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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| About the upcoming Ukrainians spring military campaign |
| 2023-03-05 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. Text written by a Telegram blogger named ramzai [ColonelCassad] The less time remains before the announced and pre-advertised spring offensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, the more questions arise about what kind of know-how Zaluzhny and his headquarters are going to use to achieve the announced ambitious goal - inflicting a strategic defeat on the Russian army. Undoubtedly, the group, which is now undergoing further formation and combat coordination in the rear areas of Ukraine and at the training grounds of Western countries, is going to be powerful. This is at least a third of the entire ground grouping available to the Armed Forces of Ukraine - about thirty infantry, airborne, airborne assault and mountain assault brigades. At least six tank brigades. At least six artillery brigades. As well as parts of the "special forces" of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the "National Guard". The total strength of the strike force can reach 140-160 thousand people. It consists of at least 400 tanks, at least 350 guns, up to 100 MLRS, of which at least 30 high-precision systems "Hymars", "Mars" and their other Western counterparts. It is obvious that under this offensive, the Armed Forces of Ukraine received a sufficient amount of ammunition, spare parts and fuel and lubricants. According to the rules of military science, these forces will most likely be divided into two strike groups, each of which will have its own task. One blow will be the main one, and the second will be an auxiliary and distracting one. At the same time, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be ready to transfer forces from any direction to where success is most manifested, as was the case with the September offensive near Kharkov, which began as an auxiliary, but as it developed, it became the main one. What will the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine bet on in the upcoming offensive? Of course, it will try to achieve tactical surprise in the choice of strike sites and a decisive superiority - not less than seven to one in these areas. The second task that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to achieve in the very first hours of the offensive is to defeat Russian headquarters, combat control systems, communications, as well as destroy ammunition depots and fuel and lubricants at the maximum depth achievable for their weapons - up to 80 km, causing paralysis combat control and chaos in the rear. For this, high-precision MLRS, as well as kamikaze drones, the deliveries of which to the Armed Forces of Ukraine are now in full swing, will be involved. The success of solving this problem directly depends on how much intelligence of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, based on the technical capabilities of American intelligence and intelligence of NATO countries, will be able to open the military infrastructure of the RF Armed Forces in the offensive zone. Now the Americans and NATO have thrown all their efforts into identifying such objects. NATO intelligence activity along our borders, has reached its maximum and it would be correct to consider that the entire military infrastructure of the RF Armed Forces in the front line has been opened and marked on the staff maps of Ukrainians. Experts believe that the recent decrease in strikes by high-precision systems of the Armed Forces of Ukraine against Russian headquarters and control centers is due not so much to the fact that the Ukrainians cannot detect them, but to the fact that they are not specifically attacking them now in order to reach them at the start of the offensive. maximum surprise and maximum damage. The third task that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to solve to ensure the success of the offensive is the task of isolating the areas where the Ukrainian troops will advance. The goal is to prevent the transfer of reserves, the supply of fuel and lubricants, ammunition to these areas and the organized withdrawal of troops. These tasks have been practiced by the artillery of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in different sectors of our defense over the past weeks with varying degrees of success. At the same time, it is quite obvious that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to use our own know-how against us - an artillery offensive, which will create the maximum concentration of artillery in the direction of strikes. But, inferior to us in the number of artillery, the Armed Forces of Ukraine rely on the high accuracy of Western systems and the use of the latest means of controlling artillery fire. In general, one of the main stakes of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the upcoming offensive is the hope for the “digitization” of new groups and the conduct of a network-centric war, which should give the Ukrainians the main superiority over the enemy. By providing an advantage in reconnaissance, detection of the enemy, the speed of striking him and the accuracy of defeat. Over the past few months, the brigades assigned to the rear to complete and form strike groups have been receiving the latest American digital combat control systems and learning how to use them. The command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine considers its top priority to break through the first line of defense as quickly as possible, where, according to Ukrainian generals and their NATO advisers, the most battle-hardened and experienced Russian units are stationed. Inflicting maximum damage on them, as well as preventing their organized retreat to the second line of defense, where there are poorly trained regiments, which do not have enough military equipment and heavy weapons, formed from “mobilized” soldiers, who, in the event of a breakthrough in their positions by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, will hardly whether they will be able to offer serious resistance if units of the “first line” cannot withdraw here. Therefore, most likely, the offensive will not be conducted according to the usual pattern of this war - the slow "gnawing" of the defense, but according to American standards - maximum fire superiority and ramming strikes on, American advisers are rushing the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine with the offensive as much as possible, while there is still a critical imbalance in the RF Armed Forces between well-equipped equipment, weapons and trained personnel, units, and a large number of "fortified" regiments, many of which do not have not only their own artillery and tanks, but even vehicles for their normal supply. Whose command staff has no combat experience and mainly consists of the same "reservists", many of whom did not serve in the army and are graduates of military departments of universities. The combat value of such regiments is conditional and, in defense against a well-trained and equipped enemy, they have almost no chance. Undoubtedly, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is preparing for the offensive and an ace in the hole. Experts believe that this may well be the massive use of strike drones, and especially kamikaze drones, with the help of which the Ukrainian command will try to inflict maximum damage on Russian artillery and military equipment in positions, hunt for rear transport columns and moving troops on the roads. It is also impossible to exclude a massive UAV attack on objects in Russia to a depth of 800-1000 km. We have been observing attempts to probe our air defense system over the past weeks. Strengths of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the future offensive: - Experienced operational-tactical command. The battalion commanders and brigade commanders of the Armed Forces of Ukraine are experienced military leaders who have gone through at least a year of the war, and many have been fighting since 2014-15. - A well-organized vertical of combat control, based on closed communication systems, digital information exchange systems, combat control. military internet. But, in addition to the strengths, there are also weaknesses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which will not be easy for the command to compensate for: - Low quality of Ukrainian infantry. The motivation of the majority of Ukrainians mobilized in recent months is extremely low. The number of people among them with service experience is approaching zero. Most, for one and a half - two months of training, receive only initial military training. Therefore, despite the huge propaganda of the “victory” of the coming offensive, the Ukrainian military leadership does not have complete confidence in its success. A number of critical success and failure factors are in the zone of uncertainty. So far, the combat grouping has not reached the required combat parameters. Part of the equipment and weapons continue to arrive, the supply of ammunition is in full swing, but they are still not enough to meet all the needs of a large-scale offensive. The deliveries of Leopard heavy tanks are being delayed, on which a special stake is being placed in the future offensive. Ukraine has not yet received medium-range (up to 500 km) tactical missiles. The level of training of the personnel of the newly formed brigades is assessed as low. And, most likely, some of these uncertainties will remain at least until mid-April. A separate problem is the answer to the question - will the Armed Forces of Ukraine be able to achieve tactical surprise in the beginning of the offensive. From this directly depends on its further course. Russian intelligence also conducts continuous monitoring and collection of information about the enemy, and underestimating its capabilities can be very costly for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The Russian military command has gained a lot of combat experience and will try not to repeat its past mistakes. The spring military campaign in Ukraine will be the most important stage of the current "hot phase" of the Russian-American war, as a result of which it will become completely clear whether the United States and its allies will be able to stop the Russian advance and inflict a sensitive military defeat on Russia, or whether they will have to move on to the "plan "B" - look for ways to save the existing Ukrainian regime and start peace talks with Russia. The stakes for both sides are maximum! https://t.me/ramzayiegokomanda/1898 - zinc |
| Posted by:badanov |