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-Short Attention Span Theater-
FiveThirtyEight - Republicans Now Favored to Take Senate, Too
2022-11-07
[Epoch Times] Polling analytics website FiveThirtyEight predicted that the Republican Party is favored to take the Senate as it shifted its previous "toss-up" prediction for the upper chamber .

The publication as of Saturday night lists Republicans’ odds of winning the Senate at 55 in 100, as opposed the Democrats’ 45 in 100 chances. Several days before that, it said that the Senate is in a "dead heat."

RealClearPolitics, meanwhile, projected that the GOP has a higher likelihood of reclaiming the Senate following next Tuesday’s elections, possibly taking as many as 54 seats to the Democrats’ 46 seats. Now, Republicans are favored by the aggregator to win the seats in Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire.
Posted by:Bobby

#17  PA's voter verification computers should finish rebooting sometime in January.
Posted by: Shamp Snurt3261   2022-11-07 20:49  

#16  Watch for the DOJ/FBI run out some charges against Reps for vote tampering. They will go after the high profile GOP winners. May not allow them to take their seats in Congress.
Posted by: Xyz   2022-11-07 17:34  

#15  The pubs could give the dems a good dose of their "quorum denial" medicine between Nov 8 and the seating of the next congress. As the dems like prescribing it, they should love taking a dose themselves.
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-11-07 17:10  

#14  Even when/if the Dems lose, they'll still have 3 months to sow their 'revenge'.
Posted by: Mullah Richard   2022-11-07 16:50  

#13  They could steal it, sure, but JD Vance being up by double digits is a bellwether.
Posted by: Billy B    2022-11-07 16:40  

#12  PA will go dem. Count on it.
Same for Michigan, probably GA.
The fix is in.
Posted by: Vespasian Ebboting9735   2022-11-07 16:34  

#11   Isn't the usual "margin of error" +/- 3 points?

Good question, M. It depends on the size of the sample they’re polling plus other factors like how closely the sample matches the total population it’s supposed to represent. When the numbers are within the margin of error, we used to call it directional — pointing out that this meant the differences might not be real, as compared to significant at whatever confidence level (90%, 95%, 99%, etc.). I imagine professional pollsters use the same vocabulary.
Posted by: trailing wife   2022-11-07 16:18  

#10  Forget the Ukraine, we need to cut off the pork tap for EVERYONE.
Posted by: Silentbrick   2022-11-07 15:18  

#9  Isn't the usual "margin of error" +/- 3 points?

In 2020 the Democrat pollsters were so biased, they were off by 5 points or more in dozens of states — always tilted toward Biden, of course.

Trafalgar’s the only major pollster that played it straight. They were the most accurate by far.
Posted by: Billy B    2022-11-07 14:24  

#8  Trafalgar now shows GA breaking for Walker. Very close to the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff.

WI breaking for Johnson.
PA breaking for Oz.
OH’s in the bag.

Big big night tomorrow. Great Ukraine Grift ends in 30 hours.

Tick tock
Posted by: Billy B    2022-11-07 14:19  

#7  I'm deeply amused to go to RealClearPolitics site and see all the polls they are touting that show various candidates up by a fraction of a point. Isn't the usual "margin of error" +/- 3 points?
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-11-07 14:19  

#6  Trafalgar’s Ohio poll from last night now has JD Vance up by almost ELEVEN POINTS over Tim Ryan. Other pollsters — the left-lib pollsters whom no alert Republican will talk to — had Ryan ahead as recently as a week ago.

The only way that tomorrow cannot be a total wipeout is if we get more ballot box stuffing and other shenanigans from the Dems.
Posted by: Billy B    2022-11-07 14:12  

#5  Nate Silver Prepares For Biennial Tradition Of Screaming That His Wildly Erroneous Polls Were Somehow Right
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-11-07 12:58  

#4  It doesn't help that there seems to be no consequences for inaccuracy. Hacks purporting to be experts would have a less successful scam if there was no market for their wrong calls.
Posted by: Super Hose   2022-11-07 12:56  

#3  Trafalgar is far and away the most accurate (or least inaccurate) of the national polling organizations. They’re the only one that Republicans are willing to talk to (Rasmussen too but they’re unreliable).
Posted by: Billy B    2022-11-07 12:20  

#2  Five Thirty Eight is an operative masquerading as a pollster. Halloween is over so they are fudging their numbers back towards to maintain the viability of their scam in the future.
Posted by: Don Vito Spomong3236   2022-11-07 12:17  

#1  Pollsters have a tough job because they can't calculate or report on the level of election corruption.

Still I'm glad to see they are starting to take their thumbs off the scales if a bit late.
Posted by: ruprecht   2022-11-07 10:26  

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