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Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia

StrategyPage: Small Wonders

2022-03-14

Strategy Page gets seriously analytical, at length. The opening paragraph:

The Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was not unexpected but the poor performance of the Russian military was a surprise, even to the Ukrainians. One of those surprises was the Russian inability to gain air superiority. The Russian air force has dominated the skies over Syria for years. But in Ukraine Russian helicopters (transports and gunships) as well as large transports were more often seen, and shot down, than Russian jet fighters and ground attack aircraft. The Russian helicopters still operate inside Ukraine, but have to do so carefully because the Ukrainians have received over 10,000 modern portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft weapons, which were distributed to hundreds of small teams of twenty or so soldiers and local volunteers who know the local terrain and secondary roads better than the Russians. These teams are directed to roads used by Russian convoys or areas where combat vehicles are concentrated and carry out surprise attacks. Local civilians report Russian activity and this is passed on to the attack teams. Ukraine also receives recent commercial satellite photos of Russian activity. Ukraine also has over twenty armed (with laser guided missiles) TB2 UAVs purchased from Turkey before the invasion with more delivered, via Poland, in early March.

Posted by:Angaiper Ulavins1210

#5 Excellent adds at #2 and #3.

Posted by: Besoeker 2022-03-14 21:31

#4 Ukrainian counter attacks on Russian infrastructure?
UAV attacks on stranded Russian convoys?

Posted by: Grunter 2022-03-14 20:48

#3 Excellent list B. To that I'd like to add Kazakhstan giving the cold shoulder to Putin's request for help after he saved their bacon during the recent uprising.

Posted by: Rex Mundi 2022-03-14 18:17

#2 Re#3 - I suspect they'd do better defending their country than invading someone else's.

Posted by: Mercutio 2022-03-14 11:18

#1 Russia is in trouble with their 'Special Military Operation.' Some armchair thoughts or bullets (mostly obvious):

1. Unexpectedly strong Ukraine resistance and resolve.
2. High casualty (KIA/WIA) figures/estimates.
3. Poor soldier performance.
4. Poor performance and tactics at the senior leader level. No 'Plan B.' Miserably failing combined arms tactics.
5. Requests for Syrian military assistance.
6. Requests for Chinese support.
7. Coms, fuel and logistics issues (poor prior planning).
8. Possible ammo, fuel, med supply shortages.
9. Global negative media impacts.
10. Negative opinions, protests, and impacts back home in Russian civilian sector.
11. Severe economic impacts. RU stock market closure. Ruble devaluation.
12. War crimes. Cluster munitions. Video targeting of civilians, hospitals, indicates change of tactics, desperation.
14. No status of Ukrainian POW's, no news of prisoner exchanges.
15. Putin anger, frustration, and failure to apparently grasp the enormity of the situation.
16. Polish sanctuary and arms (STINGER-Manpad, Intel reporting) re-supply issue.
17. Heavy equipment (armored vehicle, fuel tankers, and aircraft) losses.
18. EU and NATO taking new, updated look at the Russian threat and economic relationships.
19. Long-held notion of Soviet/Russian military invincibility severely impacted.
20. Potential for extended Ukrainian guerilla campaign likely.

Posted by: Besoeker 2022-03-14 09:46

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