Via Insty [Wash Examiner] Lebanon and Syria are both lurching toward implosion, with popular uprisings or even civil wars an increasing possibility.
In Syria’s case, the underlying challenge is an economy destroyed by nine years of civil war. Yet, where that economy once tottered along with Bashar Assad’s retention of power in Damascus and control over trade, that dynamic has now dissipated. The dictator’s foreign capital reserves are depleted while inflation is skyrocketing amid a shortage of goods and the Syrian pound’s collapsing value.
Making matters even worse for Assad is the fact that his two primary sponsors, Russia and Iran, cannot support him. After all, their economies have been greatly damaged by the collapse in global oil prices — oil exports being critical to their revenue streams — and U.S. sanctions.
Attempting to restrain the growing crisis, Assad has resorted to looting former allies in the Syrian elite. But it’s not working. And things are about to get worse.
New U.S. legislation under the Caesar Act, named for a whistleblower who documented Assad’s torture and killing of political prisoners, will take effect next week, further isolating Syria’s economy. As things continue to decline, Assad will face the growing threat of a revolt from within his Alawite power base. Military officers and financiers in that circle are aware that overthrowing Assad and engaging in serious cease-fire talks with Assad’s opponents would lead to rapid U.S. sanctions relief. An operative question, then, is how much suffering they are willing to accept before jumping to the gun?
Assad’s only insurance here is his family reputation for mass violence as a means of political surety.
Things are little better in next-door Lebanon. Beirut is once again awash with protesters. A new government has been unable to reform the crony-sectarianism at the heart of Lebanese politics, thus obstructing much-needed access to international financing relief. The Syrian economic crisis also plays a connecting role here. Over the past few years, Lebanon’s financial sector has found buffer by providing service in Damascus. But now that Damascus cannot afford that engagement, the money flow has dried up.
All of this poses a particular problem for the Hezbollah terrorist organization, which has long used its powerful militia and cronyism to control Lebanese politics and undermine the security apparatus. But where, as now, all Lebanese are suffering under a common crisis, Hezbollah risks being abandoned by its allies and the possibility of real political reform occurring. That would gut Hezbollah’s influence over Lebanon and its means of exporting the Iranian revolution — something Tehran is keenly aware of.
Where does this leave us?
Well, with the expectation that as the summer heat grows, it will be joined in intensity with escalating economic pain. America should stand firm in support of true political reform in both nations, cognizant of the fact that such reform is the only way these suffering peoples will find final relief.