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| Science & Technology |
| ‘Superspreader' events may be responsible for 80 per cent or more of all coronavirus cases |
| 2020-05-20 |
| SPIN, STRANGENESS, AND CHARM via instapundit [Telegraph] - A small number of so-called "superspreading" events appear to be responsible for the great majority of coronavirus cases, raising the prospect of the virus being controlled if those events can be reliably pinned down. Many infectious diseases follow an "20/80" rule, whereby the majority of cases are caused by a small number of infectious individuals. These include pathogens such as HIV, measles and Ebola, as well as the coronaviruses Mers and Sars. As the journal Nature noted recently, "population estimates of R0 can obscure considerable individual variation in infectiousness". This is now thought to be the case with Covid-19. An analysis by researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and the Alan Turing Institute strongly suggests there is a "high degree of individual-level variation" in the transmission of Covid-19. By applying a mathematical model to reported outbreaks of the disease outside China, they estimated that 80 per cent of all secondary transmissions were caused by a small fraction of infected individuals - around 10 percent. "Our finding of a highly-overdispersed offspring distribution highlights a potential benefit to focusing intervention efforts on superspreading", the study concluded. "As most infected individuals do not contribute to the expansion of an epidemic, the effective reproduction number could be drastically reduced by preventing relatively rare superspreading events". The race is now on to pinpoint and characterise these "superspreader" events. If we know where the trouble lies we can let the rest of society open up again. Tempting though it may be, most experts say we should not look for individuals. Superspreading events are determined by a complex mix of behavioural and environmental factors. That's a relief - given the means that some individuals here advocated for ending HIV Even sexually transmitted viruses like HIV tend to be "superspread" more by things like needle sharing and prostitution than individuals. Funerals were a major problem in the 2014-16 Ebola outbreak in West Africa. With Sars-Cov-2, it seems likely any infected individual could become a superspreader. Who we are is likely to be less important than where we go and what we do when we are there. Already, many superspreading venues are known. Hospitals, nursing homes, large dormitories, food processing plans and food markets have all been associated with major outbreaks of Covid-19. Indoor gyms and exercise studios also appear to lend themselves to superspreading events. A new South Korean study found that 112 people were infected over 24 days after attending "dance classes set to Latin rhythms" at 12 indoor sports facilities. "Intense physical exercise in densely populated sports facilities could increase risk for infection", said the authors. "Vigorous exercise in confined spaces should be minimised during outbreaks". Fitness is bad for you! ...In Washington State on the west coast of America, a church choir went ahead with its weekly rehearsal in early March even as Covid-19 was sweeping through Seattle, an hour to the south. Dozens of its members went on to catch the virus and two died. Just people exercising their constitutional rights ...One of the biggest superspreading events in Europe came in the February half term holidays when thousands of people gathered in alpine ski resorts. Hundreds of infections in Germany, Iceland, Norway, Denmark and Britain have been traced back to the resort of Ischgl in the Tyrolean Alps. Many had visited the Kitzloch, a bar known for its après-ski parties. The bar is tightly packed and famous for "beer pong" — a drinking game in which revellers take turns to spit the same ping-pong ball into a beer glass. ...In London, cases of coronavirus have dropped dramatically since the lockdown. The superspreading events that were once spreading the virus so widely have now stopped. |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |
| #2 Interesting how they mentioned a church in Washington state but forgot the Pelosi DeBlasio 'come out and prove you're not afraid/racist events. |
| Posted by: rjschwarz 2020-05-20 11:08 |
| #1 What, no barbershops or salons? I was told by the best 'authorities' they were breeding grounds for the virus. (do I need to put a /sarc on that?) |
| Posted by: Procopius2k 2020-05-20 08:13 |