That's how exponential from a small initial value looks, remember?
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| -Short Attention Span Theater- |
| CES convention held in Las Vegas earlier this year may have played a key role in spreading the coronavirus throughout the US, report reveals |
| 2020-04-24 |
| [MAIL] A report claims to have evidence that this year's Consumer Electronics Show in Las Vegas played a key role in spreading the coronavirus throughout the US. The event, held in January, carried on amid the outbreak happening in China, which experts say created 'an ideal venue for transmission.' Multiple attendees became seriously ill following the days after CES, but was dismissed as nothing more than having the 'CES flu' that occurs every year. However, these individuals suffered different symptoms than previous years including fever, shortness of breath, dry cough, pains and body aches – all of which are caused by COVID-19. A professor who attended the conference came down with a sickness after the event and recently tested positive for the coronavirus – making his case 'the first clear evidence that the virus was likely circulating at the conference.' The conference was attended by more than 180,000 people, many of whom were from outside of the US, and more than 100 of the people traveled from Wuhan, China where the coronavirus first began. |
| Posted by:Skidmark |
| #24 It is not a good scene at all, Lex. |
| Posted by: Clem 2020-04-24 17:49 |
| #23 decimation You mean devastation. 1/3d, not 1/10th, of the economy. USA's energy supremacy: gone USA's small-medium businesses supporting ca 50 million households: cratered USA's next generation of high-achieving college grads: permanently in debt now, if they can even manage to scare up funds to pay for college It's become really simple: we can't have 32% unemployment and still have a peaceful democracy. Either this lockdown ends, and ends very soon, or we will see mass violence in this country. Our elites are sleepwalking, drifting, blind. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-24 16:45 |
| #22 Even the NY City deaths percentage is questionable. Initial antibody testing indicates they may have as many as 1.8 MILLION who have had the virus. And the assignment of a death to COVID-19 may be inflated by incorrect cause due to CMS reimbursement money being greater in a COVID-19 case than for, say, a heart attack or stroke. The numbers may seem high because all the cases have piled up in a short time. Spread them over a typical length 6-8 month "pandemic flu" season (like 2009), and you lose the headline numbers. The US Government and state governments have done what the Chinese and Russians have dreamed of for decades, yet were never able to achieve on their own: The decimation of the US Economy. |
| Posted by: Marilyn Tojo7566 2020-04-24 16:21 |
| #21 The parade was a week or so after the game, giving some extra time to spread about. The city closed for that parade. KC area is about 2.5 million. That's 100s of thousands of people screaming in each others' mouths and licking hot wing sauce off their fingers. Or that KC style BBQ on 8 hour smoked meats, its instinctual finger licking. Winter time too, nothing else to do then go to the sports bar and talk Chiefs and watch college basketball and prepare to host the Big 12 conference. As of today, those four counties have a total of 1061 confirmed cases, 107 deaths attributed. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2020-04-24 13:35 |
| #20 *add Leavenworth County to the GKCA. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2020-04-24 12:48 |
| #19 One infected person - that was the San Francisco 49rs in that game. The other team, Kansas City Chiefs, had an assholes to elbows ticker tape parade with people drinking each others beer a la famous playoff end zone dance, straight chugging other peoples' beers. That was not a warm sunny day in KC, but cool wintery no precipitation. The Greater KC Area counties on the Kansas side are Wyondotte and Johnson. Huge Chiefs following in Douglas County, home of University of Kansas and a shitpot of bars, sports bars, restaurants etc for game watching, yelling, cheering, food and drink consumption. And a decent Chinese demographic in both community and academia. |
| Posted by: swksvolFF 2020-04-24 12:45 |
| #18 #16 That generic graph right there, that's what some people call gospel. Posted by M. Murcek I thought that was a pyramid? |
| Posted by: Frank G 2020-04-24 11:59 |
| #17 Yes they are, Bobby. Bad flu season = 80,000 deaths. That's where we're headed. The lockdown in Santa Clara County is almost totally irrelevant to that outcome. We'd have the same result if we'd just committed everyone to washing hands, some distancing and reasonable precautions esp around the elderly and the frail. Again, there was no lockdown in Santa Clara County during the first 12 or so weeks of direct exposure, in the US epicenter where literally thousands of people fresh off a plane from China including around 1,000 from Wuhan were circulating freely, spreading the virus to colleagues and neighbors all over the county. And still we have a death rate of only 1 per 20,000 population. No f---ing way we will come anywhere close to those ridiculous projections from the Imperial College guy or the UW team. They were off by orders of magnitude and never should have been used as the basis for policy. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-24 11:49 |
| #16 That generic graph right there, that's what some people call gospel. |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2020-04-24 11:37 |
| #15 Why Lex, some of those ratios are somewhere in the range of seasonal flu rates, amirite? |
| Posted by: Bobby 2020-04-24 11:26 |
| #14 ^According to this graph, plague started getting serious in Florida at the end of March. Possible, started by one infected person who went to Superbowl. That's how exponential from a small initial value looks, remember? |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-04-24 09:13 |
| #13 BLUF: there is no f---ing way that this country or any place that observes intelligent sanitary precautions, esp re washing hands, not embracing etc and taking special care around the elderly and frail -- no f---ing way that we can exceed a deaths:pop ratio nationally of 1:3,000. Long version: The only way this country could exceed 100,000 deaths from this virus this year would be if our incompetent leaders did stupid things that made the situation worse - like shutting down ORs, or diverting scarce urgent-care resources in order to uselessly stuff intubation tubes down the throats of elderly patients on death's door. Downstate New York's death rate is almost certainly attributable to a set of systematic, catastrophic errors made by its policymakers, its residents and its health care practitioners. NY cannot and should not have a death rate higher than Santa Clara County - let alone as high as the Diamond Princess. The Diamond Princess and its "ideal incubation environment" showed us the doomsday scenario, with real empirical data. That was a 1:1,000 deaths-to-exposed population rate. Santa Clara County shows us a worse than middling but not dire case, over not 24 days but four months, not a closed environment comprising 3,711 confined passengers & crew but a 2 million, heavily Chinese and racially diverse, mixed urban/suburban (and a few rural) population of whom a large percentage were directly exposed to the virus. That pessimistic but not doomsday case has resulted so far, four months later, in a death rate of 1:20,000, which will rise to s.t. like 1:2,000 at most. Most places that observe basic precautions - wash your hands, protect the elderly and frail, but not shut down the eeconomy over this -- other places will not exceed that 1:1,000 deaths:pop. ratio, most likely stabilizing at 1:3,000 or 1:4,000. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-24 09:04 |
| #12 The IHME model says Cali passed the peak deaths four days ago, with 1400-odd deaths yesterday out of a projected 1700-odd. Jus' sayin'. |
| Posted by: Bobby 2020-04-24 08:57 |
| #11 I spend a lot of time in the |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2020-04-24 08:55 |
| #10 /\ I don't know. Possible. Being outside getting fresh air seems to be an old wife's tale that might have some merit. |
| Posted by: Clem 2020-04-24 08:44 |
| #9 ^So, climate? |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-04-24 08:39 |
| #8 And tens of thousands who attended the Super Bowl in February in Florida....anything? |
| Posted by: Clem 2020-04-24 08:28 |
| #7 #4 To me it proves that California is different than the rest of the World - at least in infection rates*. But don't worry Lex, judging by the slope of the covid cases it is coming to California. *I'd assume the rich & famous, while condemning Trump_Hitler's stupid HCQ, consume it like candy. But now it has reached the poorer areas. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-04-24 08:22 |
| #6 ^ a combination of garbage data; panicked officials; conformism; irresponsible, sensationalist, stupid reporters; and the usual human cognitive errors of ascertainment bias, confirmation bias, confounding bias and every other sort of bias. None of which invalidates Besoeker's thesis. When all of the above are present, there is no more opportune or target-rich environment for plots and inductions dangerous. The world's best spy agencies would be foolish not to seek to take advantage of such an unprecedented time of collective unreason, hysteria and false information. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-24 08:07 |
| #5 Ref #2: "made it happen on purpose"? They knew. We may have known as well. No one said, 'hey WAIT....Wuhan attendees, perhaps a postponement is in order." Criminal negligence at a minimum, but no worries. Nothing will come of it. Nothing much comes of anything these days. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2020-04-24 07:58 |
| #4 Many thousands in Santa Clara County, the heart of Silicon Valley, were exposed to this virus in December and January, when there was neither a travel ban nor any sort of lockdown or any public health precaution at all. San Jose International during that non-lockdown period was receiving hundreds of visitors each week from Wuhan itself, and thousands more visitors from other cities in China. SC Co. health officials announced yesterday that the first COVID death in the county occurred on Feb 6. So we can see that the disease was spreading, over at least a 6-week period, across a county that has 2 million people, with no lockdown whatsoever. How many of those 2 million people have died so far as a result of this? 95. Repeat: 95 deaths -- out of 2 million population. And only 1,987 infections total as of 4/23/2020. So a deaths:population ratio of 1:20,000, in the US epicenter of the virus's spread -- and this minuscule death rate has occurred after nearly 2 months of completely unrestrained travel, back and forth from San Jose, to Wuhan itself and to many other cities in China, with zero social distancing, let alone lockdowns And this minuscule death rate has occurred in a county whose population is 38% Asian, with a Chinese population that includes, minimum, 100,000 people who have direct ties to people living and working in China - including thousands with a direct connection to Wuhan. How on earth can this data be reconciled with the data being collected around the world? Either Santa Clara County's data is garbage, or other jurisdictions' and nations' data is garbage (or both are garbage). But it cannot be the case that this epidemic is as lethal as claimed if the American epicenter for the virus -- Silicon Valley, with its close connection to China and its many thousands of traveler's to Wuhan and the rest of China -- if the epicenter only has a 1:20,000 death rate after FOUR MONTHS of exposure including near-total exposure for almost three months. Not possible. From which we can also conclude with certainty that - the statistics being gathered around the world, about infection rates and actual COVID-caused deaths per population are largely inaccurate, inconsistent and not comparable across geographies, time periods, nursing homes, hospitals and other venues and certifying authorities; - we have no idea about the degree of causality between lockdowns and either the infection rate or the death rate; - the decisions made by policymakers have almost no connection to reality. Draw your own conclusions, but most rational people would look at the above and conclude that much of the world has gone insane. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-24 07:55 |
| #3 Different show, but when I used to attend COMDEX in Vegas, the running joke was "The geeks bring one clean shirt and a $10 bill and they don't change either one all week." |
| Posted by: M. Murcek 2020-04-24 07:51 |
| #2 Seriously? Going "made it happen on purpose"? A trade show with lots of Chinese vendors turns out to be an event where a virus from China was spread. That doesn't require any conspiracy. |
| Posted by: Rob Crawford 2020-04-24 07:50 |
| #1 The show ran 7-11 Jan 2020. The event, held in January, carried on amid the outbreak happening in China, which experts say created 'an ideal venue for transmission.' As planned. |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2020-04-24 07:28 |