| Submit your comments on this article |
| China-Japan-Koreas |
| Kim Jong Un Won't Be Dead Until There's A Succession In Place. I Wouldn't Bet On What It Will Be |
| 2020-04-27 |
| The Lid via Instapundit ...First, to reiterate: The public knows very little about what’s going on in North Korea. Under the traditional circumstances up until the last 18 months or so, the U.S. government didn’t know a whole lot more than the public. Even with the Trump-Kim rapprochement, we can’t congratulate ourselves that our direct visibility into the machinations of the North Korean leadership has expanded that much. That said, we aren’t without signals to interpret. South Korea, moreover, a U.S. ally and the nation most closely attuned to the North, watches as vigilantly as possible and shares a great deal with us. South Korea is also as closed-mouthed as necessary for security and strategic latitude. The South Koreans will not be tipping their hand publicly on anything. ...Kim hasn’t been seen since 11 April. He was missing for a six-week period in 2014 when he reportedly had surgery to remove a cyst on his ankle, and there is still a chance that something similar is going on this time. The speculation in 2014 was not attended by the same categorical reports of his death as in 2020, however. North Korea isn’t going to announce that he’s dead and then have a succession scuffle. Even if he’s dead at this minute, we won’t be told he’s dead until there’s a plan. For what it’s worth, a Japanese media source is reporting that Kim is said to be in a "vegetative state" at this point. Taking that to mean "not yet declared dead" would be the right interpretation, if the report is tethered to an irrefutable fact. China has a delegation in North Korea, as we would expect. All the reporting has emphasized that it includes medical experts. That is probably a distractor. The Chinese delegation is there to work the political angles, with Kim either weakened or no longer functioning. Working the political succession, in the event of Kim’s demise, would typically include deciding who no longer needs to remain above ground in the North Korean leadership. That’s especially the case given Xi Jinping’s character as a classic Communist dictator. The Western media are focused on Kim’s sister, Kim Yo-Jong. They even have a somewhat hilariously prevalent talking point going, about North Korea getting a female leader before the U.S. does.’ For those of you who are unfamiliar with Newsweek columnist Seth Abraham, he’s written two books. The first explained how Trump was guilty of Russia collusion. The second was how Trump was guilty in the Ukraine hoax. ...China is not the only interested party with the potential to weigh in on North Korea’s course going forward. Trump has established, by making a handful of initial agreements with Kim Jong-Un, that the U.S. has such an interest as well. This condition has not previously existed in the Korea equation. Granting that we (the public) don’t actually know what’s up with Kim, we shouldn’t discount the possibility that the Trump administration is working the problem on that basis. We would work it alongside South Korea — and the objective would be to move the Korea problem forward, toward a path of reunification, rather than leaving it stagnant and tethered to the terms of the 67-year-old armistice. (Much would depend on the readiness and courage of the Moon Jae-In government for such an enterprise.) There are a couple of reasons of overriding importance to push in that direction. One is that reunification has to be the ultimate goal, and the timing has never offered such opportunity, with the spell of China over North Korea’s foreign relations broken, and so much in flux around the globe. We should not miss this opportunity. It could be one of the most transformative moves of the young century. A vital feature of the opportunity is that China’s economic and military circumstances are in no better shape than anyone else’s. China isn’t able to counter U.S.-backed geopolitical momentum for a new direction in Korea with a decisive military move. Nothing China might start would be conclusive quickly, and that’s a significant decision factor for Beijing. ...We’ll see. Observers are wise to hold their peace for the time being. But two mental touchstones are essential. One, we don’t know what is happening, but we know what should be happening. The U.S. should be taking advantage of a singular moment to push for a new direction on the Korean peninsula. |
| Posted by:g(r)omgoru |