launched relatively recently, in 2017. This is the second ship of this class and the first built in China itself. The first aircraft carrier, Liaoning, was originally built at the Black Sea shipyard in Nikolaev as a heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser and was called Varyag before completion.
The defense department of the “Republic of China” (as Taiwan officially calls itself) told the Hong Kong South China Morning Post: the army of mainland China also involved Su-30, J-16 fighter jets, Chinese carrier-based J-15 fighters, Shaanxi Y-8 anti-submarine aircraft and drones . Almost 60 aircraft and 11 ships of the PLA were recorded near the island.
In October last year, Chinese President Xi Jinping , speaking at the opening of the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China (at which Xi's sole leadership in the party and state apparatus was finally formalized), said: China is striving for peaceful reunification with Taiwan, but does not abandon the military option to resolve the issue. "National reunification will definitely be done" .
As Director of the Center for Comprehensive European and International Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics Vasily Kashin noted in a comment to REGNUM news agency ,
The establishment of a naval blockade is one of the most likely scenarios in which the Chinese army can carry out an operation to take Taiwan under its control.
“There are different views on how the PLA operation in Taiwan could develop. There are suggestions that China will try to conduct a lightning operation that will be aimed at achieving the goals of preventing the transfer of US forces to Asia, ” Kashin said.
But, the expert added, it is worth noting that the Chinese army has no combat experience since the border war with Vietnam in February-March 1979. “The last people who participated in it were some senior officers and generals who managed to catch this war in the positions of platoon commanders, companies, maximum battalions. Since then, they have not participated in large-scale hostilities, ” Kashin noted.
“Therefore, there is a strong possibility that the landing on Taiwan, which is the largest amphibious operation since the Second World War or the Korean War, will not succeed. Because when using huge forces and means, a lot can go wrong,” the source said.
Hence the second option arises, Kashin noted. “A blockade attempt may be made with the gradual capture of small islands near the main island of Taiwan, and only after that a large-scale landing operation ,” the expert noted.
In mid-August last year, the PLA Air Force conducted maneuvers in the Taiwan-controlled Penghu archipelago (also known as the Pescadores Islands), which is located in the Taiwan Strait south of the main island. After that, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen visited the "Republic of China" air force base deployed in the archipelago and announced an increase in military spending to a record amount of 586.3 billion Taiwan dollars (19.4 billion US dollars), RIA Novosti reported .
In addition to the amphibious assault in Taiwan or in the peripheral archipelagos, the PLA command is considering the possibility of launching a large-scale missile strike - this follows from the Global Times report on the results of the Common Sword exercise.
The conditional launch of the missiles was carried out by ships of the Chinese Navy in tandem with coastal-based missile and assault groups and aviation. The strike was launched simultaneously from the territory of the PRC, as well as from areas north, east and south of Taiwan.
The targets of the training launches were the positions of the island army - the Taiwan Self-Defense Forces, airfields, communication centers, as well as mobile targets, Zhao Xiaozhuo, a researcher at the PLA Academy of Military Sciences, explained to the Global Times .
Earlier, the Chinese authorities have repeatedly announced their intention to inflict such a crushing blow, but the Western media urges not to pay special attention to these threats. But, as Kashin noted, a large-scale missile attack on Taiwan is by no means a bluff, but one of the most likely scenarios for the development of the conflict.
“China ranks first in the world in terms of the number of medium and short-range cruise ballistic missiles, ” the source recalled. “ They also hold the first place in terms of the number of long-range multiple rocket launchers capable of striking at a distance of up to 200 km. When using special types of missiles - at a distance of about 500 km.
That they are capable of launching an impressive number of missiles at Taiwan is an obvious fact. And what’s more, Taiwan has no way to repel such a strike with the available forces and means of anti-missile defense.”
The United States is aware of the threat of a large-scale missile attack on Taiwan, in connection with which it is actively taking measures to strengthen the air defense and missile defense system of the unrecognized (including those not recognized by Washington) island state. In 2022, the US State Department approved the allocation of funds for the purchase of Patriot complexes, Reuters reported .
But the ability of these systems to repel large-scale rocket attacks is seriously limited, as shown by the experience of their use during the conflict between Yemen and Saudi Arabia. A possible solution to the task of protecting Taiwan from a missile threat would be the deployment of Israeli Iron Dome missile defense systems on the island. According to some reports, which, in particular, were voiced by The Wall Street Journal , the US Army command is developing scenarios to repel a Chinese missile attack using these complexes. However, according to Kashin, Taiwan should not rely on the supply of Israeli weapons.
“Such rumors may appear, but there are doubts that Israel will supply weapons to Taiwan,” the source said. “ Israel did not even go for direct deliveries of weapons to Ukraine. And China has the most powerful leverage on Israel. China is the most powerful partner in politics and economics for the rest of the Middle East, which are generally unfriendly towards Israel. Therefore, the likelihood that they will supply arms to Taiwan, even if the supplies are mediated by the United States, is small.”
It can be stated that Taiwan and its allies at the current stage will find it difficult to resist Chinese firepower. Beijing is well aware of the weaknesses in the enemy's defense, and the Common Sword military exercises have shown that China is ready to take back Taiwan by military means. However, the final decision of this issue remains with the political leadership of the country.
April 10, 2023
Sergey Adamov