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Home Front: Politix

Statistics and the US elections

2020-10-13

By Rantburg’s own JFM.

There is an old statistician joke: "If you can't count the horses then count the hooves and divide by four". This joke is about a classical method used by statisticians: when you can't measure something directly you use indicators: values correlated with what you are trying to measure. For instance sales of horsehoes, saddles, bridles, and al if you need to know the number of horses. With carefully selected indicators you can have a good idea of the number you are trying to estimate and a still better idea of its evolution.

So the MSM are saying Biden will win in a landslide. Then why is the attendance at his rallies so low? Why are there so few "Biden" signs in front of houses? Why is he been nuked by Trump in both? Attendance at rallyes and signs in front of houses are not votes but they are correlated with.

Now I will play devil's statistician: perhaps it is that Republicans tend to live in houses with a lawn you can put a "Trump" sign on it and Democrats live in appartments so direct comparisons can be misleading. So let's compare Biden to Clinton in 2016 and again Biden is blown out of the water. In fact he is doing worse than Mondale in 1984. Now people not enthousiastic about Biden would not bother about putting a Biden sign and, because of TDS, still vote for him in higher numbers than they did for Clinton. That would hold if there were, say 10% less pro-Biden than pro-Clinton signs but from what people living in America tell me there were 10 Clinton signs for 1 Biden sign. I really don't believe Biden can do better than Clinton did. Not with such abysmal differences in attendance at rallyes and signs in front of houses. I really believe he will do far worse

Without ballot stuffing of mexican proportions I don't see how Biden could win.

Posted by:JFM

#10 "Eli Lilly antibody trial paused...."

Awwww, Big Pharma suffers a set-back. My heart bleeds. (Yes, I don't care who finds a vaccine/whatever against COVID-19 first, even Sputnik-V, as long as there is a level playing field, but the pharmaceutical-industrial complex has had its way for far too long.)

Posted by: Clem 2020-10-13 19:04

#9 Also, is it worth meeting with the anti-semite party when you are unlikely to to make inroads?

Likely, unlikely, it's major part of his job.

Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-10-13 18:42

#8 Another way to look at Bibi not meeting Biden is that with the Abraham accords Israel no longer depends so strongly on the US as they did before. And you can be Bibi knows far more about any other nations likely to join in the peace deal in time than the press knows at this point.

Also, is it worth meeting with the anti-semite party when you are unlikely to to make inroads?

Posted by: rjschwarz 2020-10-13 17:23

#7 #6 Actually, I posted this, because (IMO) if Bibi's national security advisors believed that Biden has a chance - it would be Bibi's duty as an Israeli PM to suck up to Biden.

But that was before I've seen the Eli Lilly news item.

Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-10-13 16:46

#6 Fascinating paragraphs from g(r)omgoru’s link:

But nobody seemed to care in America, either. What is even more telling is that no one seemed to care in the Biden campaign. Leaks, for instance, did not emerge from close advisors to the former vice president bashing Netanyahu for “brazenly taking sides,” or for “disrespecting” a man who may be president.

During the 2016 election, less than two months before the US voted, both Trump and Democratic opponent Hillary Clinton’s teams were eager to set up a meeting with Netanyahu. Those meetings were held in New York on the sidelines of the annual UN General Assembly meeting.

This time, however, there was no public indication by the Biden team before Netanyahu flew to Washington that they were interested in a meeting or public phone call during the prime minister’s two-night stay, just as the Biden camp did not protest afterward that no such meeting or phone call had taken place.

Democrats: your Big Tent Joo-hating party. Their motto: “Whatever your reason to hate Jews, we’ve got you covered.”

Wouldn’t it be fun if Bibi has his own version of Mr. Biden’s Menachem Begin conversation?

Menachem Begin To Joe Biden: I Am Not A Jew With Trembling Knees

Posted by: trailing wife 2020-10-13 16:40

#5 On the other hand
Eli Lilly antibody trial paused due to potential safety concern

Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-10-13 16:31

#4 I too have my indicators.

The meaning of no Bibi-Biden election year contact

Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-10-13 16:06

#3 Bien dit, JFM.

Here are some indicators that are more reliable than shitty, slanted polls.

New voter registrations: in the states that capture registrations by party preference, Repubs have out-registered Dems in 2020 by at least 2:1.

All or nearly all of these newly-registered voters are likely to vote Nov. 3. If the polls don't update their samples to refelect this changed weighting, they will underestimate Trump's vote total by at least 4-5 points in each state.

Actual election results in 2018 and 2020: Recent election data - how real people really did vote - has been demonstrated to be a far better predictor of the next election outcome than this primitively method of calling up a few strangers and asking them to tell you what they might or might not do in the future. Republicans have outperformed the polls' predictions in multiple elections recently. These real elections including dozens of special elections in Washington State indicate that Trump will win.

Search for "Sean Trende" or "Helmut Norpoth" for details. Here's a Newsweek article about Norpoth's recent prediction, using primary election data, that Trymp will win.

indicate that Teumo

Posted by: Clirt and Company9854 2020-10-13 16:01

#2 ...perhaps it is that Republicans tend to live in houses with a lawn you can put a "Trump" sign on it and Democrats live in appartments

The late comedian Mitch Hedberg said, "I'm not a household name, most of my fans live in apartments..."

Posted by: M. Murcek 2020-10-13 15:50

#1 Parfait!

Statistics without numbers, sure, but sound conclusions!

Posted by: Bobby 2020-10-13 15:01

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