[REGNUM] President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko urged to react "to any smallest aggressiveness". This happened just a few hours after a flurry of reports of an attack - either by attack drones of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, or by pro-Ukrainian "Belarusian partisans" at an air base near Minsk.
According to a number of reports, the target of this "aggressiveness" was a Russian reconnaissance aircraft. Why did the leadership of the republic-ally prefer to remain silent?
The security agencies of Belarus must respond "to any slightest aggressiveness," the official BelTA news agency reported the words of Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko at a meeting of the Security Council.
On the eve of his departure for a visit to China, the head of the republic demanded a report on "the military component around our Belarus." Earlier, Lukashenka has repeatedly stated that if the territory of the country is attacked, then the aggressor will be hit back. For example, in September last year, the Belarusian president said : “When we are attacked by other states ... Then, guys, get ready. I am ahead, you are behind me. I do not hide it, but God forbid!"
But as recently as February 26, there were reports that a military facility near Minsk was attacked, which cannot be classified as "the smallest aggressiveness."
Several Belarusian and Russian online resources reported an attack on Machulishchi, the 50th mixed air base of the Belarusian Air Force, located in the vicinity of Minsk.
According to the bypol Telegram channel, on the morning of February 26, the base was attacked by drones that dropped grenades on the aircraft parking lot. As a result of the attack, judging by these reports, an A-50 airborne early warning and control aircraft (AWACS) of the Russian Aerospace Forces was damaged.
The telegram channel figtherbomber, which specializes in air force topics, also confirmed the attack on the Machulishchi airfield, citing its sources. “According to my information, no A-50s were damaged anywhere today,” the author of the channel specified. - There were flights to Machulishchi. And there were results."
Reports that the Russian A-50U reconnaissance aircraft "Sergey Atayants" was based on "Machulishchi" were received back in December 2022 - the Military Review portal informed about this, citing a statement by Ukrainian military intelligence.
As a retired officer of the Russian Aerospace Forces explained to REGNUM, A-50 aircraft can perform the task of monitoring the airspace of Ukraine and NATO countries in the sky of Belarus.
If the attack on February 26 took place and if a Russian plane was there at that moment, then we are talking about an attack on both a Belarusian military facility and a Russian plane.
The attack involved six drones that were launched from the Chernihiv and Kiev regions, according to a source of the Telegram channel “Image of the Future”. It was reported that four UAVs were shot down on approach. One of the survivors was destroyed directly above the base and damaged snowplows, and the last one attacked a Belarusian military aircraft, the fire from which spread to the Russian Aerospace Forces. Later, information appeared that the cockpit and radar were damaged as a result of the impact.
Belarusian political scientist Valery Karbalevich puts forward a different version. Responsibility for the attack on the airfield was taken by the "Belarusian partisans" - "an underground organization consisting of former security officials, which is fighting against the authorities of Belarus and supporting Ukraine," the expert said to IA REGNUM.
"The leaders of this organization have already stated that the perpetrators of this terrorist act have already left Belarus. The question arises - at whom to shoot? Ukraine does not comment on this issue in any way," Karbalevich added.
Officials in the military departments of Russia and Belarus did not comment on the reports of the attack on Machulishchi.
The nature of the attack is still unknown, and it is not known whether it happened, all information is available “only by indirect signs” - this is how the Belarusian political scientist Aleksey Dzermant explained the lack of reaction of the republic’s leadership when instructing the head of state to respond "to the smallest aggressiveness."
"The authorities are currently investigating whether there was something, and if so, from whose territory the launch took place and who is behind it, ” Dzermant emphasized. - Before answering, it is worthwhile to figure out who did it and from whose territory the launch took place - if we are talking about drones. We do not yet know how much damage has been done and whether it is really serious. The authorities of Belarus took a break to conduct an investigation."
He urged to figure out where the attack came from, and then come up with a proportionate response so as not to cause more negative consequences for Belarus: "Taking all this into account, I think we are seeing an operational pause in order to weigh everything very carefully and understand the incident."
Karbalevich puts forward another version of the Republican leadership's silence. He believes that the Belarusian authorities are afraid to destroy the "concept of stability" that has developed over the years.
"The meaning of this concept is that cataclysms are taking place all over the world, military operations are taking place in Ukraine, people are dying of hunger and cold in the West, and in Belarus there is an island of stability," Karbalevich noted.
"And then all of a sudden there’s this explosion. Lukashenko has been convincing for a long time and continues to assert that Belarus is not participating in the hostilities in Ukraine, and that he is the guarantor of peace, and the West wants to draw the country into hostilities. Well, here, it turns out, the war came to the house, because a military facility was attacked near the capital - from the air, and these are not pops and random accidents. That is, the concept of a guarantee of peace has been destroyed."
"A lot of unpleasant questions" appeared to Belarus, and therefore the authorities decided to pretend that nothing happened, the source believes.
"They are waiting for instructions from one person, and if he is silent or does not know the answer to the question, then everyone else is also silent," Karbalevich believes.
Now it is very beneficial for Kiev and Kiev's Western curators to open a second front, which can be observed both in Transnistria and in Belarus, says Dzermant.
"The West needs an expansion of the conflict so that Russia constantly scatters resources. And the events in Transnistria and Belarus will draw additional military resources from Russia and conditionally expand the front line. In this sense, one can understand the restraint of both the Belarusian and Russian authorities: they do not want to follow these goals and involve additional subjects in the conflict, the political scientist explained.
"This motive may also be present: the easiest thing is to start shelling the territory of Ukraine from the territory of Belarus in the heat of the moment, but the consequences can result in the expansion of the conflict very seriously, and the question is whether it is worth answering like that."
February 28, 2023
Sergey Adamov Alexander Tishchenko