Commentary by Russian miitary blogger Rybar. Commentary by Russian military journalist as noted.
[ColonelCassad] In the afternoon, a series of explosions thundered at the Saki airfield near the resort town of Novofedorovka. Judging by the video, after the first fire at the airbase, tanks with aviation kerosene and ammunition began to explode. The main source of ignition and subsequent detonations was located approximately in the area of ​​​​one of the aircraft stands.
What is the damage from the explosion?
Officially, the authorities announced the death of one and the injury of several more people. There were no mass hospitalizations in civilian and military medical institutions, so the figures announced, in general, do not raise questions. According to some information, it was even possible to avoid the loss of personnel at the airfield.
The number of damaged and destroyed equipment is more difficult to estimate: a video appeared on the network with at least one burnt-out Su-24 bomber and bomb carts, which were mistaken for burnt wrecks of aircraft.
In total, at the time of the strike, there were a dozen Su-24M and Su-30SM, several helicopters and an Il-76 transport aircraft at the airfield. The latter, by the time of the explosion, was already on the runway at a distance from the epicenter and, with a high degree of probability, was not injured.
The urban infrastructure of Novofedorovka and civilian vehicles parked near the airfield also suffered from the shock wave and explosions.
Was it the arrival of a Ukrainian rocket?
Immediately after the explosion, there were suggestions that it was caused by a missile strike. On the one hand, the United States really spoke in favor of transferring long-range missiles to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which make it possible to reach objects in the Crimea.
However, the words of eyewitnesses speak against this version: none of the huge number of vacationers and residents of Novofedorovka observed the arrivals of rockets. Numerous videos from the scene of the incident also do not show anything resembling an incoming munition.
What could it be then?
There are no shots of the beginning of the fire and the first explosion in open sources, which makes it impossible to unambiguously determine the exact cause of the explosion. If we discard the missile strike, then two versions remain:
Sabotage: a copter with a small bomb attacked the parking lot. He could set fire to the tanker, which led to the detonation of fuel and ammunition. One of the videos shows two simultaneous explosions, in which they saw the operation of pre-laid charges. However, by that time there was already a fire at the airfield, and the synchronous detonation could be caused by secondary factors from the dispersion of fragments.
Negligence: an equally likely version is non-compliance with safety regulations when performing work. Similar cases have already occurred in Syria, when the carelessness of local military personnel led to the loss of aircraft. Therefore, this option should not be ruled out either.
What follows from this?
At the moment, the specific cause of the explosions is not the most important issue. Yes, with a high degree of probability it was not a missile strike, but who said that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would not try to attack airfields in Crimea? Given the expansion of the range of American supplies, it is precisely these facilities that may indeed become the target of missile strikes in the near future.
The key point is different: it's time to stop considering air bases and other similar facilities as a deep rear, absolutely protected from any enemy. It is necessary not only to take air defense seriously, but also to the issues of protecting a sensitive facility in accordance with the realities of wartime.
Otherwise, the enemy will have an increasing desire to take advantage of known gaps. It doesn't matter how exactly: strike with long-range missiles, send a DRG with a mortar, or drop a charge on planes standing in a row without any gabions.
And for the aircraft lost in this case, you will have to answer. And not only the situation at the front, but also specific individuals.
(c) "Rybar"
https://t.me/rybar/36954 - zinc
Following from Rozhin
From other information in the morning.
1. According to official figures, the total number of victims in the morning is one dead (civilian) and 13 injured (wounded and injured).
2. There is no objective data on this matter - there is only 1 video with 1 burned-out Su-24.
3. The "yellow level" of terrorist threat has been extended in Crimea until August 24 with the option of further extension.
4. Despite yesterday's explosions and warnings, some vacationers have already returned to the beaches in the Novofedorovka area.
5. Preliminary damage to civilian infrastructure amounted to 200 million rubles. The loss of military property is to be determined by the commission.
6. The Crimean authorities will help with the restoration of damaged property and will pay compensation to all victims.
From Military Informant via V Kontakte:
There are reports that the commander of the Black Sea Fleet, Igor Osipov, has been removed from his post.
Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov took his place.
From open data it is known that Vice Admiral Viktor Sokolov is 59 years old. He served from the commander of a mine-torpedo warhead on several ships, chief of staff and commander of a minesweeper division (Pacific Fleet) to deputy commander of the Northern Fleet (since 2013) and head of the Naval Military Scientific Center "Naval Academy named after Admiral of the Fleet of the Soviet Union N. G. Kuznetsov "(since 2020).
Viktor Sokolov led a military campaign in the Mediterranean Sea of ​​a detachment of ships of the Northern Fleet, led by the heavy aircraft-carrying cruiser Admiral Kuznetsov of the Soviet Union Fleet and the heavy nuclear-powered missile cruiser Pyotr Veliky.
He was awarded the orders "For Merit to the Fatherland" IV degree, Nakhimov, "For Military Merit" (2009), "For Maritime Merit", as well as medals.