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China-Japan-Koreas
Americans Must Answer Four Questions Before Confronting China
2021-11-22
BLUF:
[National Interest] The final question is whether the Americans know what the full cost of sliding to a great power war with a nuclear rival entails, especially over a territory barely miles from Chinese coastal missile batteries. Most Americans are neither aware of how civilization-destroying even a limited nuclear war can be. To give an example, the total casualties of the War on Terror for twenty years, including the 9/11 attacks, were around 12,000 dead and several thousand injured. The number of people dead if a carrier group is sunk in the first hour of a full-contact fight will be more. And that’s not even half a day of fighting, in one specific domain. Not to mention, air force and missile attacks, or God forbid a nuclear showdown. Are Americans willing to go to war for Taiwan, and risk such numbers of casualties?

Ultimately, however, the bigger challenge will not be about facing China in a nuclear showdown. As the brief India-China border clash in the Himalayas (with spiked clubs and hatchets) showed, most great powers now know the risk of a nuclear showdown and are, therefore, gearing up for premodern conflicts below the threshold of war. Same Roman legionnaire tactics are now being seen in the Polish-Belarus-Ukrainian border to defend Europe from weaponized mass migration, a problem that is not just limited to Europe. A far more existential question is whether the Western force structure is ready for such a grey-zone conflict. The answer, given the current American trends, might not be satisfactory.
Posted by:Besoeker

#9  Round from Texas to Mexico's shores
To... Korea, the Yucatan's yours.
Jap Caribbean cars.
Robots rolling cigars
From Taiwan straight through Florida's doors.
Posted by: Whoque Elmelet9465   2021-11-22 19:50  

#8  Don't forget the fifth question. Are you willing to accept an MAD exchange that results mostly in the devastation of Big Blue urban areas?

Hmm....I'm still thinking. Give me some time.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2021-11-22 17:02  

#7   Imagine another power on the other side of the planet getting super pissed that America wants to dominate the Gulf of Mexico.

Yeah. Its called China. Before that, Soviet Union. Before that, Spain. Before that, Great Britain. Before that, France. Before that, Great Britain. Dutch get honorary mention.
Posted by: swksvolFF   2021-11-22 14:54  

#6   I smell a touch of Herb

A hint of tarragon, perhaps. Or a sprinkle of anus anise...
Posted by: SteveS   2021-11-22 14:22  

#5  I smell a touch of Herb
Posted by: Frank G   2021-11-22 14:06  

#4  China's already killed a lot more than a carrier task force's group of sailors, with the collusion of our own bureaucracy.

And Mr. Shomp: Cuba sits there, 90 miles off the cost of Florida, and has been a festering sore of tyrrany for the last fifty-eight years, with no action taken by the US since the end of the Cuban Missile Crisis.

Care to try another analogy?
Posted by: Thing From Snowy Mountain   2021-11-22 13:46  

#3  Imagine another power on the other side of the planet getting super pissed that America wants to dominate the Gulf of Mexico.
Posted by: Shomp Ebbeans2472   2021-11-22 10:54  

#2  Bigger question: Why are American corporations, government, academia and consumers financing the rise of China?

Because no one is stopping them ?
Posted by: Besoeker   2021-11-22 07:41  

#1  Bigger question: Why are American corporations, government, academia and consumers financing the rise of China?
Posted by: Jomosh Unolusing3028   2021-11-22 07:34  

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