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Iraq
New guerrilla war in Iraq
2022-07-29
Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited.
by Artemy Sharapov

[REGNUM] Iraqi groups of radical Shia Muslims declared jihad on Turkey. Military bases, diplomatic missions and other Turkish facilities located on the territory of Iraq are being attacked. Shiite leaders accuse the Turkish military of killing Iraqi civilians and promise to transfer the war to Turkey in the near future. For Ankara, the opening of a “new partisan front” is a serious threat that could significantly change Turkish plans in the Middle East.

The actions of the Turkish army became the main subject of discussion in the Iraqi parliament in July 2022. After the Turkish army attacked the outskirts of the city of Zakho in the north of the country on July 21, a number of political figures demanded that the Iraqi authorities take measures against the Turkish military presence. Despite the fact that Ankara denies any involvement in the incident, Iraqi politicians are calling for an end to diplomatic and economic ties with Turkey.

However, while discussions and discussions are going on in the country's parliament, the radicals "on the streets" use popular discontent to their advantage. Demonstrators smash Turkish shops and picket diplomatic missions. In a number of Iraqi media, Turkish troops are referred to as the “Ottoman occupying army”, hinting at the imperial ambitions of the Turkish government, which wants to revive the Ottoman Empire. The protest gradually gains momentum and, as is often the case in Iraq, turns into a full-scale military confrontation.

A number of new armed groups appeared in Iraq, which declared jihad on Turkey and declared their readiness to transfer military operations to Turkish soil. The Saraya-aulia-l-Dam grouping launched several missile attacks on the bases of the Turkish army in northern Iraq. Another group, Saraya Ababil, launched several kamikaze drones at Turkish military bases, which led to losses in the ranks of the Turkish army.

It can be assumed that there are much more serious forces behind the groups that have declared jihad on Turkey. Earlier, Turkey's actions were condemned by the leaders of the Iraqi Shia Muslim militia "Hashd al-Shaabi" and supporters of the Mahdi Army organization. Both groups have solid experience in guerrilla operations, equipped with modern weapons, drones and missiles.

In all previous operations in the Middle East, Turkey has dealt with Kurdish guerrilla units that are capable of providing only patchy resistance. But the Hashd al-Shaabi organization, which has hundreds of thousands of fighters in its ranks, is a completely different enemy.

In the spring of 2022, the Turkish General Staff launched Operation Clenched Fist, aimed at eliminating the PKK bases in northern Iraq. The operation was partially successful as the Kurds suffered heavy casualties. However, now that not only the Kurds but also the Iraqi Shiite Arabs are opposed to the Turks, the situation is changing dramatically. Now Turkish military installations are becoming a target for shelling, the intensity of which will only increase.

Launch sites for missiles and drones are located deep in Iraqi territory, so Turkish troops cannot reach them. The use of the Air Force on the territory of Iraq can lead to an increase in anti-Turkish sentiment in the country and, accordingly, new rocket attacks.

The current situation leads the Turkish military and political leadership into a situation of "execution cannot be pardoned." Staying in Iraq is becoming extremely dangerous due to the sharply increasing losses in the ranks of the army. So, you need to either increase your military contingent, or leave. The first option is guaranteed to lead to an even greater increase in losses and increase tension in the region, and the second, in turn, will jeopardize Turkey's authority in the region.

Such an alignment will sooner or later force the Turkish leadership to turn to Iran for mediation, which can influence the Iraqi Shiite Muslims. However, for now, there is a feeling that the Iraqis are serious about a long-term guerrilla confrontation, in which they simply have no equal (since 2003, an almost uninterrupted war has been going on in the country).

Further events will show whether the Turkish army is the very “gendarme of the Middle East” that it wants to appear to be, or whether there are still other forces in the region that can act as an obstacle to the growth of Turkish influence.

Posted by:badanov

#1  New guerrilla war in Iraq

...How can you tell?

Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski   2022-07-29 04:47  

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