[Vesti] Allies step up arms transfer to Ukraine ahead of intensified hostilities
Germany's decision to supply Ukraine with Leopard 2 heavy tanks is the main issue of the current Rammstein . Before this, the eighth in a row, meeting of the heads of defense departments of 50 countries, the purpose of which is to coordinate assistance to Ukraine, Ukraine itself, its closest partners, as well as allies insisted on opening deliveries of heavy offensive tanks. Warsaw even declared that it was ready to transfer these tanks, which are in service with the Polish Army, even without the permission of Berlin, to which the new German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius noted: everything will become clear "in the next few hours."
What exactly became clear to Pistorius, what other weapons are being handed over to Ukraine and how much they can change the situation on the battlefield - Vesti.ua found out.
“TIME REMAINS A WEAPON OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION”
The "maximum program" for Ukraine was announced by Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov: more air defense systems, weapons for offensive operations - tanks, howitzers and ammunition for them. "I'm sure we'll have tanks, and combat aircraft, and long-range weapons that can hit targets 300 kilometers away," Reznikov hinted at ATACMS missiles for HIMARS systems with a range of 300 kilometers.
Until now, they have not been supplied to Ukraine, as it is believed, in order not to expand the actions of Ukrainian artillery to the border areas of the Russian Federation. But the main thing that the president indicated in his welcoming speech was time. "It remains a Russian weapon. We need to speed up, and it must become our weapon as well - just like air defense and artillery, armored vehicles and tanks, which we are negotiating with you," Volodymyr Zelenskyy concluded.
The figurative message of the President was not a surprise for Western partners. Opening the meeting in Ramstein, the head of the Pentagon, Lloyd Austin, also outlined the urgency of the moment. "The moment is decisive. The Russian Federation is regrouping, recruiting, trying to re-equip. The moment is not one to slow down - it's time to dig deeper," the US Secretary of Defense said. "The Ukrainian people are watching us. The Kremlin is watching. And history itself."
It should be noted that no one expected a meeting for the sake of a meeting. A day earlier, the Pentagon announced a new $2.5 billion military aid package to Ukraine that includes offensive armored vehicles: 90 Stryker armored personnel carriers and 59 Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. Also promised are munitions for HIMARS missile systems and NASAMS air defense systems, HARM missiles, artillery shells, ammunition, 8 Avenger air defense systems and 350 HMMWV vehicles, i.е. SUVs "Humvee". Plus Claymore anti-personnel mines, night vision devices and spare parts.
In parallel, on the same day, a meeting of several EU defense ministers was held at the Estonian military base in Tapa. "Mini-Ramstein" ended with the announcement of British Defense Minister Ben Wallace on the transfer of 600 Brimstone missiles to Ukraine, Denmark promised 19 self-propelled artillery mounts CAESAR. Estonia will send military equipment worth 113 million euros. Latvia will send us Stinger systems, two M-17 helicopters, machine guns and drones.
But that's not all. A number of countries on the eve of "Rammstein" announced the transfer of anti-aircraft missile systems, and the latest, capable of closing the sky over major cities. The Netherlands announced the delivery of another battery of Patriot air defense systems to Ukraine (together with the battery promised to us by the United States, and another from Germany, this is already three, while there are only four of them in service with the Netherlands itself). And Italy will supply the SAMP/T air defense battery capable of shooting down ballistic missiles.
CONTROVERSIAL "LEOPARDS"
There was no most important thing - heavy tanks. In any case, they were not announced in sufficient numbers to meet at least the primary needs of Ukraine. First of all, we are talking about the best tanks that the Western military industry can provide - the German Leopard 2, the transfer of which could take place in the near future (the Bundeswehr warehouses have a lot of vehicles ready for transfer, there are those from the manufacturing company "Rheinmetall" ).
"It’s not just the Leopard that matters to us, it’s just the tanks that are important. But the Leopard is one of the best. Its entire production, technical and service base is located in Europe. This is a tank that is beneficial for the Armed Forces in all respects," says Vesti.ua military expert, reserve colonel Oleg Zhdanov.
On the eve of "Ramstein" a real campaign was launched to convince the political leadership of Germany of the need to transfer "Leopards" to Ukraine. The fact is that in the summer and autumn, Berlin cited dozens of arguments about why it is not worth supplying Ukraine with tanks: the FRG cannot risk transferring too many weapons; Ukrainian soldiers cannot use complex weapons without training (this did not prevent our defenders from mastering Gepard anti-aircraft guns); there was even a curious argument that the day before the start of the war, the Euro-5 certificates for almost all weapons of the Bundeswehr expired (and Berlin cannot afford to harm the environment of Eastern Europe).
Finally, the main condition was not named publicly, but it was reported by sources to several media outlets at once: Germany does not agree to supply Leopard 2 alone. "The Germans demand (delivery of) tanks and will not budge, considering other US proposals (other than agreeing to sendAbrams . – Auth.),” wrote CNN on Friday morning.
UNCONVINCED SCHOLZ
To convince Berlin, France announced on the eve of the likely supply of Leclerc main battle tanks. Britain - Challenger tanks with similar characteristics. The strongest pressure was from Poland, whose army is armed with German "Leopards". “Either we will get this consent (from Germany), or we will do what we need ourselves,” Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki replied about the tanks. “The main thing is that the Germans, Danes, Finns, French and other countries offer modern tanks as soon as possible.”
As a result, Poland, Finland, the Czech Republic, Slovakia and, probably, other countries agreed to provide Leopards to Ukraine, but unofficially. However, Germany remained adamant. The crucial phone call between Chancellor Olaf Scholz and US President Joseph Biden took place on Tuesday, December 17, according to Bild. “He (Scholz) made clear his position – “main battle tanks only together,” the publication clarified, adding that on Wednesday at a government meeting, Scholz announced the call and that until the United States decides to supply Abrams tanks to Ukraine, – Germany will not make a decision.
This predetermined the "tank" outcome of the summit in Ramstein. If before it began, the new head of the Ministry of Defense, 62-year-old Boris Pistorius, was playing for time, arguing for the reluctance to give a clear answer by the presence of pros and cons for each of the allied countries, then towards evening he spoke more clearly. "We cannot say today what the decision will be and when it will be made. I would like to act quickly if the decision is made. But if the decision is negative, nothing can be done."
The decision, apparently, was made precisely with a minus sign. “The Leopard itself is an excellent vehicle. However, what our partners promised us is the A4 level, and this is the equipment that corresponds to our T-72,” explains military expert Oleg Starikov. “Today, the Armed Forces of Ukraine need tanks of the A7 level. In addition, their number should be much more than 14 cars (Poland offered Ukraine such a number. - Auth.)."
WHAT TO PREPARE FOR
The scale of Ukraine's requests and an even larger response to them is preparation for a general battle. According to Starikov, a new winter campaign of strategic importance is beginning at the front. And it is precisely on the basis of the results of hostilities in the next few months that a decision will be made to restructure the entire security architecture of the European continent.
"Estimate: Ukraine today is given the same amount of weapons and equipment as we received in all 11 months of hostilities. I hope they will give us about 260 tanks - this is a division. Up to 200 armored personnel carriers and infantry fighting vehicles - up to 500. All this is preparation to the general battle, - the expert is convinced. - All this equipment is designed to work on hard ground, and given that the cold snap will begin in February and March, I think actions are scheduled for this time, and the parties are waiting for who will strike first."
The direction of attack is still unclear. As Vesti.ua already wrote, on the northern borders, both the State Border Service and Ukrainian intelligence do not record any significant movements and activity of the RF Armed Forces.
"The main direction is the Donbass, and this is the number one task for the leadership of the Russian Federation in the spring,” General of the Army, ex-head of the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine Mykola Malomuzh tells Vesti.ua. “Further there are ambitions related to the Zaporozhye and Kherson regions. From Belarus an offensive is unlikely - it is extremely difficult to organize operations in several directions at once."
However, the Russian Federation declares its readiness for a protracted war. And it provides for mobilization, this time no longer "partial" - although Moscow officially denies its beginning, it is inevitable, experts say.
Malomuzh clarifies: the full-scale invasion on February 24 of the Russian Federation began with a relatively modest army of 200-250 thousand people (the number of the Bundeswehr is 183 thousand people, the Polish Army reaches 164 thousand). But in the Russian Federation they realized the scale of the tasks and set about forming new divisions, corps, "and for what purposes - hardly even Putin himself understands," the general added.
The other day, the President of the Russian Federation instructed to increase the army to 1.5 million servicemen over the next three years, create a new army corps and two military districts near the borders with Finland. “This statement is not without reason. Each General Staff has an organizational and mobilization department that considers which units need reinforcements, what needs to be created, and so on,” says Starikov. “Today, if you fill all the existing units, you can get just up to 1 .5 million soldiers."
The question is in providing and financing such an army. Oleg Zhdanov believes that this is the main obstacle to creating a million-strong army in modern Europe. “Perhaps they will still find uniforms, machine guns for half a million soldiers. But the main question is different: how to pay? If Moscow starts mass printing money, inflation will break out,” the reserve colonel believes. According to Zhdanov, there are not as many problems with the equipment and technical equipment of the Russian military as it might seem. Russia began to massively conclude contracts for military cooperation with Belarus, North Korea and China. The latter, according to the expert, helps the RF Armed Forces with dry rations.
On the other hand, from lb.ua:
Russian Federation does not have the resources for a major offensive, - GUR
Moscow will step up its efforts in Donbas in the coming weeks.
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense claims that Russia does not have the resources for a large-scale offensive in Ukraine.
This was stated by the representative of the military intelligence Andriy Chernyak, the press service of the State Government informs.
According to him, information is spreading in the media about the alleged large-scale Russian offensive planned for February 24, but the enemy has been conducting it since the beginning of the great war. He noted that Moscow will intensify its efforts in Donbas in the coming weeks, and now the occupiers are trying to find weak points in the Ukrainian defense.
The scout emphasized that the Russian command does not have sufficient resources for large-scale offensive operations, and the main goal of the enemy remains to achieve at least some tactical success in the east.
We will remind that the representative of the Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense Andriy Yusov said that the Russian missile blitzkrieg failed, but the enemy will continue to strike.