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| Caucasus/Russia/Central Asia |
| State of Emergency Regime introduced in Kazakhstan |
| 2022-01-05 |
| Direct Translation via Google Translate. Edited. Commentary by Russian military journalist Boris Rozhin See also here and here. [ColonelCassad] Tokayev has officially introduced a state of emergency in Alma-Ata and the Mangistau region. The emergency mode starts from 01-30 January 5 and will last until 0:00 on January 19. This regime significantly expands the capabilities of the police and internal troops to suppress protests. The text of the law can be found here. The powers of the security forces are more than broad. Currently, truncheons, stun grenades, rubber bullets and special riot control equipment are used to suppress protests. We keep in mind that in the 2000s, the authorities did not hesitate to shoot protesters in Zhanaozen. More. Several short videos are at the link Protests in Kazakhstan. Night: By nightfall, the situation began to aggravate, in some cities there are clashes between protesters and the police (in Astana they burned a police car), which uses non-lethal special equipment. The opposition calls not to weaken the pressure on the authorities, as it understands perfectly well that the protests will end, and a sweep will begin like in Belarus. The authorities are trying to maintain control over the situation in large cities and reduce the degree of protest by promising economic concessions to the protesters. Age restricted video: Even more Protests in Kazakhstan. Evening Short videos and maps featured at the link (All in Russian) By the evening of January 4, protests in Kazakhstan spread to the capital of the country, where a significant number of local residents (apparently several thousand) came out to rallies and marches around the city with not only economic but also political demands. The protests are being managed by the Democratic Party of Kazakhstan, run by a former minister in one of Nazarbayev’s governments. The main oppositionist of Kazakhstan at home is accused of contract murder and embezzlement of funds, lives in France, but calls on the military and police "to go over to the side of the people." As the example of Kyrgyzstan shows, a criminal candidate, this is practically the norm. It is also worth noting that among the organizers of the protest is an organization with the wonderful name "Halyk Maidany". In fact, the government of Kazakhstan set fire to dry protest brushwood by the increase in gas prices, but now many will use the resulting conflagration. Including criminals from France, but not only them. In fact, the trigger for the protests was the rise in gas prices from 60 to 120 tenge, that is, the economic policy of the government of Kazakhstan. The fact that various forces will use this is already a consequence. Hasty attempts to roll gas prices back (up to promises to make gas at 50 tenge) are of course insufficient, since the demands gradually cease from economic to political, in fact, calling into question the system that Nazarbayev has been building since the early 90s. Let's see how Tokayev & Co. manages to steer out of this ravine. In my opinion, the authorities will choose a combined strategy: on the one hand, they will make some economic concessions in order to bring down the degree of protest and tear off the gaseous cloud of protesters from the rally core, but attempts to use force from the protesters will prepare a tough rebuff. So far, the authorities are restricting access to the Internet in the capital and a number of rebellious cities, and additional police forces are being pulled in in case of active clashes with protesters when they try to block the center of the country's capital and seize the administrative quarter and administrations in large cities. The very same instability in Kazakhstan hardly came as some kind of surprise, it has been noted more than once that the very logic of the Cold War will generate active instability along the entire perimeter of the Russian Federation. Belarus, Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan. Now Kazakhstan's turn has come. The hour is not far off for the magic kingdom of Berdymukhamedov. The Russian Federation and China, of course, are not too interested in uncontrollable processes in Kazakhstan, considering what is happening, including through the prism of preserving their investments in Kazakhstan and preventing the Americans from using the situation in Kazakhstan in the struggle for control over Central Asia. But how, instead of the understandable Nazarbayev and Tokayev, some "democrat" ala Pashinyan comes, and then shovel the consequences, especially after fleeing from Afghanistan, the Americans are looking for a country in Central Asia where a permanent air force base could be deployed. Here we immediately recall Kyrgyzstan, from which, after the color revolution of 2005, the American base was squeezed out for a long time. Plus, the problem of Northern Kazakhstan and the Russian population living there may become aggravated. So for the Russian Federation this is certainly not just an "internal problem of a neighboring state." In certain scenarios, it can also become a problem for the Russian Federation. |
| Posted by:badanov |
| #2 Tokayev ...Is that the guy whose official pictures all look like Dean Martin circa The Silencers? Mike |
| Posted by: Mike Kozlowski 2022-01-05 06:05 |
| #1 Kazakhstan is a significant oil producer; unrest could hurt that, and more than offset any OPEC production increases. |
| Posted by: Glenmore 2022-01-05 01:15 |