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| -Signs, Portents, and the Weather- | |
| Winnie-the-Flu Comparison | |
| 2020-07-30 | |
| I got this analysis from a STEM prof I know. Puts CCP flu in perspective. "So, I thought about prior flu and did some search, then a few simple calculations.  Corona virus comparison with prior flu. 1957 flu The estimated number of deaths was 1.1 million worldwide and 116,000 in the United States. Also: Britannica on 1957 flu And: Smithsonian Magazine on 1957 flu 1968 Flu: The estimated number of deaths was 1 million worldwide and about 100,000 in the United States. Compare with the U.S. population which has increased. Divide death count by population. Year Population Ratio 1957 177,750,000 so 1957 flu mortality 0.65 per thousand 1968 205,800,000 so 1968 flu mortality 0.49 per thousand 2020 331,000,000 Covid, if 150,000 die, 0.45 per thousand 2020 331,000,000 Covid, if 210,000 die, 0.63 per thousand  Actually the 1957 and 1968 flu were even worse because, as with Covid, they were more deadly for people over 65. There were far fewer people over 65, and fewer yet over 80, in 1957 and 1968 compared with now, so the rates were higher then than is indicated by dividing by the full population.  for a social comparison, read this (the main link)
"If you wish to make a stronger point, 1918 could be added using the same kinds of sources. There are of course nuances and cavils. Perhaps people these days are immunized for that. Â A bit more labor, appropriate for the retired, but also a stronger point - find population data for over 65; do the division for each year." | |
| Posted by:Mercutio |
| #3 ...so zero out CDC and start over again. |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2020-07-30 13:24 |
| #2 Puts CCP flu in perspective. Suggests we have learned NOTHING about infectious diseases. |
| Posted by: Skidmark 2020-07-30 13:01 |