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Science & Technology
IHME May 4 Forecast
2020-05-05
Between April 29 and May 4, their improvements to their model resulted in an 86% increase. Maybe G(r)omgoru was right, all along?
[Covid.HealthData] Based on our updated model and latest available data, a projected 134,475 cumulative COVID-19 deaths (estimate range of 95,092 to 242,890) could occur in the US through August. These projections are considerably higher than previous estimates, representing the combined effects of death model updates and formally incorporating the effect of changes in mobility and social distancing policies into transmission dynamics.

IHME Commentary
Posted by:Bobby

#26  ^ So... he impresses the chicks birds with the size of his doomsday predictions?
Posted by: Lex   2020-05-05 16:50  

#25  "visits to a relative" - not quite. Posted for tomorrow. He was getting a Booty Call from his married lover - surprisingly it was a female
Posted by: Frank G   2020-05-05 16:47  

#24  That wanker. He resigned not due to his bogus work. But, in any case, that twerp is gone.
Posted by: Clem   2020-05-05 16:43  

#23  Wow. I expected that Ferguson resigned because he broke the rules of careful and professional use of data, science and logic. No, he broke the social distancing rules around visits to a relative.

No professional punishment whatsoever for yet again, three times at least, royally screwing up policymakers' understanding of what to expect regarding spread of a disease.

Nice to see Britain's got its priorities straight.
Posted by: Lex   2020-05-05 16:42  

#22  And now, Ferguson has resigned.
Posted by: M. Murcek   2020-05-05 16:21  

#21  Evidently this Ferguson bloke is a real wanker, and it has been alleged that Fauxi & Scarf Lady used his "data" to come up with their zany ideas.
Posted by: Clem   2020-05-05 16:08  

#20  More fun and games with Imperial College's Neil Ferguson. This fool has been botching predicted lethality of diseases for decades, including ridiculously wrong estimates for CJD/Mad Cow disease and then for Bird Flu.
Posted by: Lex   2020-05-05 15:57  

#19  #16 There are 16,866,020 medical workers in USA. Suppose 0.01% are "frontline". That's 1686. Two suicides in NYC 2/1686 = 0.0012 = 0.12%.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-05-05 15:20  

#18  You maybe saying Texas is the same as NY?😊
Houston and surrounds pretty much are.
Posted by: Skidmark   2020-05-05 15:17  

#17  #14 Every single statement is taken from your posts, Lex.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-05-05 15:12  

#16  Suicide is killing frontline medical workers, but mental-health experts say the situation is far from hopeless
Posted by: Skidmark   2020-05-05 15:07  

#15  the wise voices from Stanford's biomedical faculty

"Publish", "publish", "paper", "paper", "grant$", "tenure"...
Posted by: Skidmark   2020-05-05 15:05  

#14  I'm waiting for 100000 suicides of people who lost their livelihood and complete destruction of American economy. If you can throw in a few million young people whose lives were completely destroyed by lookdown, I'll take it as well.

"Are you trying to be offensive, or just merely stupid?"



Posted by: Lex   2020-05-05 15:04  

#13  Now, Glenmore -are you questioning Texas's uniqueness? You maybe saying Texas is the same as NY?😊
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-05-05 14:35  

#12  there's no reason you in USA couldn't have had the same CV19 stats as we have in Israel.

Israel 1879 cases per million
Texas 1197 cases per million

Israel 27 deaths per million
Texas 33 deaths per million
Posted by: Glenmore   2020-05-05 14:22  

#11  Lots of data still coming in -

That they got sick here in Las Vegas in December and January, and the illness was COVID-19.

So it wasn't late as February.

And the IHMF model?

We're starting to enter the excuse period of modelers caught with data that politicians exploited without question to make bad decisions. Again, never a word about 'confidence' in the models, just use them as gospel.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2020-05-05 12:13  

#10  #7 & #8 I'm waiting for 100000 suicides of people who lost their livelihood and complete destruction of American economy. If you can throw in a few million young people whose lives were completely destroyed by lookdown, I'll take it as well.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-05-05 12:06  

#9  #7 & #8 I'm waiting for 100000 suicides of people who lost their livelihood and complete destruction of American economy. If you can throw in a few million young people whose lives were completely destroyed by lookdown, I'll take it as well.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-05-05 12:06  

#8  Listen for once to any of the wise voices from Stanford's biomedical faculty about the foolishness of relying, at this point, on yet more hypotheticals. Here's Dr. Scott Atlas:

"Leaders must examine accumulated data to see what has actually happened, rather than keep emphasizing hypothetical projections; combine that empirical evidence with fundamental principles of biology established for decades; and then thoughtfully restore the country to function.”
Posted by: Lex   2020-05-05 11:39  

#7  Just admit it, g: your/Neil Ferguson's absurd doomsday model was wrong. It never should have been used as the basis for policy. That fool should be fired.

The data's in and the evidence is clear: There was and is no valid scientific reason for destroying the economy by locking down everyone.
Posted by: Lex   2020-05-05 11:35  

#6  Yes, yes, Lex - except, as I point out in another post, in California you just starting CV19 pandemic.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-05-05 10:59  

#5  there's no reason you in USA couldn't have had the same CV19 stats as we have in Israel.

Silicon Valley / San Francisco does: 1 COVID death per 17,000 residents -- even though that region, unlike Israel, is on the front lines.

Unlike Israel, SF/San Mateo/Santa Clara had dozens of weekly direct flights to Wuhan and other Chinese cities.

Unlike Israel, this region has nearly one million Chinese or Chinese-American residents of whom over 50,000 traveled back and forth to Wuhan and other Chinese cities in December and January alone.

The lockdown in SF/SM/SC has had f-all to do with the low numbers of fatalities in that region. The virus was circulating, being spread all over these counties by 50,000 travelers returning from Wuhan etc, in the months before the lockdown.

If the virus were such a threat as your absurd models predicted, San Francisco would have seen thousands of deaths. Grand total as of yesterday in SF was 29.

NYC's absurdly high # of COVID deaths is almost certainly explained by the incompetence and stupid mistakes committed by that city's inept leadership.
Posted by: Lex   2020-05-05 10:49  

#4  I think it will take longer. There have been too many reports of Covid-19 being 'assigned' as the 'cause of death'. Two examples; my 73 yo brother in law was wracked by Alzheimer's, name something and he had it, was put in hospice and on a morphine drip for about two months before he died. He was put on a ventilator the last week. They assigned his cause of death as Covid-19, no autopsy, incinerated his body and haven't delivered the ashes to the family after 2+ weeks. My 96 yo aunt is on the same track. Both are or were extremely ill for years. I smell a rat.
Posted by: Whiskey Mike   2020-05-05 10:28  

#3  I've examined the numbers, computed the area and 1st and 2nd derivatives of the curve, matched deaths with demographic clusters from census data, distributed deaths across DoL job class identification and have the following prediction.

By the end of the panic, there will be a model that accurately represents the numbers of dead citizens.
Posted by: Skidmark   2020-05-05 10:13  

#2  You know, IMO, there's no reason you in USA couldn't have had the same CV19 stats as we have in Israel. You certainly invest more per capita in your medical system than we do.

p.s. I looked up (in Wiki) the SIR model they're using - it can't predict anything because it doesn't have a death rate. Everyone infected recovers and becomes resistant.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-05-05 03:40  

#1  The good news? Even the high range of the current estimate is about 10% of the original 2.2 million death forecast that started the freakout about March 1st.
Posted by: Bobby   2020-05-05 00:39  

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