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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia
Consumer economy and sanctions: what is the difference between the situations in the West and in Russia
2022-08-01
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Pavel Kukhmirov

[Sevastopol] Swiss Nestle SA, one of the world's largest food manufacturers, after assessing its Russian business in accordance with IFRS, concluded that changes in the operating and legal environment in Russia did not affect its control over Russian operations.

According to Interfax , in addition, Nestle has not made write-offs related to business in Russia, even despite a significant reduction in operations. However, it recognized write-offs of 71 million francs related to real estate and industrial equipment in Russia.

In the first half of 2022, Nestle decreased net profit by 12 percent, but increased revenue by 9 percent and improved its full-year forecast.

As we can see, not all market participants were hit by the sanctions to any significant extent. However, in general, the old economy of consumption has changed a lot amid the sanctions confrontation. And not only in Russia. There is an opinion that the sanctions only made it possible for the Russian economy and consumers to face this crisis a little earlier than the start of the global market.

And the world market is already catching up with this crisis. For example, this is the second catastrophic drop in Walmart shares in one day by 8.5 percent this year. Previously, something like this happened in May. And this event is significant, since these shares were volatile two times less than the so-called "broad market index". So their fall was not only a shock to the retail store industry, but also a blow to consumer confidence in general.

And this, against the backdrop of expected negative forecasts for GDP, can push the state of affairs in the US towards a recession. Shares of other players in the same segment (Target, Amazon and others) also sag.

Their decline occurs against the backdrop of negative forecasts for revenue and profit, as well as in the presence of overstocking in warehouses. Consumers are starting to cut spending on durable goods (primarily clothing and electronics) amid inflation.

As a result, retailers this year faced unpredictable fluctuations in consumer demand, which led to an increase in stocks of unsold goods. These are the first signs of a crisis in the consumer economy. Initially, they began to be observed during the pandemic, but now, during the energy crisis, they have intensified.

Similar processes in Russia began to be recorded last year - before the start of current events. This was expressed in the fact that almost all major players in the retail market launched programs of their own discounters, which demonstrated significant growth in the final of the year. In fact, they were recognized as the most dynamically developing in retail trade.

And the sanctions against this background, paradoxically, led to a positive effect here: as a result of the rush demand of the beginning of spring, the level of all commodity stocks decreased sharply among retailers. And this has happened across all industries.

The acquisition and importation of new goods for trade took place already in a situation of high instability, and this dictated a completely new, cautious policy in terms of prices and purchase volumes. At the same time, consumers themselves, according to all surveys, expressed high optimism - hostile sanctions did not frighten them. Taken together, these factors suggest that the consumer market in Russia is not heading for a recession. What, oddly enough, cannot be said about the markets of Europe and America. Well, let's see where it all ends up.

Pavel Kukhmirov is a Russian writer and a former Donbass militiaman
Posted by:badanov

#12  I was going by the picture. My broken wire had ABS, traction control, service 4WD (no 4WD until fixed, no cruise control either), and one other I'm don't recall the meaning of all lit up at once.
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-08-01 16:25  

#11  It's just the 'ck engine light.'

Disconnecting the pos battery cable usually resets it for a few days. Anyway, that's what I do before attending the socialist inspection station. Will be performing the same reset when I trade it in sometime in 2031.
Posted by: Besoeker   2022-08-01 16:13  

#10  When every idjit light comes on at once, it's an electronics issue, not a catastrophic failure of everything at once. Probably a circuit board behind the instrument panel, a royal pain to get at.
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-08-01 16:10  

#9  Eight years now, it comes, it goes. Gauges all read 'ok.' Oil and water fine. I just keep driving it.

Sometimes a passenger will issue a panic 'd comment. My response is usually:

"Arg! Do you think we should pull over?"

Posted by: Besoeker   2022-08-01 16:05  

#8  I jumped thru hoops to find a no longer made ABS modulator for my 2008 Jeep Liberty after the stealership told me mine was bad. Got a used one from LKQ (I highly recommend them) went to a mom n pop shop to have it swapped in. The guy called me later, said, it wasn't the ABS modulator, it was a broken wire. Cheap fix and I still have the hard to find part if I ever need it.
Posted by: M. Murcek   2022-08-01 15:58  

#7  /\ Besoeker, that was when you could actually repair an American automobile. Now it is a computer telling you to replace Plug n' Playâ„¢ modules made 'who knows where'... I have a phantom "loose gas cap" warning that I have given up on fixing, for example.
Posted by: magpie   2022-08-01 15:53  

#6  #3 they should be used to it by now.
Posted by: Chris   2022-08-01 11:26  

#5  /\ Yes, and quite wealthy as well. How else could they afford the restoration of so many vintage American classic automobiles ?
Posted by: Besoeker   2022-08-01 08:37  

#4  So Cuba is just like Puerto Rico just a little further to the west. Kleptocracies with a failing electrical systems.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2022-08-01 08:32  

#3  Havana temps are in the middle 90's, with 4 days of rain starting mid week but no drop in temps. Will Be Hot and Steamy.
Posted by: Phons Omert2327   2022-08-01 02:50  

#2  The heart bleeds, Phons Omert2327. Perhaps the next generation will give up Communism and let America bring them into the 21st century.
Posted by: trailing wife   2022-08-01 02:26  

#1  One of the casualties of sanctions against Russia is Cuba. The Cuban electrical grid is in need of repair and they are starting to have blackouts in Havana as the system is collapsing without Russian infrastructure support.
Posted by: Phons Omert2327   2022-08-01 01:27  

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