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| -Signs, Portents, and the Weather- |
| COVID-19 Antibody Seroprevalence in Santa Clara County, California |
| 2020-04-17 |
 [medRxiv] The population-weighted prevalence was 2.81% (95CI 2.24-3.37%). Under the three scenarios for test performance characteristics, the population prevalence of COVID-19 in Santa Clara ranged from 2.49% (95CI 1.80-3.17%) to 4.16% (2.58-5.70%). These prevalence estimates represent a range between 48,000 and 81,000 people infected in Santa Clara County by early April, 50-85-fold more than the number of confirmed cases. |
| Posted by:KBK |
| #4 Taking the average as 3.5%, that means 96.5% of Santa Clara has not yet been infected. They don’t have herd immunity or anything close to it. |
| Posted by: KBK 2020-04-17 14:22 |
| #3 So that implies, adjusting for demographics and geography, maybe 500,000-700,000 Californians have antibodies. There have been 347 COVID deaths to date in California. = Fatality rate of 0.5% to 0.75%... almost identical to the Diamond Princess case fatality rate's 95th % confidence level which the CDC estimated to be 0.63%. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-17 14:00 |
| #2 2.81% is prevalence? |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-04-17 13:35 |
| #1 ABCNews article |
| Posted by: KBK 2020-04-17 12:46 |