by Avigdor Eskin
[Regnum] The Kremlin's LHP strategy is a success. The abbreviation does not mean what you think, but “the line of the main enemy”. This is how the American direction was designated in some Soviet institutions in pre-perestroika times.The meeting in Geneva with Biden was a confirmation of the effectiveness of Moscow's long-term policy towards the West. All observers talk in detail about the return of ambassadors, about the resumption of negotiations on the reduction of strategic weapons, about the possible expansion of cooperation in the antiterrorist sphere, and even about Antarctica. But the main news was the recognition again of Russia as the second world power, with which they speak the language of equals. Not overtaking everyone in the amount of produced China, but economically moderate Russia.
The manifestation of a new atmosphere in Geneva can be viewed as an awareness by the Americans of the need to reduce the degree of tension with the Kremlin due to the growing competitiveness of China. This is a motivating factor, no doubt. But the general heading remains the recognition of Russia as the second most important world empire.
Recognition does not mean agreeing with the Kremlin's policies or renouncing the role of the first and foremost in the world. But the transition to the language of discussing mutual interests in the tone of the detente of the seventies - this is what President Putin has been striving for over the past ten years. All this can be framed with reservations and objections, but Biden's public rejection of the vocabulary of threats and ultimatums heralds new opportunities in US-Russian relations.
All this does not mean an immediate lifting of sanctions or a solution to the problem of Crimea and Donbass. Mutual tactics will be distinguished by gradualness and "bargaining" on each item. One should not expect from Washington a sincere and complete recognition of Russia as an equal. But instead of dismissive arrogance, Americans are beginning to return to exchange-style conversations with Soviet Moscow in the old days.
We note right away that the US 45th President Donald Trump has repeatedly demonstrated (and even after Biden came to the White House) a sincere desire for constructive and friendly relations with Vladimir Putin's Russia. But, by his own recent admission, the state apparatus with the Democratic Party prevented him from promoting the policies he believed in. Now we see no prerequisites for a friendly atmosphere. This is a recognition of mutual interests and a business discussion of them.
There is a fashionable theory among political scientists that it is the hawkish republicans who can successfully negotiate with Moscow or Beijing. They say they do not have an itchy Republican hawkish opposition. So it was during the years of Nixon's rapprochement with Brezhnev in ancient times.
According to that logic, it was during the rule of Donald Trump that positive changes were to be expected. But in the United States, a coalition of the democratic opposition with the special services has emerged against the 45th president, using the Russian factor to discredit him. In the role of itching and tormenting hawks, the democrats, usually inclined to detente, together with the state system, acted. This completely destroyed all Trump's good undertakings with regard to Russia.
But Joe Biden is not put in a wheel. The shadow of his son's dark deeds in the Burisma company and the recordings of Biden's conversations with Petro Poroshenko at that time could lead to dire consequences for both, but without any “Russian trace”.
Biden will love the role of Richard Nixon in the early seventies. It is logical to assume that signs of good intentions may follow from Moscow in dealing with internal opposition and in the degree of "bite" of the controlled cyberspace aces.
It is dangerous to engage in long-term forecasts now. We can definitely sum up: Putin's tough and active policy turned out to be justified. Consistent with Russian interests.
Avigdor Eskin is Russian-Israeli conservative journalist based in Moscow
