Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin:
[ColonelCassad] Regarding reasonable doubts and about the authenticity of the published documents on the preparation of the Ukrainian offensive in the Zaporozhye region, then of course there is historical predecessors, such as Operation Minced Meat, when the British intelligence services took systemic measures to strategically disinform the Wehrmacht command in order to hide the direction of the main attack by throwing in relatively plausible documents for the purpose of disinformation.
On the other hand, there are examples like the story of Major Reichel's briefcase, when, due to a series of accidents, the real plans for Operation Blau fell into the hands of the Soviet command, which did not prevent the Wehrmacht from playing according to these plans in the future. Actually, the task of the General Staff and our intelligence is precisely to determine the real direction of the enemy's main attack and to separate real information from enemy disinformation.
From more recent examples, one can recall how, under the hype of an imminent attack on Kherson, the enemy was preparing a strike near Balakleya, which was also not some kind of secret, but was clearly underestimated by our command and had operational consequences.
Accordingly, despite the obvious potential of the enemy's actions in the Zaporozhye direction, disinformation measures aimed at hiding the direction of the main attack cannot be ruled out.
The scenario where strikes in the Zaporozhye direction can be restrictive and auxiliary, and the main blow will be in the Svatovsky / Belgorod or Volnovakha direction - is quite a working one.
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From V Kontakte page of Military Chronicle:
'07.04.23. Note from the channel 'Military Chronicle.'
[VK] “What is wrong with the “secret plan” of the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine: Analysis of the Military Chronicle
On April 6 , photographs of a document appeared with details of the planned Ukrainian offensive. The “leakage” of documents coincided with news that NATO’s Defender 2023 exercise, scheduled for late April, could become a front for an operation to supply and support Ukrainian units. However, a closer look at the document raises doubts about its authenticity.
When did he appear?
Allegedly secret plans to support the offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine hit the Internet the day before the statement by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken about the start of an imminent offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The US Secretary of State said the offensive would begin "within a few weeks."
What information does it contain?
Leakage of documents of this kind has never occurred since the very beginning of the NWO in Ukraine. It is noteworthy that right now, the published plans included not only data with a schedule for supplying Ukrainian units with NATO weapons and ammunition, but also information about the structure of brigades and battalions allegedly prepared for the offensive.
The document, dated March 1, contains information that for the offensive, the brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine need 253 tanks, more than 380 infantry fighting vehicles and armored personnel carriers, 480 vehicles, 147 artillery pieces and 571 HMMWV armored vehicles.
What data is most questionable?
The probable location of Russian units on the map of hostilities (they are indicated in red) is presumably collected from open sources. Several pro-Ukrainian resources for tracking hostilities at once contain almost identical information.
Also, in the “secret plans” that got into the Internet, the ratio of killed and wounded of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation at the moment was changed. At first, the losses of the Ukrainian side were underestimated and were estimated at about 16.5-17 thousand people. Then (probably for realism) they increased by almost five times - up to 65-70 thousand people. At the same time, the allegedly known losses of the RF Armed Forces in equipment coincide with the data published by the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine.
What else is wrong with the published offensive plans of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
The frank falsification of data on the readiness of the APU units is striking. The document states that out of nine brigades of the Armed Forces of Ukraine allegedly trained by March 31 and April 30 according to US and NATO standards, five formations have a zero level of training: these are the 82nd airborne brigade, the 32nd, 117th and 118th territorial defense brigades, as well as 21 I am a separate mechanized brigade.
Even if only two or three companies were trained in these brigades, and the training itself was not completed, there can be no zero level of training. At the same time, the highest percentage of unit readiness was recorded only in the 47th mechanized brigade (40%) and the 46th air assault brigade (60%) of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
What is the result?
Also in the offensive plan, an irrelevant amount of military equipment is mentioned.
For example, out of 109 M2 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles sent by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, for some reason only 99 participate in the offensive. Moreover, the vehicles are not distributed among brigades and are enrolled in only one formation - the 47th mechanized brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which does not have heavy tanks.
Instead of the Soviet T-72 or T-64BV, this brigade has only Slovak T-55S with 105 mm guns, which are difficult to use in a large-scale offensive.
Small errors and inaccuracies in the calculation of equipment, the history of adjusting losses, as well as the presence of brigades with "zero" readiness indicate that the document, issued as a secret plan, was probably prepared and distributed not by the military, but by a group of civilian, probably pro-Ukrainian analysts .
The purpose of this stuffing may be to underestimate the real number of units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine combat-ready and deployed for the offensive or to divert attention from other events related to the real offensive.