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Home Front: Politix
Frank Luntz: If The Polls Are Wrong Again This Time, My Profession Is Finished
2020-10-25
h/t HotAir
No profession is ever really "finished" after a catastrophic failure. Ask someone who opposed the Iraq war. They’ll talk your ear off about how cheerleaders for the invasion ended up failing upward in the foreign policy establishment or landing softly as "wise men" commentators in American media.
Please reconsider the truck Frank.
Polling won’t disappear either if it misjudges Trump’s chances again this time. Everyone will pay *some* attention to it in 2024. But the industry, and satellite industries like election modelers, will never fully regain their credibility. It’s one thing to underestimate Trump by three points in 2016, a year when you had no inkling of how strong his support might be among working-class white voters. It’s another thing to recalibrate for that, conclude that he’s trailing this time by eight or nine points instead of three — and then miss again.

Better get the outcome right this time. All the well-meaning introspective "how we blew it" postmorterms in the world will be farts in the wind in terms or rebuilding public confidence.

Posted by:g(r)omgoru

#19  Given the confirmation bias of the left-leaning press in terms of what to put in the headlines, and what to ignore, and leftism/socialist leanings of the "social sciences" departments and types who do these polls, I think it's inherent that they will be wrong, and wrong in the same direction. This will continue until the ideology is beaten (fiscally) out of them and the academic departments that train them.
Posted by: Theager Borgia1057   2020-10-25 21:35  

#18  The way I understand it the internal polling is generally pretty accurate because they know what questions they need and will pay to get the right level of trustworthiness.

The other polls are just propaganda intended to help fund raising and keep hopes up and depress the other guys from showing up.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2020-10-25 18:54  

#17  
Posted by: 3dc   2020-10-25 17:48  

#16  As for the rest, almost all have become influence operations pretending to be scientific.

Perhaps something for the FEC or even DOJ to look into.

If they were honest and reliable, that is.
Posted by: charger   2020-10-25 17:10  

#15  chickenentrails

"Magic 8 Ball sez...what you want it to say"
Pay me.
Posted by: Frank G   2020-10-25 16:47  

#14  If I were hiring a poll, I'd want two products:
One showing my guy ahead that I can use for publicity. Obviously, it may have to be cooked, but not overdone, please We don't want to make people laugh at its wrongness. "Margin of Error" can hide a number of flaws.

The second would be an accurate reading of what is actually happening. This one would be for internal use only and done under a Non-Disclosure Agreement.
Posted by: SteveS   2020-10-25 16:45  

#13  There will always be jobs for the best of those trained to read chicken entrails for private clients. As for the rest, almost all have become influence operations pretending to be scientific.
Posted by: trailing wife   2020-10-25 16:16  

#12  After Trump won in '16, there was a brief moment of soul-searching on the part of pollsters, media, even the entertainment industry.

It lasted about a month.

Same thing will happen this time if Trump wins.

Their livelihood depends on being mendacious scumbags, and they will only cease to be mendacious scumbags when it is no longer remunerative or they are dead.
Posted by: charger   2020-10-25 14:15  

#11  They're Just looking for how much they need to cheat by...
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2020-10-25 14:02  

#10  Learn to code
Posted by: Rex Mundi   2020-10-25 13:47  

#9  When the two pollsters that nailed 2016 are saying Trump is ahead in several swing states and very well could win, and the party owned pollsters are claiming a Biden landslide, I tend to believe with those that were right before.

That being said, I do believe we are seeing the final death spasms of the party run media. They won't be able to recover from this and will degenerate even more to small, paranoid little things that barely anyone watches.
Posted by: DarthVader   2020-10-25 11:34  

#8  Frank, you were done years ago.
Posted by: 49 Pan   2020-10-25 10:25  

#7  "Madame President" - Time Rag Magazine
Posted by: Clem   2020-10-25 08:56  

#6  I doubt that the market for propaganda will ever die.
Posted by: AlanC   2020-10-25 08:53  

#5  If not id... does this count as a Freudian slip?
Posted by: Mercutio   2020-10-25 08:46  

#4  Only id the "profession" is poll results tailored to support the client's needs.
Posted by: Mercutio   2020-10-25 08:45  

#3  ^Only if thee party is in power - subsidies become necessary once the cleverer advertisers abandon the sinking ship.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-10-25 08:32  

#2  As long as there are Party operated media, you have no worries about creating fake news for them to pedal. Since the boards and CEOs are more interested in expending corporate capital to preen among their peer group rather than make money for the stockholders, they'll keep the Party media in business. So, don't worry sugar plum, your future is fine. Just like those who sell horoscopes.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2020-10-25 08:30  

#1  But the industry, and satellite industries like election modelers, will never fully regain their credibility.

Actually that happened four years ago, but keep at it, Frankie.
Posted by: Raj   2020-10-25 07:47  

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