[REGNUM] In the State Department and at the same time in the leading Western media, the Belarusian opposition was “reanimated”, both respectable and radical, but equally written off after the failure of the Minsk Maidan in 2020. However, there is no big difference between extremists fighting for the Armed Forces of Ukraine and “legitimate leaders” like Svyatlana Tikhanovskaya. The reason for the new US interest in the "democratic movement" is obvious. But does Washington have the necessary tools to stir up the situation in Russia's union republic?
The mainstream Western media, coincidentally, remembered the Belarusian opposition, which seemed to have fallen out of the spotlight a few months after the failed attempt to oust Alexander Lukashenko in the summer and fall of 2020.
The London-based The Economist on March 30 devoted a lot of material to some Belarusian “cyber guerrillas,” a group of “anonymous dissidents” who are ready to hack state servers and use “terabytes of hacked data to help Ukraine”, “identify Russian and Belarusian spies” and at the same time bring down the “authoritarian regime” President Lukashenko.
"Svetlana Tikhanovskaya , the candidate who undoubtedly won the election that Lukashenka stole in 2020, kept the opposition flag flying from exile in Lithuania; but the radicals want more," writes the Economist. The publication claims that in December 2022, "cyber partisans" established interaction "with the regiment named after Kastus Kalinouski, Belarusian volunteers who are fighting the Russians in Ukraine." A unit with this name, made up of Belarusian nationalists, is indeed listed as part of the "International Legion" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
"Belarusians must be ready," a certain Pavel Kutkha, a recruiter of the regiment named after A. Kalinovsky in Warsaw, who collects ammunition for the militants who are now "fighting in the Bakhmut citadel", that is, they are in the group of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in Artyomovsk.
These groups "see themselves as a new force that could challenge" the more cautious Tikhanovskaya, Yekaterina Glod, a former European Endowment for Democracy representative in Belarus and now of the London-based European Leadership Network, told the Economist. "These people wanted Tikhanovskaya to become a “leader in exile who could create a liberation army," but were disappointed by her passivity, says Artyom Shraibman, another expert who emigrated from Belarus, an analyst at the Carnegie Endowment .
But, the Economist notes, Tikhanovskaya herself is trying not to miss the trend. She called the militants of the "Kalinovsky regiment" heroes and established ties with the ByPol group, which allegedly unites about 600 former intelligence officers, the British publication emphasizes.
ByPol "train partisans in Poland and conduct operations in Belarus." They allegedly also "attack on a Russian air base near Minsk" - apparently, the incident at the Belarusian Air Force base in Machulishchi on February 26 is implied.
Almost simultaneously, an editorial was published in The Washington Post focusing on the proposal of Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen, who specializes in Eastern Europe. The senator appealed to the Joe Biden administration (more specifically, to Secretary of State Anthony Blinken ) with a call to establish the post of US Special Representative for Belarus "to better support the democratic movement" in this country. The State Department reacted and announced its intention to appoint such a representative to work with the Belarusian opposition, TASS reported.
The idea of Senator Sheikhin appeared after her communication with Tikhanovskaya, who was visiting Washington. On March 28 , National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met with the self-proclaimed leader of the opposition .
A similar position - special representative for Venezuela - was established in the structure in 2019, when Washington most actively supported the opposition's attempts to overthrow Nicolas Maduro and bring in an alternative president, Juan Guaidó, in his place. The Spanish agency EFE pointed out a curious moment - Tikhanovskaya and the current leader of the Venezuelan opposition Leopoldo Lopez were simultaneously invited to the event in the US Senate.
"Until 2022, there was a US special envoy for Belarus, he was not called that way, but he was. When at the beginning of 2021 Belarus did not issue a visa to the appointed US ambassador, the representative of the US diplomatic mission, Julie Fisher, went to Vilnius and performed this role," Belarusian political scientist Yevgeny Preygerman told REGNUM.
The answer to the question why Washington decided to reactivate the “Venezuelan scenario” in Belarus, which did not work in 2020, and why the opposition (which has gone to the periphery of the media agenda in the past two years) has again become the focus of attention - the answer to this question, according to in fact, The Washington Post herself gave in an editorial.
It is dedicated to the agreement between Moscow and Minsk on the preparation by Belarus of infrastructure and carriers for the possible deployment of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. The Democratic opposition, led in exile by Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, the legitimate winner of the 2020 presidential election, opposed the deployment of nuclear warheads in Belarus and demanded the withdrawal of Russian troops from the country .
If Washington has staked on a new Minsk Maidan led by a legitimate winner or new forces, then there are radicals ready to radicalize the protest, following the example of the Kyiv Maidan in 2014. Moscow does not rule out that Kiev could transfer sabotage groups from among Belarusian nationalists to Belarus in order to overthrow the leadership of the republic, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Mikhail Galuzin said on March 29 in an interview with RTVI.
The question is whether Kyiv or its Western curators will find a base for mass discontent. In 2020, the reason was the presidential elections, the next election cycle will be in 2026, and now there is no clear reason for new rallies, political analyst Kirill Yemelyanov told REGNUM news agency.
The vast majority of Belarusians would not want the republic to be directly involved in hostilities in Ukraine, Preygerman believes. Although the messages appearing in the media on this topic disturb the society, but, he is sure, these sentiments are unlikely to become a trigger for public protests.
"After all, there is no such formulation of the question - about the participation of Belarus - in the negotiations between Moscow and Minsk. For Moscow, as I understand it, it is more important and more profitable to have Minsk in the quality it has now, including from the point of view of the Belarusian military-industrial complex," the Belarusian expert believes.
It is unlikely that Lukashenko himself plans to go beyond the assistance that Belarus is already providing to Russia (from providing territory for the Russian Armed Forces, creating a joint group of troops to agreeing to prepare infrastructure for Russian nuclear weapons), Averyanov is sure.
"Precisely because the resumption of protests is theoretically possible, Belarus will not join the NWO. The inclusion of the country in the NWO is categorically disadvantageous for Lukashenka, so he will not agree to this," the interlocutor argues. "But this is also unprofitable for Russia: the entry of Belarus means that the front line will approximately double, along the Ukrainian-Belarusian border, and will pass next to the second largest city of the republic, Gomel. Will the 60,000-strong Belarusian army be able to hold back the front line without combat experience? Obviously not. And the participation of the Armed Forces of Belarus in the NMD is unlikely to help change the course of hostilities.
Moreover, Averyanov believes, the Belarusian president expects that the deployment of Russian nuclear weapons in the republic will remain a theoretical possibility - a threat that should bring the West to reason.
The question, in fact, about the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus has not yet been resolved, the interlocutor emphasized.
"Lukashenko can backfire," Averyanov suggested . - In 2015, Putin signed a decree on the creation of a Russian air base in Belarus, and Lukashenka did everything to prevent the air base from appearing. It is possible that the situation will be the same now."
In any case, the Belarusian authorities seek to maintain the status quo, in which the situation inside the republic is under control, and the leaders of the opposition are limited to loud statements from emigration.
As for the plans of the United States, which decided to give the "democratic movement" a curator from the State Department, it is obvious that they are trying to use an instrument that is not very suitable, Preygerman believes.
"The instrument of the special envoy did not give much then, in 2020-2021, when it seemed to many that the situation was more precarious in Belarus. Now it is hardly possible to expect that something can be achieved through this toolkit," the interlocutor believes. Preigerman admits: the new excitement around the Belarusian opposition is "a way for specific politicians and diplomats to earn political points, in order to later say that the agenda of US President Joe Biden to promote democracy is being carried out."
But even if the bet is made seriously, Washington, remembering Tikhanovskaya, Pavel Latushko and their associates, bets on already played pieces, Averyanov believes. "The former opposition missed its political chance and lost the fight. Any pumping of them from Washington or other Western capitals does not make much sense," the expert believes.
But in this regard, the media coverage of new forces in the form of hacker groups and nationalist militants who have been tested in the Donbass looks indicative. It cannot be ruled out that the West has already made a big bet not so much on mass protests, but on a subversive struggle by the forces of a radical minority, about which Belarusian law enforcement officers also warn.
March 31, 2023
Alexander Tishchenko