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| 'A kind word and a Colt.' With what Anthony Blinken arrived in Central Asia |
| 2023-03-01 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. [REGNUM] US Foreign Policy Chief Anthony Blinken is making his first visit to Kazakhstan. This will be followed by a visit to Uzbekistan and face-to-face conversations with colleagues. The head of the State Department began his trip around the post-Soviet region with compliments to Kazakh President Tokayev, including for supporting Kyiv. The neighboring republic has more than once given reason to talk about moving away from Moscow. Is it to be expected that Blinken's voyage will knock her and other countries of Central Asia out of the pro-Russian orbit? US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken arrived last night on his first official visit to Astana, which was the first stop on his trip to Kazakhstan and Central Asia. The head of the State Department approved the "bold reforms" of the Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, thanked him for the creation of the "Yurts of indestructibility" in Kiev and Bucha (we recall that the Kazakh Foreign Ministry denied this private initiative) and for receiving emigrants from Russia Tokayev, at the meeting with Blinken, stressed that Kazakhstan is ready to develop strategic cooperation with the United States, and Blinken's visit is very important for it to receive an additional impetus. After Kazakhstan, the chief of American diplomacy will go to Uzbekistan. Blinken is planned to communicate with the Foreign Ministers of Kazakhstan and Central Asia in the C5 + 1 format and personally with each of the ministers. Among other things, contacts are expected with representatives of Turkmenistan, a republic that has observed the principles of autarky since the early 1990s. Autarky means economic independence The Kremlin did not comment on Blinken 's Kazakh and Central Asian voyage. At the same time, it is obvious that the trip of the US Secretary of State to the former Soviet republics, one of which is a partner in the CSTO and the EAEU, will not go unnoticed by Moscow. Especially if we take into account how ambiguous relations between Moscow and Astana have developed since the beginning of the Russian special operation in Ukraine. Back in March 2022, Timur Suleimenov, the first deputy head of Tokayev’s administration, assured in an interview with Euractiv that Kazakhstan would comply with anti-Russian sanctions, despite membership in the Eurasian Economic Union, since the republic least of all wants to be subject to secondary US and EU sanctions. Kazakhstan will refrain from circumventing sanctions, Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi told the Japanese channel NHK. Tokayev himself stated that Astana does not recognize the "quasi-state formations" of the DPR and LPR. He did not forget to speak out about the fact that Astana will comply with anti-Russian sanctions, although it will not refuse allied obligations towards Russia. In an interview with Rossiya 24, the President of Kazakhstan declared his unwillingness to "serve forever and bow at the feet of Russia." Blinken's visit was preceded by the decision of the Kazakh authorities to liquidate the trade representation in Russia, the official reason for which was the optimization of the work of government agencies. The United States will spur this beneficial process of distancing Kazakhstan and, in general, all the countries of post-Soviet Asia from Russia, believes Andrey Grozin, head of the Kazakhstan and Central Asia department of the Institute of CIS Countries. "Blinken's planned meetings with ministers are precisely the desire to convey the US position to the leadership of the Central Asian republics," Grozin told REGNUM. - The C5 + 1 format was created for this. This is a means of communication between the "Washington regional committee" and the countries of the region. The desire to undock the economies of Central Asia from Russia is a key and irrevocable interest for the United States. This strategy was present even before the crisis in Eastern Europe.” IN WASHINGTON'S ARSENAL - ONLY PRESSURE The question is how Washington will lure the Central Asian republics. In Grozin's opinion, in reality, the US is offering nothing in exchange for undocking Central Asia from Russia. "The Russian-Kazakh trade turnover is tens of billions of dollars," the expert recalled. — The United States does not say at any level that America and its satellites will compensate the countries of Central Asia for the losses that will inevitably follow when these states secede from Russia. That is, there is no question of any compensation." Everything that is offered by the United States so far is all "penny in terms of state budgets," even for such small and poor states as Kyrgyzstan or Tajikistan, the expert emphasized. Nothing is offered for economies and societies. "So Blinken will just push," Grozin is sure. - It is supposed to drag Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to the 'right side of history' only with the help of a kind word and a Colt. And all the projects that the United States tried to implement in Central Asia with the help of not a stick, but a carrot (for example, in the case of the CASA-1000 international energy project ) were unsuccessful." The American prospects look no better in the Uzbek direction, the analyst believes. “Uzbekistan, unlike Kazakhstan, is pursuing a more balanced policy. He does not show any desire to distance himself from Russia," Grozin points out. Kazakhstan demonstrates, "but these demonstrations are mostly ritual in nature," the expert emphasizes. "Yes, large Kazakh business got scared, and it is still holding a pause. This cannot be said about small and medium-sized businesses. Look at the trade turnover between Russia and Kazakhstan at the end of last year. It is growing," Grozin recalled. Despite the difficult geopolitical and economic situation, trade grew by 10% in 2022 to a record level of $22.2 billion, Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin was quoted by RIA Novosti at a meeting with Kazakh President Tokayev in December. And it is growing in quite understandable positions, Grozin emphasized. According to Mishustin, "we are accelerating all the projects that exist between us: in industry, engineering, in the peaceful atom, in agriculture, in digitalization." "The data on Uzbekistan look even more eloquent. Our trade turnover in 2022 amounted to about $9.3 billion. Record figures for all the years of Russian-Uzbek cooperation. In 2023, we, obviously, will exchange ten already," Grozin notes. CENTRAL ASIA WILL NOT BE ABLE TO "MOVE AWAY FROM RUSSIA AND CHINA" In addition, none of the Central Asian republics is interested in spoiling relations with Russia, the expert believes. According to him, all countries in the region understand that Central Asia will become the main battlefield if Russia begins to experience serious difficulties. "No matter what epithets our former Western partners would give Russia, China remains their main adversary. For many, many years," Grozin noted. "Given that Central Asia is sandwiched between Russia and China and will not be able to move anywhere, it is clear that these regimes have an interest in not teasing Russia and China." Otherwise, if they take one side or another, their numerous domestic political problems will sharply worsen, which was demonstrated last year in January in Kazakhstan, in June in Karakalpakstan, and in early autumn on the Tajik-Kyrgyz border. "But the process works great in both directions - if the Central Asian republics choose the 'right side of history,' then they will immediately begin to have huge problems with Moscow, with Beijing, with migrant workers, with the economy, with security, with Afghanistan and everything else," Grozin said. Washington will not be able to "process" another major player - Turkmenistan. "No matter what upheavals take place around Turkmenistan, it always manages to distance itself from full participation in any structures," the interlocutor noted. - And this applies not only to the CIS, but also to the Organization of Turkic States. No matter how much Ankara dragged Ashgabat into a full-fledged membership, nothing came of it. Turkmenistan is an observer everywhere. And there is no reason to believe that now this state of affairs will change. This is the country that the West has the least opportunity to put pressure on. Try to put pressure on North Korea - and this is the same North Korea, only without missiles, but with gas. POSSIBLE WEAK LINK The first president of Kyrgyzstan, Askar Akaev, spoke even more categorically in his comments to REGNUM news agency. He agreed that, most likely, the main goal of Blinken's visit to Kazakhstan is to achieve distancing of Astana and other republics of the region from Russia. "But I don’t think that the Americans could offer Kazakhstan something significant in return," the former head of state emphasized. - In such cases, I always remember the old saying: 'Beware of the Danaans who bring gifts.' And in the current situation, one should be afraid of Americans bringing gifts to this region. It is unlikely that they have gifts that can significantly change the economic situation in Central Asia for the better." According to the ex-president of Kyrgyzstan, there is a weak link in the chain of Central Asian states - a state that risks succumbing to Washington's promises. Akaev believes neighboring Tajikistan could be such a link. This republic can be considered as the weakest militarily state in the region. Also, one should not forget about the more than a thousand-kilometer border with Afghanistan, controlled by the Taliban (the organization is banned in the Russian Federation); about the riots in Gorno-Badakhshan and about border conflicts with Kyrgyzstan. February 28, 2023 Ivan Zhurenkov |
| Posted by:badanov |