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| Election Prediction Model That Has Been Correct 25 of the Last 27 Elections Says Trump Will Win in a Landslide |
| 2020-09-09 |
| [Red State] Stony Brook Political Scientist Helmut Norpoth has created a Presidential Election prediction model which has correctly predicted the winning candidate in 25 of the last 27 Presidential elections, going back to 1912, the first year presidential primaries in the states were used in each party’s nominating process. The only two years the model was wrong were 1960, with Kennedy beating Nixon — although there are strong historical accounts that election fraud in Texas and Illinois delivered both states to Kennedy when, in fact, the voters of Texas and Illinois selected Nixon. If those two states had been declared for Nixon, they would have given him exactly 270 electoral votes, the number needed to win the election. The other year the model was incorrect was 2000, when Bush prevailed over Gore after a court challenge which declared Bush to be the winner in Florida by just a handful of votes, with Florida’s electoral votes needed by each candidate to declare victory. Prof. Norpoth’s model predicts a 91% chance that Pres. Trump wins re-election, and gives him 362 electoral votes in the process. In playing around with an interactive electoral map, the way I get Pres. Trump to 362 electoral votes would put only the following states in Biden’s column: Washington, California, Illinois, New York, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Massachusetts, Vermont, Rhode Island, and one vote from Maine. That would mean that Trump would win the following states that are right now considered to be Democrat or toss-ups: Oregon, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Michigan, Nebraska (all), Ohio, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Maine (3), Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida. That would be a wipeout of a historical nature given all the predictions about the election up to this point. BUT that is how "wave" elections tend to happen. Undecideds do not generally break in relatively even numbers. Undecideds generally shift in large numbers to one candidate. States that are small leans become solid. States that are true tossups become comfortable, and states that were leaning towards the other candidate suddenly become battlegrounds and can be lost. Only truly safe states remain safe — but the margin of victory in those states declines. That is what happened in 1980 to Jimmy Carter. He faced a challenge from within his own party in the primaries which split the Democrats. Carter was unpopular with a portion of the party, and even the portion that backed him was unenthusiastic. |
| Posted by:Besoeker |
| #8 All comes down to black vote / turnout. Dems cannot win if blacks do not vote 90% or more for Biden. Not possible under any scenario. Ain't gonna happen. |
| Posted by: Whasing Gretle5841 2020-09-09 20:00 |
| #7 I think Trump easily wins a relatively honest election with a relatively well-informed voting population that doesn't allow aesthetics to determine its decisions (Orange Man Crude!) Is that what we'll have? Stay tuned. |
| Posted by: charger 2020-09-09 19:40 |
| #6 If you do the probabilities & combinations of the above you see that Trump's odds are not 50/50; more like 80/20. Not to get complacent - GOTV etc got it - but this explains the Democrats' recent hysteria. They are truly fucked, and they know it. |
| Posted by: Snaviling Darling of the Poles3766 2020-09-09 19:32 |
| #5 Basically, if Trump flips Michigan, he will win the election. If he flips Wisconsin, he is likely to win. If he flips both? Guarantee he wins regardless of PA. If he flips MI WI *and* MN? He will win even without PA *and* Florida. |
| Posted by: Theager Borgia1057 2020-09-09 18:13 |
| #4 (Most of this is shamelessly paraphrased from a private blog post that I do not have permission to publicly credit because the author does not want his/her name due to possible job reprisals, but said its OK to put the arguments out there. Electoral votes in bold). Note that Biden starts with 177 per the article. I seriously doubt these states will go Trump - too far gone to the left in the cities to be overcome by the rural and far suburban areas: Oregon 7 (Portland and old hippies), Colorado 9 (too many California transplants and votes concentrated in the Boulder-Denver corridor), New Mexico 5 (like Colorado too many Cali transplants and local hippes), Virginia 13 (beltway liberals and Richmond engulf the conservative rest of the state in the popular vote) = +34 Biden New Hampshire 4, Maine 4 split 2 state, 1 each CD, 1 going D for sure, 3 up for grabs. Depends on NY City Refugees, and their impact on the polls to offset the state's native GOP and conservative rural populations. I consider these 2 to be questionable, but roll the dice. Split the difference? +5 Trump NH/1ME +3 Biden (Split ME) This is where the big swing may hit, and where it was the most hidden the last time: Minnesota 10, Wisconsin 10. All the BLM/Antifa riots may have pushed these into Trump. Especially in the rural/suburban areas to north and outside Minneapolis, and wisconsin outside of Madison. The Wisconsin Dem Gov may have single handedly pushed more people into the GOP side in Wisconsin than anyone else in the nation. Minnesota not far behind. Backlash may be the theme in these 2 states, which is why Hiden-Barass is paying a lot of attention there now, and all of a sudden press coverage of the riots has stopped (funny how that happened). Split +10 Trump WI +10 Biden MN Democrat mismanagement may have finally sunk in on the carpetbaggers in North Carolina 15 too, as the continued lockdown is now seen to be unnecessarily strict, and the economy suffering needlessly. Plus Trump won here in 16 Trump +15 Trump's economic "America First" policies might have won over Michigan 16, and the industrialized parts of Ohio to provide margin there. Trump +16 Rural, Retirees, and Mormons, Vs Unions and California transplants = Arizona (more retirees)11, Nevada (not enough Mormons in the N to offeset union and vote fraud) 5 Trump +11, Biden +5 These I can see, easily going Trump, I didnt know they were in play: Nebraska (all 5), Ohio 18 (despite Cleveland) Trump +23 So this is where the fight comes down to: Pennsylvania, Florida. Florida the Hispanic (Cuban) vote is swinging heavily into Trump according to latest info. And the GOP has not screwed up since it got elected in spite of Dem/Press efforts to portray otherwise. PA? 20 It comes down to whether the western part of the state can offset Philly and the liberal enclaves there. Trumps "America First" might be helping especially around Pittsburgh. This is truly a tossup Basically if Biden gets CO, NV & NM and the northeast plus VA, Trump holds onto the solid south + Arizona, Ohio and Florida, then all Trump needs to do is get just ONE of the following: MN, WI, MI, PA. Thats right, Biden can win 3 of those 4, say, PA, MN, MI, but loses WI and Trump has the electoral votes to win. If trump wins PA + MI, he can even win the election without Florida. The electoral math stacks up well. |
| Posted by: Theager Borgia1057 2020-09-09 18:08 |
| #3 They are just beginning to cheat and they have been preparing for years. |
| Posted by: magpie 2020-09-09 14:05 |
| #2 And then the lefties will curl up into a ball and weep? Don't hold yer breath. |
| Posted by: Bobby 2020-09-09 12:25 |
| #1 Just as Biden was challenged by Sanders and you don't see a whole lot of enthusiasm for Biden either. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2020-09-09 11:50 |