by Alexander Kots
Special correspondent of KP.RU Alexander Kots tells what the "blitzkrieg" on the fronts of the Northern Military District is connected with and what it threatens
Why now
Sooner or later you have to pay the bills. Or, at least, report on the effectiveness of spending funds allocated for very specific tasks. The West, sometimes supplying equipment and weapons to its own detriment for the independent, pursues a very clear interest - Kyiv must move from defense to offensive and show tangible success. In the end, NATO partners did not send trains with modern combat systems to Ukraine so that the Armed Forces of Ukraine could sit in the trenches.
Zelensky is in a stalemate. On the one hand, a hard winter is coming, which has not been in the entire history of independence, we need to please the electorate with something.
On the other hand, harsh criticism from the camp of political opponents. Even the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny writes about the prospects for hostilities in collaboration with the Deputy General from the Poroshenko party. On the third - Western partners demanding results. On the fourth - the need to beg for more and more batches of weapons in order to make up for losses ...
And for this, again, it is necessary to prove the effectiveness of its use. There is also a summit of the Western allies at the American air base "Ramstein" in Germany arrived in time, where the issue of allocating new military assistance to Kyiv is being decided. There are astronomical amounts, the receipt of which must somehow be justified. For this, at least some kind of victory is needed,
The Kherson “offensive”
The offensive against Kherson, widely announced by Kyiv, did not work out right away. Ukraine threw about 15,000 bayonets into battle with the support of tanks and artillery, not paying attention to the fact that the local terrain puts the attackers in a very vulnerable position. Infantry and equipment in the open space became easy prey for Russian artillerymen, who mixed the enemy with earth and iron. Rare forest belts in the fields - so-so shelter. The enemy suffered colossal losses, only the trouble is that Kyiv does not take them into account.
Having an almost unlimited mobilization resource, the Ukrainian command can afford to try to solve operational problems, if not by the quality of the infantry, then by its quantity. However, Ukraine cannot boast of success in this direction. A couple of busy villages that are not of strategic importance can hardly be presented to their curators as a big win. There are more unpleasant questions to such results. And they are asked not only in the West, but also in the most independent.
For example, Ukrainian doctors doubt whether it was worth arranging an offensive at such a cost.
The head of the intensive care unit, where the wounded are treated, told The Wall Street Journal that the military gave him a week's notice, spurring hopes of imminent victories.
“But when they started bringing in such a large number of the wounded, then, frankly, I felt sorry for them and I began to wonder if it was worth it at such a price,” the doctor said. He stressed that he felt on the verge of a breakdown as he dealt with more soldiers than at any time since the early weeks of the NWO.
And his patients, in an interview with the Americans, complained about the lack of artillery (Russian artillery fires much more shells than Ukrainian) and pointed to the better technical equipment of the enemy. And they admitted that the losses of the Ukrainian side are five times higher than the Russian ones.
Kharkov "blitzkrieg"
The offensive in the Kharkiv region, which the Armed Forces launched this week, is fundamentally different from what we saw in the Kherson direction. First, it's a completely different area. I lived here for a month and a half and I remember very well these forests, beams, hills ... Using them, the enemy struck in several directions at once, pursuing the goal of cutting off our Izyum grouping from the mainland. Its supply depends on two arteries, on which the Armed Forces of Ukraine have concentrated their efforts.
The first blow fell on Balakleya. The Ukrainians tried to break into the city on the move, but were stopped by units of the National Guard. The policeman, in fact, the special forces heroically accepted the combined arms battle, preventing the enemy from breaking through. And he went around from the south, taking a couple of settlements. The attackers were unable to close the ring around Balakleya. The reserves that came to the rescue from our side broke through the corridor for the removal of the wounded and reinforced the garrison with units of the Ministry of Defense. At the same time, at the time of writing these lines, enemy units could not break through to the intersection of the Chuguev-Izyum highway in the area of the settlement of Veseloye. In case of its loss, the Izyum group risks losing supplies.
At the same time, the forces of the Kyiv regime tried to take control of the road connecting Balakliya with Kupyansk. On the section to Volokhov Yar, they succeeded, but to the north, in the Shevchenkovo region, they encountered Russian paratroopers, who did not allow them to move further - to Kupyansk. There is a risk that the Armed Forces of Ukraine will bypass Shevchenkove and move towards the unspoken capital of the liberated part of the Kharkiv region. A daring offensive, in which the Kiev command, according to tradition, does not consider losses, is also held back by Russian aviation, which operates virtually around the clock.
In just three days, the Armed Forces of Ukraine managed to advance up to 20 kilometers in some areas. However, in this way they stretched out into two "bags" to the south and north of Balakleya, which now has strategic importance. If it is not kept, then both "guts" will connect, aligning the front. If there is a corridor to this city from our side and the approach of reserves from these "bags" it is possible to cut "cauldrons" in case our counteroffensive is launched. The situation in this area remains very difficult, but not catastrophic.
What will the new tactics of Kyiv give
In contrast to the offensive in the Kherson region, after massive artillery preparation, the enemy in the Balakleya direction acted in small maneuverable groups without heavy equipment. Encountering resistance, he did not get involved in positional or urban battles, but simply bypassed the “fortified”, leaving it for the second echelon of the advancing with tanks and “armor”, which came from near Kharkov. Forward detachments are units trained according to NATO standards. The equipment that follows is supplied by Western partners.
Now a decision has been made in Kyiv to curtail the unpromising "offensive" in the Kherson direction and to transfer part of the forces through Dnepropetrovsk to the Kharkov direction. It is difficult to predict how the new confrontation will end here. Ukraine is now likely to abandon all resources to push through the defenses in the area of Kupyansk, Balakliya and Vesele. Let's hope that the Russian command has an answer to these claims of the enemy. What was it like in the Kherson direction.