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Home Front: Politix

Trump campaign staff claims to have statistical evidence of fraud in Wisconsin

2020-11-10

[Wash Examiner] As the president's path to 270 Electoral College votes narrows virtually every day, some members of his campaign say statistical evidence of fraud in Wisconsin could give him a victory.

One member of President Trump's reelection team who spoke with the Washington Examiner on the condition of anonymity said ballot data in Milwaukee indicates illegal activity by Democrats in the city. The distribution of those ballots in favor of presumptive President-elect Joe Biden, the individual alleged, violates Benford's Law ‐ an analytical framework used by statisticians when observing a set of randomized data points.

Benford's Law is often used by election analysts, both in the United States and abroad, to detect voter fraud or other sorts of improprieties in elections. U.S. government agencies, like the U.S. Department of Agriculture, often apply Benford's Law when auditing information from farmers who rely on federal subsidies.

"The farmer was asked how much of each crop he harvested in the past year. I put together all of the quantities produced of all possible crops," wrote one government analyst in 2006. "I find that more quantities produced begin with a five than would be suggested by Benford's Law while fewer begin with a four, six, or seven. I can reject that the data comes from Benford's distribution."

The Washington Examiner has not analyzed Wisconsin's voter data sets to see if they violate Benford's Law, nor is any purported violation proof that criminal activity took place in the state. Some statisticians question its applicability, particularly in an election where ballot counters are organizing returns in a manner that differs from precinct to precinct.

Still, an adviser to the Trump campaign believes pro-Trump internet sleuths are onto something when they say there is an artificial distribution of votes in favor of Biden.

"We think this is good news," the individual said. "If there's fire where there's smoke, it'll come out during the recount."

Roughly 20,500 votes currently separate Biden and Trump in Wisconsin. The two Trump campaign officials who spoke with the Washington Examiner say they believe there are enough irregularities to potentially flip the state back into the president's column and dramatically change the race's outcome.

Graphical Representation of 170,000 fraudulent WI ballots at 4AM
Read the twitter thread. Key graph:
This is the Wisconsin vote counting history log. Again, on the Y axis we have the ratio of D to R ballots in reporting batch, and on the X axis we have reporting time.

The following information is provided via an anonymous data scientist and another anonymous individual who wrote a script to scrape the national ballot counting time series data of off the @nytimes website.

This is based on their proprietary "Edison" data source which would ordinarily be impossible to access for people outside the press.

Posted by:Thusoting Big Foot1716

#3 /\ Statistical evidence is often introduced into the courts by expert witnesses if the expert is qualified by the court and the data analysis meets certain requirements.

Posted by: JohnQC 2020-11-10 11:05

#2 Statistical evidence is not legal evidence.

Posted by: Glenmore 2020-11-10 10:28

#1 But, math being hard and all (so hard some can't figure out whether to call it math or maths) we simply can't subject the sorts that watch The View or Oprah to such hideosity...

Posted by: M. Murcek 2020-11-10 01:53

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