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China-Japan-Koreas
Why Doesn't China Deploy Fighter Jets to the Spratly Islands?
2020-08-22
[TheDiplomat] On August 4, China’s Global Times reported that SU-30MKK Flanker fighter jets belonging to the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) had conducted a 10-hour patrol over the South China Sea, breaking the air force’s previous record of 8.5 hours.

Although the report suggested only one SU-30 had made the 10-hour flight, an online video showed five to six fighter jets had been involved in the mission.

The fighter aircraft departed from an air base in southern China and were refueled twice by Ilyushin-78 aerial refueling tankers. The Global Times described the operation as "technically and mentally" challenging for the pilots, noting that they had "consumed rations to keep their energy levels up."

The mission came at a time of heightened tensions between the United States and China over the maritime disputes in the South China Sea. Over the past few months, both countries have increased the tempo of naval exercises and air patrols in the South China Sea. On July 13, U.S. Secretary of State Mike Pompeo declared China’s jurisdictional claims in the South China Sea to be unlawful and accused Beijing of bullying the Southeast Asian claimants.

While the video was designed to demonstrate China’s growing power projection capabilities, one expert noted that it may have inadvertently revealed the PLAAF’s weaknesses. The Flankers were either lightly armed or unarmed, and the use of two Il-78s would have consumed two-thirds of the air force’s heavy tanker fleet. It suggests that in a conflict over the South China Sea the PLAAF would not be able to send large numbers of aircraft into the battle space and sustain them.
3 refueling tankers is your entire fleet? Yah, long range fighter power projection is definitely not something China can do then.
While the Global Times would only say that the fighter jets had been dispatched to the "most remote islands and reefs" in the South China Sea, the video clearly showed the aircraft flying over Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands.

Subi Reef is one of China’s seven artificial islands in the Spratlys and hosts a 3,300 meter-long runway. Fiery Cross Reef and Mischief Reef also support long runways.

The mission begs an important question: Why didn’t the SU-30s land and refuel on Subi Reef? Surely one of the main purposes of the artificial islands is to enable China to project air power into the South China Sea to assert its territorial and jurisdictional claims, including the possibility of establishing an Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) over the Spratlys?
Details at link. As Stephen Green stated on this article, "China either doesn't want to or can't do this. And I they really want to."
Posted by:DarthVader

#16  Musk the supreme crony capitalist. It's been said that Tesla is not an auto company but a tech one.
Posted by: Clem   2020-08-22 20:05  

#15  Isn't it interesting that the US has been so quiet about Musk's mini-sat network?
Posted by: Frank G   2020-08-22 19:17  

#14  The Chinese would rely on satellite for real time targeting. Don't expect the sats to last very long.
Posted by: Sluns Gurly-Brown7484   2020-08-22 19:12  

#13  I'm seriously curious about how true or vaporware the carrier buster missile everyone's talking up?

Don't overestimate the enemy but don't underestimate your own.
O and the Indians and others will be glad to play spoilers. Chicoms have no allies in the region
Posted by: Percy Flotle3938   2020-08-22 18:47  

#12  Just think: If it goes to a shooting war, you're gonna have Greenpeace filing injunctions to make sure you don't bomb those delicate reefs.
Bets?
Posted by: ed in texas   2020-08-22 16:25  

#11  Built on a reef? That seems easy to crater to the point of destruction. Quickly and permanently. If push comes to shove these are nothing but easy targets.
Posted by: Marilyn Tojo7566   2020-08-22 15:52  

#10  One thing the Chinese government worries about is if they put too much fuel in their aircraft it is likely to disappear .
Posted by: Thaith Elmeresing6163   2020-08-22 14:54  

#9  All the Chinese priority assets are crowded up around Tiawan.
Wonder why.
Posted by: ed in texas   2020-08-22 11:15  

#8  If its like everything else the chinese make, I'd bet there are sinkholes under the runway.
Posted by: swksvolFF   2020-08-22 11:14  

#7  3 refueling tankers is your entire fleet?

Won't be that way for much longer. COMAC makes the C919 (B-737 equiv), the C929 (B-787) is near completion and the C939 (B-777) is on the drawing board.
Posted by: Sluns Gurly-Brown7484   2020-08-22 09:20  

#6  All China has at the moment is their biological weaponization program. I suspect you've recently read something about it.
Posted by: Besoeker   2020-08-22 09:20  

#5  In an actual war, those tankers would be priority targets, most likely.

You bet your ass they are. Along with AWACs ships. And guess what we have that is perfect for that?

F-22
Posted by: DarthVader   2020-08-22 09:15  

#4  In an actual war, those tankers would be priority targets, most likely.
Posted by: M. Murcek   2020-08-22 08:43  

#3   3 refueling tankers is your entire fleet? Yah, long range fighter power projection is definitely not something China can do then.

...For me, this is an utterly fascinating point. The PLAAF has a grand total of ten, count 'em, TEN tankers, period full stop. They have three of the big IL-76 tankers, and seven more H-6s (updated Tu-16 BADGERS, rough contemporaries of our B-47, which went out of service in the early 60s). To put that in perspective, the USAF has twelve tankers per squadron...and we've got twenty-six squadrons in service as of now.

Does this mean the Chinese can't carry out big, long-ranged aerial ops? Not exactly, but it severely limits where they can go and what they can do. On the other hand, given the way they run their mouths...one must wonder what they're thinking.

And why.

Mike
Posted by: Mike Kozlowski   2020-08-22 08:40  

#2  Not bad for a "developing nation".
Posted by: Clem   2020-08-22 07:59  

#1  I'm sure they fine during Typhoon season. They certain have modern meteorological services that can predict these things, right?
Posted by: Procopius2k   2020-08-22 07:41  

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