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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather- |
Long La Nina is finally over |
2023-03-21 |
![]() The forecaster consensus is indeed very confident that neutral conditions will remain through the spring...will El Niño develop? If we can anticipate an El Niño, we can anticipate an increased likelihood of its impacts on weather and climate. In contrast, a continuation of neutral conditions means the tropical Pacific Ocean will not be an actor on the world's climate stage. The lack of El Niño or La Niña means that there is no seasonal-scale influence from the Pacific to push around the global atmospheric circulation and influence seasonal climate patterns. Many of our computer climate models are predicting a transition into El Niño sometime later this year. However, right now is a very tricky time of year for the models, due to the "spring predictability barrier." ENSO events peak in the winter and tend to decay and transition in the spring, so models often don't have a lot of strong signals to go on. (Why do ENSO events peak in the winter?? This is a really complicated topic that we don't have a simple, satisfactory answer to... (yet!) It could be warmer. Or colder. Dryer. Or wetter. Magic 8-Ball says: "It is not determined" |
Posted by:lord garth |
#2 So with less air movement there will be more smog for the cities. Not a bad thing I guess. Fewer skin cancers. |
Posted by: Skidmark 2023-03-21 12:01 |
#1 This is a really complicated topic that we don't have a simple, satisfactory answer to.. And yet we'll scream Climate Catastrophe for |
Posted by: Procopius2k 2023-03-21 07:43 |