Commentary by Russian military blogger Andrey Chervonets
Chervonets is talking about the function equivalent of a modern NATO corps is gathering for what appears to be a counteroffensive. Chervonets is the go to guy for the "inside baseball" stuff we know about Russian military activities since 2014
What the "musicians" are sounding the alarm about, I told this morning
From open sources, I mean the Ukrainian TG channel "Resident" (this TG channel is definitely not for Zelensky and is always distinguished by truthful information and accurate inside information), reports on the preparation of a counteroffensive APU near Artyomovsk. Kyiv's goal is to prevent Wagner PMC (pictured) from encircling the city.
The APU strike is expected next week. Now the equipment from Zaporozhye is being transferred to the front of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Syrsky, the commander of the grouping in this direction, wants to use the experience of the Kharkov counteroffensive and deliver cutting blows to the rear of the RF Armed Forces along the flanks.
For these purposes:
In the Artyomovsk region, the Center group was concentrated, which should attack the front:
- 93rd Separate Mechanized,
- 56th Separate Motorized Infantry Brigade,
- 24th Separate Mechanized Brigade,
- 77th Separate Airmobile Brigade,
- 46th Separate Airmobile Brigade ,
- 3rd operational Brigade,
- 4th operational Brigade,
- 226th Separate Artillery Brigade.
Group North in the Slavyansk direction is concentrated:
- 4th Separate Tank Brigade,
- 44th Separate Artillery Brigade,
- 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade,
- 67th Mechanized Brigade from the task of hitting the right flank (north of Bakhmut) from towards Soledar.
In Seversk, an additional group was formed to strike at Soledar, the 81st Separate Airmobile Brigade and part of the 10th Separate Mountain Assault Brigade.
Group South must unblock the roads to Artyomovsk, in the area of Konstantinovka and Belokuzminovka (towards (through Chasov Yar) Bogdanovka and Ivanovsky (Red)):
- 45th Separate Artillery Brigade,
- 80th Separate Air Assault Brigade,
- 47th Separate Mechanized Brigade,
- 28th Separate Mechanized Brigade,
- 17th Separate Tank Brigade.
Additionally In the area of Ivanpolye and Toretsk 5th Separate Assault Brigade.
There are 18 Brigades in total. Moreover, in its mass it is the best forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
All this information is from open sources. And without difficulty, AT DESIRE, checked, double-checked and double-checked again. I remember the "regrouping" near Kharkov. Only the lazy did not know about the preparation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for their counterattack. But the General Staff of the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, as reality showed, did not own the real situation in this direction. I would not like a repetition.
More from Andrey Chervonets:
"Musicians" are sounding the alarm
Yevgeny Prigozhin, head of the Wagner PMC, says that the situation with the supply of ammunition for the main positions has NOT CHANGED.
Previously, he talked about their lack. The head of the PMC of the Ministry of Defense himself was turned off all special telephones and his passes were canceled. That is, it turns out that coordination with the Ministry of Defense for Prigozhin is now blocked.
I'm wondering, those who gave the order to do so, do they adequately perceive both their actions and the surrounding reality?
Everyone is now running around with the Great Patriotic War, and the situation is reminiscent of the First World War. Brusilovsky breakthrough. When Brusilov rolled out the Austrians and Germans, but in conditions when he had four each! a shot on the barrel was forced to withdraw with heavy losses. And Kuropatkin (yes, the same one) and his comrades sat idle nearby with stocked warehouses and did not conduct military operations.
Prigozhin also says that the Armed Forces of Ukraine created four groups to strike the Wagner PMC on the flanks in order to unblock Artyomovsk (Bakhmut). In Slavyansk and Seversk, north of the city; in Hours of Yarei Konstantinovka, to the west and southwest of the city.
Evgeny Viktorovich is now knocking on all doors, sounding the alarm with ammunition and reinforcements, as well as so that the PMC, which surrounds the city, covers the flanks.
If, due to the inaction of the Ministry of Defense, another so-called "regrouping" occurs, it will be a complete ales. Near Kharkov, too, 2-3 weeks before the offensive, all the bells were sounded, but apparently telegrams are not read in the Ministry of Defense. And for some reason, the blow of the Armed Forces of Ukraine for the Russian generals turned out to be a complete surprise. How will it be this time?
By the way, there is one interesting TG-channel "Resident", Ukrainian, which always gave, ahead of many, truthful and repeatedly confirmed later information. There were sometimes such leaks of information that I thought that they were written by ours, but under the Ukrainian sign. However, later I realized that this was not the case.
Otherwise, the Russian General Staff would have had similar information. What is not observed. And an interesting situation looms when there is a lot of useful information in open sources, but no one checks data from open sources in the RF Ministry of Defense. Well, it seems to me, based on practice. And it is always much easier to double-check something than not to own the data at all, agree?
So, now the same source writes that Andriy Yermak assured Sullivan of the successful outcome of the counterattack of the Armed Forces of Ukraine near Bakhmut and of repeating the September scenario in the Kharkiv direction.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine have concentrated 12 Brigades and these are the MOST trained units of the Ukrainian army. The head of the President's Office focused on the contradictions between PMC Wagner and the Russian army, which should help the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the implementation of the Syrsky plan, which commands this direction.
The counterattack near Bakhmut has been postponed until next week, Syrsky is personally preparing units to attack Russian positions from three directions. The commander of the ground forces created three groups (North / Center / South), which, according to the plan, should cut the Russian troops and force them to retreat.
Why am I writing this? The situation with the cover of the flanks of the PMC "Wagner" in Artyomovsk worries me, so I react as best I can. Then, so that only Shoigu and Gerasimov would not say "we did not know" or "we had to regroup again." Because if, despite all the warnings, "thunder strikes" again (and this has already happened several times before), huge questions will arise, specifically for these two.