Commentary by Russian military blogger Schneider-Krieg
[ColonelCassad] In one or two previous posts, it was mentioned that today the Chernihiv direction is protecting about 7,000 military personnel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. What creates a well-known temptation to repeat the offensive here at the end of February 2022 (when the special military operation - NVO) began.
Meanwhile, it is worth noting that in practice this may again not be such an easy walk as when entering the sample start of the campaign. Then this was sitting in the Chernihiv direction:
Chernigov (commander - Major General Nikolyuk) - headquarters of OK "Sever", 1st Tank Brigade, 12th Separate Tank Battalion, 169th training center (300th Training Tank Regiment, 354th Mechanized Training Regiment , 6th Artillery Training Regiment, etc.), 3rd Battalion, 27th National Guard Brigade, 8th Aviation Post, 22nd Rifle Battalion, and 119th Territorial Defense Brigade;
TOTAL: in fact, a tank division, eight tank battalions (250 tanks in the state), 10-12 artillery battalions (within 200 guns and MLRS), 10,000 people in the state. In fact. taking into account the shortage, apparently, about 7,000-8,000 people
The artillery numbers seem off. Typically, a Russian artillery regiment as part of a tank division will have three tube/self propelled artillery battalions (six gun batteries) or a total of 54 guns, and another 12 rocket artillery launchers, for a grand total of 66 firing units.
https://schneider-krieg.livejournal.com/51720.html
I note that the state is even more than stated. And, taking into account the State Border Guard Service, even more: at least 15,000 people. However, the same 1st Tank Brigade of the Armed Forces of Ukraine out of 3,500 in the state had only 2,000 people in service, for example. And with the rest of the Ukrainian units and formations, things were no better. So, on a circle - no more than 10,000 people. True, many of the best things that were in the Ukrainian army - the best tanks, the best command staff - were here.
Russia has concentrated a rather weighty fist here to attack Kyiv, mainly from the troops of the Central Military District (Central Military District), the reinforced ZVO, the Airborne Forces and the Aerospace Forces.
In total, only the army, at least 30 notorious BTGs - moreover, BTGs, better equipped than those of the "neighbors" from the Western Military District operating near Kharkov - parts of brigade, divisional, army and district subordination. In total, there are about 30,000 military personnel from the RF Ministry of Defense alone, reinforced by 15,000-20,000 Russian guardsmen.
In practice, a combined-arms army of 45,000-50,000 fighters with 300-350 tanks, 250-300 artillery pieces and a certain number of helicopters. By the way, in terms of the number of personnel, this is approximately twice as much as was then advancing on Kyiv along the right bank of the Dnieper through Chernobyl, from Belarus. And somewhat more than the "neighbors" - "Western", who attacked, moreover, from the Belgorod region in divergent directions.
This detachment of forces reached Chernigov on the very first day of the operation (or rather, in the first half day). However, having bumped into advanced units, he did not storm, but passed by, rushing to Kyiv. The local Ukrainian command took advantage of this - and began to ambush the lagging behind and pulling up columns. As a result, we had to return with the main forces and for two weeks fiddle with the encirclement and encirclement of Chernigov. In fact, the city from March 10 was completely surrounded and besieged until April 6.
The fighting was sluggish, the losses were small. Finally, on April 6, the siege was lifted. Russian troops lost at least 130 people killed, 400 wounded, 200-250 prisoners and at least 30 tanks. Ukrainian losses turned out to be noticeably more significant: about 300-350, in just KIAs.
The irony of fate is that today here, in the Chernihiv direction, Russia is confronted by almost the same forces as on February 24, 2022. The 1st Tank Brigade, it seems, had been withdrawn here in advance, where it replenished and rested. It is supported by the same 169th training center, as well as other units.
That is, in total, up to 10,000 people can lock themselves in the city, with the backbone of the most combat-ready troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Who are not willing to give up.
At the same time, only for the complete blockade of Chernihiv, without external actions, 20,000-30,000 people may be required, as at the beginning of the campaign. For a full-fledged assault, for a period of at least a month, you need at least 40,000-50,000 people - a minimum four to five times superiority. Not counting the forces that will have to be left to protect messages, cover the border, and also to create an external contour of the environment (in case of attempts to deblockade).
That is, in total, 80,000-100,000 people are needed for the Chernihiv military operation today. Twice as many as it entered at the beginning of the NWO. The 80,000-100,000 people that Russia has here today do not seem to exist.
These are thoughts out loud.
https://schneider-krieg.livejournal.com/56942.html - zinc