Commentary by Russian writer Irina Alksnis
by Irina Alksnis
[Ria] Kyiv launched a counter-offensive - so far informational, but it has already made a lot of noise. Interviews with the Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov were published immediately in the American The Wall Street Journal and the British The Times.
In the first publication, Reznikov, recognizing the heavy losses and depletion of the resources of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, emphasized the need for new arms supplies from the West. But in the second article, he made a statement that received the widest response.
According to the minister, the Ukrainian army is forming "million-strong combat forces equipped with Western weapons" to fulfill Volodymyr Zelensky 's order to "liberate" the southern coastal regions, "vital to the country's economy." He clarified where the figure he named of a million military personnel came from: the number of the Armed Forces of Ukraine reaches 700 thousand people, plus the National Guard, the police and the border service, which can also be involved in hostilities.
Almost simultaneously with Reznikov's interview, Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine Irina Vereshchuk appealed to residents of the southern, Russian -controlled territories with an appeal to urgently leave them because of the counteroffensive planned by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. True, she did not specify the timing of this event, but she created the impression that this could happen in the very near future.
In Russia, it is customary to make fun of the Ukrainian elites - and this is largely true. In many ways, but not in everything. What cannot be taken away from Kiev is skillful work in the information field. In its own way, it is logical that a successful showman and comedian turned out to be at the head of Ukraine, that is, a person who professionally works with the audience and knows how to manipulate it.
And there is another point in connection with which the Kyiv authorities are often underestimated. Usually they are perceived as absolute puppets of the West (primarily Washington and London ), completely devoid of their own will and meekly fulfilling the instructions coming from there.
This is a mistake - and a big one.
In fact, the Ukrainian elites are not completely, but to a large extent subjective and always guided primarily by personal interests. At the same time, being frankly narrow-minded and uneducated as statesmen (which, in fact, led the Ukrainian state to a sad result), they compensate for this with cunning and extreme persistence in defending their own.
That is why the West was forced in 2014 to build a complex system of management of the newly acquired vassal in the Ukrainian direction, since he managed to torpedo any initiatives of the overlord, if they contradicted his interests. This mainly concerned the cutting of budgets, theft of assets and valuable resources.
So, the main current interest of the Ukrainian elites is the continuation of the war. And it is no coincidence that right now Kyiv has made a powerful information volley, and at once in all directions: both in the Western audience, and in the intra-Ukrainian, and in the Russian, and in the people living in the liberated territories.
The reason is the steady deterioration of Ukrainian affairs.
Disorder and vacillation have begun in the Western establishment, and they are becoming more and more obvious and visible even to the naked eye. If on February 24 all political forces there merged in an anti-Russian rage, now Russophobic enthusiasm is waning day by day.
Western Europe , which beat its chest and swore that it was about to give up Russian gas and oil, is now hysterical at the prospect that this can indeed happen - and is trying to carefully disown the most radical anti-Russian steps. The opinion of Eastern Europe , of course, does not interest anyone.
The British, led by the frantic Boris, were Ukraine's mainstay in the Old World. But Johnson has "gone", and there are disturbing rumors that the British, who are being swept up by the socio-economic storm, may now prefer a less "hawkish" figure in the premier's chair, who will deal primarily with domestic problems.
Overseas, their difficulties, which threaten a grandiose failure of the Democratic Party in the November midterm elections. And the course of the Ukrainian campaign does not help in any way in solving problems and, on the contrary, threatens to become another weight by the fall that will drown Biden's party comrades.
At the same time, the entire Western media mainstream is already declaring in unison that Ukraine is not only losing at the front, but in principle has no chance of winning.
Of course, there are forces in the West - and very influential ones - who still rely on the continuation of hostilities and a military victory for Ukraine, but the anti-Russian consensus of the West is crumbling before our eyes. Moreover, one does not have to be a visionary to predict that the situation will worsen in this sense every week. This means that Kyiv will receive less and less support - for him, this is just a disaster.
That is why Reznikov's statement that Ukraine is assembling a millionth military fist, and even equipped with Western weapons, sounded right now. It should contain the processes of disintegration of the anti-Russian coalition and push the doubting governments to a new wave of assistance to Kyiv, both military and financial.
It is no coincidence that the emphasis on the fact that the goal of the coming counter-offensive is the southern coastal territories, which are key to the Ukrainian economy. Over the months of the NMD, the West has managed to feel how heavy a suitcase without a handle is Ukraine, deprived of the most important regions from an economic point of view. After all, what was good about the post-Maidan period - thanks to its geographical location and Soviet legacy, Ukraine not only supported itself, but was also a Klondike for plunder by the Western establishment. Now, in order for Kyiv to continue to serve as a weapon against Russia, it has to give money. And the fact that it is formally on credit does not console anyone - it is clear that these debts are irrecoverable.
So the West, or rather, the Western elites that have begun to waver, are the main target of the current information attack. In front of them, Ukraine hung a carrot: here we have a million-strong army almost at the ready, which will liberate Kherson and Mariupol , just give us more money and weapons.
However, being the main one, the West is not Kyiv's only target. In parallel, he tries to kill a few more birds with one stone.
Bravura statements about the coming counteroffensive work to support public mobilization within Ukraine. This is becoming more and more relevant as information about the plight at the front and the huge losses of the Armed Forces of Ukraine leaks out, despite heavy censorship and the operation of the Ukrainian brainwashing machine at full capacity.
In addition, this is an attempt to demoralize Russian society and - especially - people in the liberated territories, to sow anxiety and uncertainty in them. There are regular terrorist attacks against officials working in the new administrations. Plus, rumors are being actively launched that Russia will leave there, and Kyiv will return and massacre everyone who somehow cooperated and came into contact with the Russians.
So the speeches of Reznikov and Vereshchuk in this sense are a competent informational sabotage, which should not be underestimated. Such actions of Kyiv must be given a powerful and qualified rebuff.
As for the feasibility of Kyiv's plans for a real "reconquest" of the southern regions, then it is worth advising him not to say "gop."