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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Coronaplague Roundup
2020-05-21


The truth about US coronavirus deaths: American fatalities per capita are lower than EIGHT European countries
  • [Daily Mail, Where America Gets Its News] The US has recorded more than 92,000 COVID-19 deaths - the highest number of anywhere in the world by far

  • But when folded into the country's population of 328million, it accounts for 0.028 percent of Americans

  • In Belgium, 9,150 have died which accounts for 0.08 percent of the country's 11.4million person population

  • The US has done more tests than anyone at 12.67million - but per capita, it is eighth in the world on testing

  • Only 3% of the US population has been tested compared to 6% of Spain and Portugal and 4% of the UK

  • Russia and Qatar both claim to have tested more than 5 percent of their populations

  • Testing is key to every country's reopening plans and in the US, it is handled state by state

  • Every state is now partially reopening but all are still a long way from getting back to life before the pandemic

  • New York City, the epicenter of the crisis, remains closed and will do for at least a few more weeks, official say


From Yesterday: New Chinese coronavirus outbreak shows signs pathogen could be changing, with sufferers taking more time to recover and carrying the bug for longer
  • [DailyMail] China has found a new cluster of cases in the provinces of Jilin and Heilongjiang

  • Patients there have been taking longer to recover than in Wuhan, top medic said

  • The patients are showing symptoms later and rarely showing any signs of fever

  • The virus found in Jilin and Heilongjiang was probably imported from abroad, which could explain the different symptoms

  • Both Jilin and Heilongjiang border Russia




Only 1% of Danes have virus antibodies
[ARABNEWS]



Data Leak Suggests China Had Hundreds of Thousands of Coronavirus Cases in 230 Cities

CDC Now Says Virus 'Does Not Spread Easily' on Surfaces
[PJMedia] “COVID-19 is a new disease and we are still learning about how it spreads. It may be possible for COVID-19 to spread in other ways, but these are not thought to be the main ways the virus spreads,” according to the CDC.

The change comes after a preliminary study from March suggested that the novel coronavirus can remain in the air for up to three hours, and live on surfaces such as plastic and stainless steel for up to three days, prompting many to take to wiping down packages and other items. However, at the time, the study was yet not peer-reviewed, and, as Yahoo notes, did not determine if people could be infected from touching certain surfaces analyzed.

Dr. John Whyte, the chief medical officer for the healthcare website WebMD, called the CDC’s changes an “important step in clarifying how the virus is spread, especially as we gain new information.”

“It also may help reduce anxiety and stress. Many people were concerned that by simply touching an object they may get coronavirus and that’s simply not the case. Even when a virus may stay on a surface, it doesn’t mean that it’s actually infectious,” Whyte told Fox News in an email.

REVOLT: 1,200 Calif. Clergy Tell Newsom They're Meeting in Person, With or Without Permission

California border hospitals hit by surge in COVID-19 cases from Mexico
[Jpost] The only two hospitals in Southern California's rural Imperial County were forced to close their doors to new coronavirus patients on Tuesday, after admitting scores believed stricken with the virus from across the border in Mexico, officials said.

The surge in patients consisted of US citizens who live in Mexicali, capital of the Mexican state of Baja California, and were turned away from hospitals overrun with coronavirus cases there, said Dr. Adolphe Edward, chief executive officer of the El Centro Regional Medical Center.

Edward said his 161-bed hospital in El Centro, the main city in Imperial County about 100 miles (160 km) east of San Diego, ended up with 65 COVID-19-positive patients from Monday night's influx, while the 106-bed Pilgrims Memorial Hospital in nearby Brawley admitted 28.

"Our numbers just skyrocketed last night," Edward said on his hospital's Facebook page.
Posted by:Fred

#9  g(r)omgoru, you are wrong.

Herd immunity starts having an effect depending on the R0 value. Its not a stark line, its a gradient. Herd Immunity Threshold is not that difficult an equation.

R = infectivity
p = proportion of the population that shows immune by infection recovered or by vaccination
pc is the HIT

R0 x (1 - p) = 1
so Pc = 1 - 1 /R0

For an R0 of 2, herd immunity shows up at about 50%.

To achieve an HIT of 90% the R0 has to be 10 or more. Do the math.

Right now, best estimates based on current models (which may very well be garbage due tio garbage data) is about 5.7, so for herd immunity to become a factor, you need a HIT of about 82%

Feel free to look up the equations yourself.
Posted by: Marilyn Tojo7566   2020-05-21 23:24  

#8  The March 16 report by Imperial College epidemiologist Neil Ferguson is credited (or blamed) with causing the U.K. to lock down and contributing to the domino effect of global lockdowns. The model has since come under intense criticism for being “totally unreliable and a buggy mess.”

This is the same Neil Ferguson who in 2005 predicted 200 million could die from the bird flu. Total deaths over the last 15 years turned out to be 455. This is the same Neil Ferguson who in 2009 predicted that 65,000 people could die in the U.K. from the swine flu. The final number ended up around 392. Now, in 2020, he predicted that 500,000 British would die from coronavirus.

His deeply flawed model led the United States to fear over 2 million deaths and was used to justify locking down nearly the entire nation. Dr. Ferguson is a character of Shakespearean drama and tragedy. His March 17 presentation to British elites on the dire need to take action ironically may have infected Boris Johnson and other top British officials, as Mr. Ferguson himself tested positive for COVID-19 two days later. Then in May he resigned in disgrace after he broke his own quarantine rules to meet clandestinely with a married woman. [Excerpt from a Zero Hedge post]
Posted by: Clem   2020-05-21 22:23  

#7  This Neil Ferguson wanker is an absolute joke. And he evidently has a bit of a history. It's disgusting.
Posted by: Clem   2020-05-21 08:18  

#6  German virologist Hendrick Streeck talked about this "surface" matter weeks or months ago, even on door handles, etc. Nice to see the CDC kinda-sorta get with the program. Finally.
Posted by: Clem   2020-05-21 08:16  

#5  Iran says 10,000 of its health workers infected with coronavirus
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-05-21 07:50  

#4  Ferguson did pull numbers from his arse random number generator until he got one he liked.

Utterly discredited.
Posted by: Bright Pebbles   2020-05-21 07:45  

#3  Step aside, Pomade Boy:
State approves San Diego County reopening plan that includes in-person dining, retail
Posted by: Frank G   2020-05-21 06:57  

#2  Coronavirus: Global cases surpass 5 million, South American cases rising
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-05-21 01:40  

#1  Only 1% of Danes have virus antibodies

They had 1920/M = 0.2% so for every registered CV19 case we have 5 asymptomatic.
Their Swinish neighbors had 3424/M = 0.3424% ==> 1.7% immune (maybe).
Herd immunity requires 90% immune.
Yet "people" criticize Neil Ferguson for pulling numbers from his ass!
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-05-21 01:21  

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