[REGNUM] IRAN AND THE CAUCASUS
The most thoughtful travelers begin their acquaintance with Iran from Armenia. In Yerevan, you can get a visa to Iran and proceed to Tehran by bus across the land border.
Three years ago, the starting point for my trip to Iran was the Shusha fortress in Nagorno-Karabakh, where, to my surprise, I found traces of the Persian presence. The fortress played a special role in the historical confrontation between Turkey (Turkic peoples) and Iran.
Being the capital of the Karabakh khanate, it was the stronghold of the protection of the whole of Azerbaijan from the constant expansion of Iran to the north. Despite the reputation of being impregnable, the fortress was captured not only by the Armenians during the First Karabakh War.
In the spring of 1797, Agha Mohammed Shah crossed the Araks with an army and, with the help of cunning, entered the fortress without a fight. However, already in the summer, the Shah was killed by people from his entourage, and the Iranian army left Shusha and Karabakh in parts.
And already during the Russian-Persian war, according to the Kurekchay Treaty, concluded on May 14, 1805 between Russia and Iran (“Oath Commitment”), Russian troops entered the Shushi fortress. Then there was the second Russian-Persian war of 1826-1828 and an attempt of revenge by Iran. One of the glorious pages of this war was the episode of the heroic defense of the small garrison of Shusha under the command of Colonel Reutt of the Iranian army of Abbas Mirza. The result of the confrontation between the two empires was the final consolidation of Russia in the Transcaucasus. The Araks River became the new border between the states.
This is just an episode from the history of the Russian presence in the South Caucasus and contact with Iranian interests. But there is also the prehistory of the Turkish-Persian wars, which is rooted in the Middle Ages, most of which was fought specifically for the Caucasus. And this is not only a confrontation for the regional dominance of the two powers, but also a dispute within the Islamic world (Sunnism and Shiism), as well as a clash between the settled and nomadic worlds.
Therefore, one should not be surprised at the special interest in the region from Iran. This was also manifested during the Second Karabakh War, where Iran was one of the deterrents for Azerbaijan. Against the backdrop of allied relations between Baku and Tel Aviv, Tehran is especially active today and declares in the strongest possible terms its strategic intentions to preserve the 40-kilometer section of the border with Armenia.
CORRIDOR "NORTH - SOUTH"
It is symbolic that even today Russian border guards control the Armenian-Iranian border in the Syunik region of Armenia. The bus "Yerevan - Tehran" costs only 20 dollars, and on the road, which is not the most comfortable, especially from the Armenian side, you will have to spend at least a day. From Yerevan to the border town of Meghri, the very south of Armenia, a 7-hour journey along a mountain serpentine, sometimes reminiscent of real off-road.
It is said that before the 2020 war there was a more comfortable transport logistics with Iran, but the Azerbaijani armed forces took possession of one of the sections of this route, and now they have to be content with what is left. But even if a modern road existed, the Syunik region itself makes a depressing impression.
It seems that official Yerevan has “forgotten” a strategically significant region that allows the country to withstand the consequences of a long-term blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan. Cross-border trade and cargo flow with Iran is very high. They give the local population the opportunity to somehow make ends meet. Despite the amazing natural beauty and historical sights, the Syunik region remains little known for mass tourism.
The surviving Soviet infrastructure complements the overall disappointing picture. By the number of Soviet cars and the indescribable way of life in the small and once industrial towns of the region, one gets the impression that the eighties have not gone anywhere.
In general, the North-South corridor, which is of geopolitical importance for Tehran and Moscow, in fact turned out to be forgotten by everyone and most unsettled.
It is significant that both countries have taken care of logistics not even against the backdrop of Armenia's defeat in the Karabakh war of 2020, but in the past six months - in the conditions of unprecedented pressure (and squeezing out) of Moscow from all over the post-Soviet space, when the laws of geopolitics prevailed over worldly logic and considerations of commercial gain.
Do not forget that step by step, meter by meter, the Azerbaijani Armed Forces have already captured the dominant heights of the Syunik region (I note that this is already the territory of Armenia itself, a country - a member of the CSTO). And the only remaining track was also under threat.
One does not need to be an expert in geopolitics to understand that the true goal of the armed confrontation between Armenia and Azerbaijan is not even Nagorno-Karabakh, but the so-called Zangezur corridor, which separates Turkey (and Nakhichevan) from Azerbaijan and the rest of the Turkic world that extends into Central Asia, the Volga region and a significant part of Siberia. These aspirations of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, relying, among other things, on historical heritage, are skillfully played by our Western opponents represented by the British.
"OVERCOMING THE ARMENIAN WEDGE"
For Turkey and Azerbaijan, the solution to the problem of Zangezur (or “overcoming the Armenian wedge,” as it is commonly called in Turkish political science) is primarily a geopolitical and ideological project within the framework of the policy of irredentism and pan-Turkism.
Its implementation will strengthen the internal political positions of Erdogan and Aliyev, and will mean the most obvious success in building a single space between Ankara and Baku (the concept of "one nation, two states"). And unlike the Great Turan project, this is the closest prospect.
In Turkey, presidential elections are scheduled for May, and the result is not yet clear.
The military adventure, to which Erdogan is prone, could be the reason for postponing the vote. If the Turkish leader decides to take this step, then it will be taken not in the direction of Syria (solution of the "Kurdish issue"), but in relation to Armenia. Such an opportunity, when Russia is distracted by the confrontation in Ukraine, may not present itself for a long time.
Current provocations, such as blocking the Lachin corridor, provoking a humanitarian crisis among the Armenian population of Nagorno-Karabakh, a media attack by Western media and NGOs against the Russian peacekeeping contingent, are all links in one chain.
Most likely, they will be followed by more sophisticated provocations and decisive steps. A large-scale armed operation in the mountains of Karabakh is possible with the onset of spring (April).
The situation is clearly not in favor of Armenia. But Iran can play its role here.
TEHRAN
The capital of Iran leaves a strong impression. The attitude towards the Russians is neutral and calm, there is not a shadow of surprise on the faces of the Iranians, as if the Russians are as frequent guests here as they are on the coasts of Antalya.
At the first visit, all patterns regarding Iran collapse. There is no dominance of the security forces or intimidation / oppression / lack of rights of citizens in Iran. There are even fewer police officers in Tehran, in my opinion, than in any other capital.
I also could not find a special religiosity of the inhabitants. There are no crowded mosques during prayer. There are no more ladies wrapped in black robes in Tehran than in Moscow. Young girls are mostly covered with a head covering, but more often it is perceived as part of the wardrobe. A sort of burdensome tribute to tradition.
Tehran is huge. At 90%, this is a gray space, a bit reminiscent of the buildings of the Soviet period. Everything is clean and well-maintained, but it is clear that the urban environment is purely functional. Everywhere there is a brisk trade, a continuous buy and sell.
There is energy and potential in Iran, but also some delay, as if the country is stuck in the eighties and is desperately trying to stay in them. It is clear that this is how the sanctions work.
If you fantasize a little and imagine that the Soviet elders in the 80s went crazy in a slightly different direction - they would have relied on Russian Rodnovery and refused to “merge” the imperial project, then today we would be like Iran, only ten times more and more powerful.
Instead, who has not yet realized that Russia is already significantly dependent on the power of the ayatollahs, not only in military-technical, but also in a number of other areas. But just yesterday it was customary for us to laugh at a somewhat strange and closed country.
Iran is a huge and industrialized state, of course, experiencing difficulties, but self-sufficient. The food, pharmaceutical and petrochemical industries, their own automotive industry, the defense and heavy industries, almost completely cover the domestic and military needs of the country. The Iranian government has five-year plans for socio-economic development, and the country shows a steady rate of industrial growth from year to year.
And it's not just the national economy. In Immanuel Wallerstein's terms, Iran is a world-system based on the traditions of the Persian empire, rich mineral resources, and a high quality workforce.
PROSPECTS FOR COOPERATION
Possessing significantly fewer resources and initial capabilities than Russia, Iran has shown the whole world that it is possible to live under the conditions of a total sanctions regime, maintain the stability of the political system, a decent level of development of society and a relatively high prosperity of citizens. This is an example for us as well.
And finally, the decisive factor is geopolitics. Having a common enemy.
It is precisely because of the influence of this irresistible factor that Christian Armenia is the main and natural ally of Shiite Iran in the Caucasus. And with the beginning of the NMD in Ukraine and open confrontation with the entire Western world, Russia has no more natural and reliable ally in the entire Eurasian space than Iran.
The immediate prospect of an escalation in Nagorno-Karabakh also makes Russia and Iran natural allies, this time against Turkey (and indirectly, the UK).
And if in the 19th century the Iranian shahs were used by the British to contain the Russian Empire, then with the coming to power of conservative forces in Tehran, the situation changed fundamentally. Today, Moscow and Tehran are closer than ever in the face of common threats.
And in conclusion. There is an opinion that the tectonic changes taking place today will lead to the sovereign return of the Modern. And this, in turn, means that the eighties are returning to the world. Desperate eighties.