The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) wargame panel consisted of Mark Cancian, Lt Gen David A. Deptula USAF (Ret.), Becca Wasser, and Professor William S. Murray.
The CSIS wargame scenario of a Taiwan invasion by China took place in the future year of 2026 and was played in 2022, giving four years from 2022.
Mark Cancian, Senior Adviser, International Security Program, and the host of this CSIS webinar held LIVE on January 9, 2023 said that the wargame was played 24 times by CSIS and came to two conclusions: China was unlikely to succeed in occupying Taiwan and the cost of war for all sides was high with estimates of 10,000+ total casualties. The U.S. lost 10-20 warships, two aircraft carriers, 200-400 warplanes, and around 3,000+ troops were killed in three weeks of fighting.
China loses 90% of its amphibious fleet, 52 major surface warships, and 160 warplanes were lost.
CNN summarizes the unclassified CSIS wargame in their January 10, 2022 video shown here.
This CSIS webinar video story has been edited for clarity and brevity. The entire CSIS wargame scenario report can be found here. “China achieves too little too late,” CSIS surmised regarding the wargame scenario on why China was unlikely to succeed in its objective of occupying Taiwan permanently. Four critical conditions were discovered by CSIS to achieve this outcome:
Taiwan must resist the invasion.
The U.S. must intervene immediately.
The U.S. must conduct military operations from Japan.
The U.S. must have an adequate supply of Anti-ship missiles.
One of the surprising findings was that 90% of allied aircraft was destroyed on the ground by Chinese missile attacks and that the current range of allied warplanes was a severe limitation.
The CSIS wargame also did factor in strikes against mainland China, mainly using airpower, and noted that the risk of a nuclear confrontation was a possibility. Certain aspects were “not thoroughly mentioned” or “off the table” by CSIS such as Chinese attacks on the continental United States and also nuclear weapons. This was mainly a conventional wargame fought in the air and at sea around Taiwan.
The key strategy recommendation is to make Taiwan a “porcupine,” too stiff and prickly with defensive weapons that an invasion would be deemed too costly.
Mark Cancian would make a wargame finding and then pass the finding to the panel members for discussion. Below are their observations.
Read the rest at the link