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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Thinking out loud about the freezing of the military conflict in Ukraine
2022-08-13
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
[Sevastopol] What, for example, to do with Kyiv (the mother of Russian cities), or with other Russian cities, such as Nikolaev, Kharkov and Odessa?!

by Pavel Kukhmirov

Cannons rumble along the entire front line in Ukraine. The escalation of hostilities continues. But talk about a possible freeze of the conflict, nevertheless, sounds with the same intensity.

From the last: the proposal of one of the world leaders of the second or third echelon about a global truce for five years for everyone with everyone, despite the fact that it is completely clear what exactly was discussed.

Well, let's talk about that as well.

An American Civil War general, William Tecumseh Sherman, said, “War is cruelty itself and and cannot be refined. The more brutal the war, the sooner it will end." (c)

He always followed his logic. It is he who is the author of the tactics of artillery terror against civilian cities - what Donetsk is experiencing now was once first used by him in Atlanta.
Not originally, however. That has been practiced by militaries since the beginning of time.
But any war should not be too long in time. As soon as it enters a protracted stage, then, like a whirlpool, it begins to suck in very different forces that pursue very different interests and goals - these are competitors and strategic opponents.

At the moment, a situation is likely in Ukraine in which the military conflict will go into a protracted phase. At a minimum, interest in this is noticeable on the part of third forces - primarily the so-called. "allies" of Ukraine, but in fact enemies of Russia.

For these actors, the conflict makes sense only in the context of the destruction of economies, the weakening of armies, and the maximum damage to the potential of both opposing countries.

In the situation of creating a new landscape for the emerging world order, they will try to push Russia to the sidelines of world politics.

Unfortunately, too many people do not understand the obvious things.

The tightening of hostilities here is a double-edged sword. Looking to what extent to tighten.

America did just that in Vietnam. What did it lead her to? She hardly likes to remember the result. It is unlikely that we want to repeat it.

No war should go beyond the limits of humanism, and here we should not take an example from the enemy.

A military conflict in the very center of Europe is in any case associated with the risk of serious human losses on both sides. In any case, there will be significant negative consequences, including the spread of the conflict to other territories. First of all, on the territory of Russia itself. And this is not only about a sabotage war, the likelihood of which I personally have been talking about for half a year, but also about direct hostilities.

It will be an order of magnitude harder to work with this than in the same Syria: here we are not talking about militants in the mountains or in the desert - they cannot simply be razed to the ground.

What, for example, to do with Kyiv (the mother of Russian cities), or with other Russian cities, such as Nikolaev, Kharkov and Odessa?! How to increase fire impact there? This is with such a density of the non-military population ...

We are not our enemy. And we can't be.

And the term "collateral loss" will not mislead anyone.

It is clear that these are all killed innocent people who did not carry weapons and in no way offer resistance. Seeing what is happening in Donetsk, we cannot simply discount it.

Especially if later we ourselves are going to live with them, somehow improve relations and so on, then we have to think not only about building up hostilities. And no, it’s not about how to “have children” from the Azov people, which some especially stubborn and “constructive” guards agreed to not so long ago.

We are talking about people whom Russia, in fact, is going to release. They cannot be treated in the same way as the Ukrainian fascists are now treating the population of Donetsk. Otherwise, how are we better than them?!

The question is logical: is a non-military way out of the situation possible? Can it be found? Theoretically, it is still possible to somehow agree. In theory. But in practice...

I cannot be called a pacifist, but even I understand that relying only on the military component is, at the very least, futile. With this approach, the confrontation will intensify in any case.

The first stage of the enemy's confusion has already passed, the weapon has gone to him. And how much longer will it go?

It must be understood that with all that has been said, an attempt to freeze this military conflict is now doomed to failure. World players are too interested in making it "always smoldering".

Well, or at least smoldering for a long time. Even if a miracle happens and the Ukrainian authorities suddenly agree to such a freeze, this is unlikely to change anything.

Too much blood has already been shed. At both sides. And there is only one thing that can be done here: to combine military operations (which no one will simply stop in any case) with ongoing operations on the diplomatic front.

Nothing without this. Alas.

And it would also be nice to decide on the ideological front: what kind of super-idea is the current Russia bringing to Ukraine. Sorry for the faux pas, dear "competent citizens".

Pavel Kukhmirov is a Russian writer who resides in Rostov in Russia.
Posted by:badanov

#2  
Posted by: Omineling Forkbeard1962   2022-08-13 09:54  

#1  With climate change, it will happen soon enough.
Posted by: Skidmark   2022-08-13 09:36  

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