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| Boilers have already begun to boil: What has changed after the liberation of Mariupol and the surrender of Azovstal |
| 2022-05-25 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. by Oleksandr Kots [KP] It would seem, what does Azovstal and Mariupol have to do with it? And this is not only a military victory, but also a psychological one. Giving confidence to our fighters. Do you feel how the front buzzed after the final liberation of Mariupol and the surrender of its entire garrison? From Avdievka to Izyum, from Liman to Severodonetsk. A huge military machine set in motion, which, it seemed, over the past month “got bogged down in positional battles”, “rested against the enemy’s defenses,” gnawing out new territories literally by a meter. During the special operation, the command of the allied forces of Russia with the republics of Donbass, and we, the reporters, had enough opportunities to study the tactics of the Ukrainian troops. We must give them their due - they know how to defend themselves. Small maneuverable groups with Western anti-tank weapons, American counter-battery systems that allow us to open positions of our artillery in a minimum time, saturation with drones and powerful fortified areas that allow us to wait out the bombing ... While the confrontation is at the level of artillery duels (that's why 95 percent of all losses are from fragments) and partisan attacks with Javelins from forest plantations, the Ukrainians hold on to positions with their teeth. But as soon as it comes to a direct collision, they prefer to roll back to the pre-prepared second and third lines of defense. They do not like close combat and "shooters," especially since 80 percent of Ukrainian soldiers are mobilized reservists and fighters of the defense, who took up arms for the first time. So they write ultimatums to Zelensky, refusing to "perform combat missions in inhuman working conditions." WHO TO PREPARE AFTER MARIUPOL What does Azovstal and Mariupol have to do with it? And this is not only a military victory, but also a psychological one. Giving confidence to our fighters. And undermined the faith in their authorities among the armed forces of Ukraine (AFU). Battalions are released from Mariupol, which will go to fight off the rest of the lands of the people's republics. How will the battle for Donbass unfold after the surrender of the Mariupol garrison? Let's try to predict. It is hardly worth waiting for swift marches with movement along the entire front. But since 2014, the APU has been known to be allergic to boilers, which 8 years ago Ukrainian troops fell into with fatal persistence. Indeed, in addition to the Ilovaisky and Debaltsevo boilers, there were smaller encirclements. But at that time, the most militant passionate Ukrainian units were also ground in them. I would venture to suggest that now the fate of the Donbass will be decided in such fire bags. SEVERODONETSK-LYSICHANSK The most obvious today is the Severodonetsk boiler. It's actually framed. The city (by the way, formally - the capital of the part of the Lugansk region, which remained under the control of Kyiv) is already blocked from the North, East and South. And his communication with neighboring Lisichansk was actually interrupted. One bridge was blown up, the second - under the fire control of the allied artillery. According to the third, it is possible, perhaps, to escape. And this will not be the worst option for the 2,000-strong Ukrainian garrison in Severodonetsk. "Polymorsos" (political and moral state) is clearly not in combat now, and skirmishes are already underway in the city itself. The very option that is so disliked in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. Therefore, it can be assumed that the Severodonetsk garrison will at some point roll back to Lisichansk, where it will join up with a larger group. But even here there will be no salvation, because Lisichansk is also close to the encirclement. Yes, this city is on a hill and is very convenient for defense. But the roads to Slavyansk and Bakhmut (former Artemovsk) still controlled by Ukraine are being shot through by Russian artillery. And that's about to be cut. Without the supply of ammunition, the Lisichansk garrison is doomed. And an important point - with the capture of Lisichansk and Severodonetsk, the territory of the LPR will be completely liberated. AVDIEVSKOE NEST To the north of Donetsk, Avdievka is gradually surrounded, where the Ukrainian garrison of up to 6,000 people settled. It is from this city that Donetsk itself, Gorlovka, and Yasinovataya have been shelled in recent years. And they're still shooting... It is difficult to storm Avdievka directly - for 8 years powerful fortifications have been erected here. Most likely, the allied troops will bypass it on the flanks, block and compress the ring. The liberation of Avdievka will finally allow the residents of Donetsk and its suburbs to breathe easy, forget about the shelling and begin to establish a peaceful life. And the final liberation of Donbass will be decided, apparently, in the battles for Slavyansk and Kramatorsk, where about 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers have settled. However, Kyiv can manage to increase this figure by bringing reservists here. The offensive to these cities is now going on in several directions at once. From the north - from Izyum and from the east - from Krasny Liman. From the southeast, after clearing the newly taken Svetlodarsk, the released forces can join them. From the south, the Allied troops will begin to prop up after the solution of the issue with Avdiivka. Don't expect a quick win here. In 2014, Ukrainian troops were never able to break through the defenses of Slovyansk, where Strelkov's militia were. But everything was decided by the complete encirclement of the city. As a result, Strelkov then broke through with his garrison to Donetsk. But now the Ukrainians will simply have nowhere to go. Only captured. DO NOT STORM DIRECTLY, BUT BREAK IN PARTS The tactics of "small boilers" makes it possible to optimally use the forces of the republics of Donbass and a group of Russian troops. Minimize the losses that can be incurred during the storming of cities, block and destroy the main nodes of the Ukrainian defense and its supply routes. The most combat-ready formations of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the Donbass are fragmented into several fragments that are not connected to each other. As you know, it is difficult to break a broom through the knee. And on one twig - quite. |
| Posted by:badanov |