[NationalJournal] President Biden’s weak approval ratings, compounded by ugly Democratic divisions, have increased the likelihood of a significant Republican wave election this year. Biden’s job approval rating at the one-year mark is just under 41 percent, according to the RealClearPolitics average, the second-lowest of any president in the modern era. Republicans now hold a 3-point advantage on the generic ballot per RCP, a position that’s similar to the party’s commanding positions in the midterm elections of 2010 (when they netted five Senate seats) and 2014 (when Republicans regained the Senate majority, winning nine Senate seats).
Indeed, the race-by-race analysis hasn’t kept up with the deteriorating macro-political reality for Democrats. At the beginning of the cycle, Senate Democrats looked like they would benefit from a favorable Senate map, not defending a single state that Trump carried in 2020. But with Biden’s downturn, the swing states that the president carried narrowly (Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin) now look like tough territory for the party in power. Meanwhile, Republican-leaning states like Florida, North Carolina, and Ohio, which once looked competitive, now look like longer shots—even with a solid Democratic recruit in Florida, the presence of a Trump-endorsed candidate in North Carolina, and an underwhelming Republican field in Ohio. |