Commentary by Russian blogger Donetsk
[DonRF] I found in one chat a completely scientific article about the first phase of the special operation. It is interesting in her attempts to comprehend what is happening and in the analysis of forces in the spring of 2022. There is no link, the file hung in PDF format. Author - Alexey Krivopalov.
So, about the forces - at the beginning of the operation - one BTG per 5.5 km of the front. In total, up to 200,000 people, together with the Corps, most of which were mobilized rifle regiments. Without technology and with a minimum of weapons. The enemy has 130,000 people on February 24 and 200,000 after the first stage of mobilization. I mean active bayonets. More rears. I drew the directions of the blows on a very clumsy map. And very conditional. More is not needed. Why?
And because even on the clumsy map you can see that there was NO decisive blow. Lugansk 2nd Army Corps went to the North, Donetsk 1st Army Corps - to the South, the mobilized regiments rushed to Avdeevka and Maryinka. The Russian Armed Forces in the North simultaneously attacked Sumy, Chernihiv and Kharkov. At the same time, he is also trying to take Kyiv. In the South "more fun" just. The southern group struck along the sea - access to Odessa, Krivoy Rog, Zaporozhye, and Mariupol through Berdyansk.
In the meantime, the enemy closed in the cities, not really engaging in a field battle, and acting with the forces of the DRG, along communications. As a result, the tasks of the RF Armed Forces have multiplied:
1. Continue the offensive deep into Ukraine.
2. Take the blocked cities.
3. Protect your communications (70,000 Russian guards under the article for 2,000 kilometers of the front)
As a result, the following came out, point by point:
1. Lugansk 2nd Army Corps ran into the triangle of Severodonetsk-Lysichansk-Rubezhnoye
2. Donetsk 1st Army Corps was able to take Mariupol, together with the RF Armed Forces
3. Russian 20th Army reached Balakleya
4. Chernihiv was besieged
5. Stuck in the Sumy region
6. Kiev was semi-sieged.
7. Kryvyi Rih and Zaporizhia were not taken
8. The breakthrough to Odessa failed near Nikolaev and Voznesensk
Running after 13 hares did not work out. Why? The reasons are more political. Another thing is interesting - what's next? And then, if you do not wage a positional war to the point of melting, the only option looms - the creation of a powerful strike force in a decisive direction. And the creation for her of all the necessary stocks. Ensuring its air cover (up to 200 sorties per day) and striking. Kyiv can become such a direction. Maybe Kharkov. Maybe Zaporozhye. But not the DPR, where all the settlements are fortresses, and where only heavy battles are possible with an advance of a kilometer or two, and a breakthrough is impossible in principle. Simply due to the oversaturation of the territory with lines of defense and reserves.
The occupied part of the DPR is a continuous military camp. In addition, heavily mined. It is pointless to catch anything on its territory. Is it possible to push out of the territory for at least a year, step by step, moving through the ruins to the borders of the region. Provided that the enemy does not collect YOUR fist. And he collected it. More precisely, he collected two fists:
1. Northern, capable of striking at the line of Svatovo-Kremennaya or Bakhmut
2. Southern. Which, according to thought, should make a breakthrough to the Crimea.
Plus four auxiliary groups - in the area of Maryinka, Avdievka, Vugledar, and Kherson. Which led the Armed Forces of Ukraine to the situation of chasing six birds with one stone at the same time, and in general weakens their strike potential. They can improve the situation by surrendering Bakhmut, Marinka and Avdievka, but they cannot surrender them for political reasons. The whole point of the current situation is that one side DOES NOT WANT to assemble a strike force capable of conducting an effective offensive in depth, the second CANNOT do this, because it is chasing POLITICAL goals.
However, they will try to use both fists. You have to PAY for Western aid.
By blood. And we will try to reflect them. Having previously smeared, with local attacks on their auxiliary groups. Come out - get a classic stalemate. Until the superiority of one of the parties on a new one. It won't work out - depending on how it doesn't work out.
The war has entered a stage when, without truly serious forces, access to the operational space is impossible. Which both sides regularly prove. Even the unlimited source of people in Kyiv is unable to correct the situation. In principle, the enemy’s offensive will show what the 2023 military year will be like. And what to expect in the year 2024.
So far, it is only clear that the manuals in the style of the US war against Iraq do not work in principle. More precisely, they work, but on the condition that the elites have betrayed, the army is demotivated and does not properly own its weapons. Now both sides are not. However, the choice of positional warfare is also possible. And even the entry into battle of EU troops is possible. The Overton window is now such that everything is possible in principle.
From regnum.ru
Czech general urged not to consider tanks sent to Ukraine as miracle weapons
Perpetuating the myth that German Leopard tanks are miracle weapons is part of the propaganda, Jiri Šediva, former Chief of the Czech Army General Staff, said in an interview with Czdefence.
According to him, the difficulties with the supply of weapons to Ukraine are due to the fact that " no one believed " in the inevitability of this war. As a result, Europe has the opportunity to supply Ukraine with only Leopard tanks, mostly their old versions.
"This, again, is part of the propaganda, because the Leopard tanks are being touted as some kind of “wonder weapon”, which is definitely not true," Shedivy said.
As for the American Abrams tanks, Ukraine will be able to receive them at best in a year, and for Kyiv, deliveries will be belated, even if the tanks arrive in May or June, the general noted. He also called the amount of heavy equipment insufficient for the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the shipment of which is being discussed, recalling that Turkey in Syria "lost at least 10 tanks in just a few operations."
As REGNUM reported , on March 31, Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine Andriy Melnyk said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine did not have enough tanks to launch a counteroffensive. According to him, Ukraine received 50-60 units of heavy equipment from the West.
The Russian army received several hundred of the latest tanks for use in the special military operation zone, it was reported on March 29.
More from regnum.ru
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine announced the lack of tanks for the counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
The Armed Forces of Ukraine do not have enough tanks to launch a counteroffensive, said Andriy Melnyk, Deputy Foreign Minister of Ukraine . His words are published by the German edition Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung .
According to Melnyk, there are no conditions for a counteroffensive, because the Ukrainian army has only 50-60 tanks sent by the West.
"The Russians, both now and in the past, are capable of producing or putting into service up to ten tanks daily. And this means that we will be unable to achieve a decisive advantage on the battlefield for a long time to come," Malnik stated.
He also recalled that Ukraine is waiting for the dispatch of fighters from Europe, and there should be no “red lines” for this.
As REGNUM reported, on March 27, Ukraine received 18 Leopard 2 tanks from Germany.
For use in the special military operation zone, the Russian army received several hundred of the latest tanks, an informed source reported on March 29.
From RIA Novosti
The Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine announced the completion of the formation of brigades of the "Offensive Guard"
The head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, Igor Klymenko, announced the creation of eight brigades of the Offensive Guard.
"To date, eight brigades have been formed, and we are ready for active offensive measures," he said on the air of the telethon.
It was assumed that the Guards project would unite six existing units in the structure of the Ministry of Internal Affairs - Hurricane, Krasnaya Kalina, Kara-Dag, Rubezh, Spartan and Azo, as well as two new ones. In addition, Kyiv has formed a brigade of the State Border Service "Steel Border" and an assault brigade of the National Police "Fury."
Earlier, the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Ukraine reported that assault brigades from the military, police and border guards were being trained to seize the Crimea and Donbass.
After the start of the special operation, the Kiev regime has repeatedly spoken about plans to launch an offensive operation on the peninsula, including against the backdrop of reports of new deliveries of Western weapons. In Crimea, such attempts were called suicidal, noting that it was simply impossible to seize part of the territory from a powerful nuclear power.
As Apty Alaudinov , commander of the Akhmat special forces operating in the special operation zone, said earlier today , if Kiev decides to launch a counteroffensive, this will "become its swan song," since the Ukrainian troops will no longer have reserves.