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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| The War In Ukraine Is Far From Over |
| 2022-10-01 |
| [19FortyFive] When Russia took Lysychansk on July 3, it was the third major Ukrainian city to fall in as many months, and by all appearances the Russians would continue their methodical march through the Donbas. Instead, Ukraine stiffened its defenses and limited Russia’s eastward advances to a slow crawl, and then earlier this month Zelensky unleashed twin offensives that have thrown Russia’s entire operation on the defensive — casting Putin fully into crisis mode. It is clear that the Russian leadership has, from the outset, underestimated the Ukrainian capacity to resist and overestimated the ability of the Russian army to prevail. It was seen in the initial strategy of splitting a relatively small force of less than 200,000 into four axes, making it easier for Ukraine to defeat the initial thrusts, observed in tactical blunders in the early phases, and in Russia’s failure to recognize or prepare for Ukraine’s offensive in the Kharkiv region. It appears, however, Zelensky now has Putin’s full attention. Russia’s strategy in the second phase of the war had been to focus on the Donbas and relegate the Kharkiv and Kherson fronts to secondary status. That may have made sense early, but over time Russia’s generals failed to make any changes to their plans — and more critically — failed to recognize Ukraine had been building capacity in the north. |
| Posted by:Abu Uluque |
| #10 “You are not going to get it back.” Who you talkin to, slim? You mean Biden, right? How exactly will Joey Bananas respond when Russia drops a nuke or two and waxes several Ukrainian cities? The US has grabbed a tar baby - in a shitty worthless little country of no strategic import, 8,000 miles away. Why risk nuclear war over this? Who’s driving this train anyway? |
| Posted by: Elmeang Hupomort2767 2022-10-01 21:22 |
| #9 This is Russia’s John Paul Jones moment. = They ain’t yet begun to fight. aka, Shit’s gonna get real now |
| Posted by: Croluck Prince of the Mongol Horde1242 2022-10-01 21:15 |
| #8 Maybe because most of it is theoretical on paper not in practical operational terms. The Russians seem to have been bit by the Transformation Bug™ as well -- "We don't need no steenking rifleman because we have drones and rockets and e-lec-tronic cyber stuff..." The problem is they started out with a much smaller budget and their endemic corruption wasted most of that. Pity really because the basic Russian soldier is as brave as you would need. |
| Posted by: magpie 2022-10-01 19:39 |
| #7 the truth is that Russia hasn’t brought to bear more than a tiny fraction of the firepower available to it. Maybe because most of it is theoretical on paper not in practical operational terms. Yes, they have nukes but the application of such basically releases the genie from the bottle. You are not going to get it back. And everyone and his brother will want their own nukes ASAP with or without the consent of others. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2022-10-01 18:02 |
| #6 This: “….can be counted on to escalate the war on his terms. He may also expand the target list beyond the current frontlines to western Ukraine, and significantly ramp up his destruction of Ukrainian power stations, rail junctions, more dams, bridges, and other infrastructure that would seriously hamper Ukraine’s ability to move its troops around.” Despite all the bullshit, the truth is that Russia hasn’t brought to bear more than a tiny fraction of the firepower available to it. Putin’s Russian critics are demanding he do an American-style Shock and Awe manoeuver: do what we did to Baghdad and take out Kiev’s infrastructure in short order. Maybe do as we did not do, and show a bit more regard for the civilian population … maybe distribute chlorine pills… Agree with the poster who noted that there are worse options for us than Putin. Even the liberal pro-western Russian leaders are all-in for escalation at this point. No Russian leader will ever give up Crimea. |
| Posted by: Pliny 2022-10-01 15:02 |
| #5 What's that saying about the devil you know? |
| Posted by: DooDahMan 2022-10-01 13:47 |
| #4 I am hoping that Putin's successor isn't crazier than he is |
| Posted by: magpie 2022-10-01 13:45 |
| #3 Dunno if this article's writer knows any more than any of the rest of them but it is beginning to look like all of Europe is in for a long, cold winter. I'm still hoping to stay warm, comfortable and well-fed here in sunny southern California even if I have to pay more for gasoline. Since I'm retired I don't have to drive that much anyway. Just hope Vlad doesn't get pushed too far. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2022-10-01 13:22 |
| #2 It only takes one party, The Aggressor, to start and maintain a conflict. |
| Posted by: magpie 2022-10-01 11:00 |
| #1 Another Forever War. The old world grudges and hates that have fueled wars for millenniums. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2022-10-01 08:12 |