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| -Land of the Free | |||||
| Covid-19: Security implications | |||||
| 2020-04-08 | |||||
(1) tainted "wet market" bat meat; Not knowing whether this event is a zero-level national security threat versus a high-level national security threat is a direct function of our not having sufficient information, the blame for which can be firmly placed on the Chinese government and its failure to provide critical information at critically important times.
First, even if this pandemic was not intentional, it could have been. In other words, China and a lot of other bad actors have the capability of unleashing a pandemic of this nature upon the earth, and it is a threat the USA is clearly unprepared for. Secondly, even if the unleashing of COVID-19 was not intentional, the Chinese and other potential enemies have now seen how the U.S. government would react to a bioterror attack, and they have learned that the decision-makers will default on the side of short-term humanitarian concerns, sacrificing long-term damage to our economy and the freedoms that are the bedrock of our civilization. This means that the response will catalyze any future attack because the decision apparatus will destroy itself and wipe out the sources of its advantage as the world’s only superpower. Enemy knowledge of this response increases the likelihood that there will be an intentional bioterror attack in the future. If the number of dead Americans from coronavirus turns out to be 200K, a number that many are skeptical of, then the percentage of Americans dead from the pandemic will be .057 percent of the total population. Will someone in the mainstream media at least consider whether closing the economy down and compromising our way of life is worth the price of .057 percent of the population? If someone says, "if it saves one life to lose the economy, it's worth it," that person needs to be flogged. As callous as it sounds, the calculation needs to be made, not in terms of dollars, but in terms of lives. How many lives is the government willing to trade for having a professional sports industry, a restaurant industry, an airline industry, or a manufacturer of air defense weapons? The answer to that question is not zero. It never has been. A leader who is willing to make this calculation is not a profile in callousness, as the media would suggest, but a profile in courage. This is not to say that the U.S. government and state governments should not have taken prudent measures. But it is very clear the cost/benefit to all of this was not adequately anticipated. Government at all levels may well be cutting off the right arm when it could have gotten by with losing a few fingers. Remember that "flattening the curve" does not mean fewer people get the virus. It means the period over which people get the virus will be stretched out to a longer period of time. Paradoxically, the flatter the curve the more damage is intentionally inflicted to the economy. If the United States of America looks like Venezuela a year or two from now, people are not going to feel better knowing a few thousand people had access to ventilators. The cost to the USA becoming Venezuela -- including in terms of the loss of human life -- will far surpass the loss of lives from lack of ventilators. It is apparent President Trump sees this clearly, but the political pressure is just too great. He cannot buck the medical experts because every subsequent death will be blamed on him. From a political standpoint, he is doing what he has to for political survival. But his instincts on this are right. | |||||
| Posted by:3dc |
| #17 * [re. citizens] no one else matters |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-08 17:22 |
| #16 Re the "Reformation," our new Luther needs to codify some theses and nail them to the walls of Congress. The 1st of this Reformation's 95 Theses: Borders matter. Secure and defend them. #2: A republic has citizens. Defend them, secure their rights, ensure their economic security. No one law matters. #3: The globe is a geographic concept, not a political one. There is no such thing as a "global citizen." #4: There is no "win-win" with China. Their gain is our loss, and vice-versa. #5. The physical world > the digital world. Our bodies' needs are more important than information relayed through screens and symbols. #6. Manufacturing is strategic. Build it, cultivate it, extract it at home if at all possible and if not it then with allies whom we can trust. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-08 17:21 |
| #15 Well said. A few lessons: ...Nations > "the international community" ...Security > wealth from trade ...Families and neighbors > distant strangers ...Basic science > venture capital investments ...Decency and courage > PC virtue-signaling |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-08 17:18 |
| #14 Whether countries learn from it or not. It has changed our world forever. Those that will factor in the lessons learned will emerge stabler economies and societies for sure. The Left has been dealt an unseen blow too. The power of ill-educated mobs mistaking thuggery for democracy has been de-legitimized and exposed for the danger it can pose. I'll bet a number of 'liberals' and borderline globalists are re-evaluating their philosophies. China will shamelessly try to press on, buoyed by some Asian and African countries, and profit-hungry people in the west, only for some time. And there will come curbs on the Democrat supporting business owners. China's credibility and worthiness will be eroded over time. Commercial entities may shift gradually, but they will shift to intermediate and finished goods manufacturers elsewhere. I suspect new standards of production and some fear of toxicity will eventually factor in automatically from the end-user bases. But the strongest blow has been dealt to forces seeking to dissolve borders, marry diversity to justice and culture to value. The power of tropes and mass psychological effects today cannot be overstated. This whole exotic foods and commie 'Wuhan gone Raccoon City' thing; the initial unwillingness and ineptitude of liberal administrations in controlling the Chinese Plague, everything will color the choices of even the most conformist of peoples. The implicit image of modernized, yet somehow savage Asian communities callously playing scientist and bringing to the shores of their consumers death swilled in their shanties, will not be dissolved with all the Liberal PR and shiny plastic in the world. While tightening the fence wires, locking down the barn doors, restructuring our protocols - we must take advantage of the mass mortal implications of the situation and effect an 'attitude reformation' toward the security profile of our nations. |
| Posted by: Dron66046 2020-04-08 16:44 |
| #13 A (not-)cheap but valuable lesson for us. "Expensive" is a relative term. Just imagine how much the real thing would've cost. Here's hoping our idiotic, wasp-stung, easily-manipulated political class learns the right lessons and prepares for the next Chinese bioweapons attack. It's coming. I believe it's a valuable lesson to our, highly credentialed, and tangibly immature, elites = The Universe doesn't give a damn that you want. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-04-08 15:49 |
| #12 ^ you may be right, grom. A (not-)cheap but valuable lesson for us. Here's hoping our idiotic, wasp-stung, easily-manipulated political class learns the right lessons and prepares for the next Chinese bioweapons attack. It's coming. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-08 15:15 |
| #11 #6 That's why I said Covid-19 is a blessing in disguise - we all get to work out protocols for a response. |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-04-08 14:27 |
| #10 The Soviets were more civilized. Our relationship had clear and well-observed guiderails. We and they fought proxy wars. They never launched a probing attack on the US homeland. And we never even dreamed of outsourcing our manufacturing supply chain to the USSR. Bizarre as it may sound, thanks to our elites' stupidity the Chinese are significantly more dangerous to us than the USSR was. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-08 14:06 |
| #9 Oh. I forgot to mention fentanyl. Xi Jinping can go to hell. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2020-04-08 14:02 |
| #8 One must always at least consider the worst case scenario. When the question is asked: Are the commie bastards capable of such a thing? I think the answer is yes. If so, it would be no surprise that they did it in a typical Chinese chickenshit manner to claim plausible deniability. It was not an upfront, in your face assault that would mean all out war but an underhanded, weaselly move. Then they try to blame us. But it doesn't matter which option you choose. We already have enough evidence against them on other fronts: the cyber attacks, the theft of intellectual property, the confrontational behavior in the South China Sea, the support for nuclear armed puppets like North Korea and Pakistan, their refusal to accept products from other countries while dumping their crap that is produced with slave labor, their violations of human rights and their disregard for the environment. We need to start treating China like the enemy it is, like we treated the old Soviet Union. |
| Posted by: Abu Uluque 2020-04-08 14:01 |
| #7 Re "I'm confused" response to this: "This lack of credibility is alarming because there is a direct inverse relationship between Chinese credibility and the conspiracy theory continuum, such that the lower the credibility of the Chinese government, the greater the likelihood that the true origin of the virus is higher on the continuum." I think the author is pointing out the ironic relationship between Chinese lies and Chinese wickedness. IOW, the more deceptively the. Binese behave, the more likely it is that the origins of the virus were not deliberate. Seems very astute: the Chinese would rather be called malevolent than stupid and incompetent. The former only enhances the Party's mystique; the latter rips it away. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-08 13:45 |
| #6 Excellent analysis. This episode represents an opportunistic, real-time simulation of a bioweapons attack and US response. The ChiComs now have an extraordinarily rich set of data regarding how every US institution, political figure, and social segment will behave in the event of a bio-attack by China. Now they understand that: 1) a large number of leading Democratic US political figures and media outlets will act as apologists for China and rush to blame their American rivals -- Trump today and Cruz or Haley or whoever tomorrow; 2) American federalism and openness can be exploited easily to whip up fear, uncertainty and panic 3) there is a deep cleft that may be exploited between the US public health apparat and US corporate and financial leaders 4) US naval officers and brass are vulnerable to panic, rash actions, open backbiting and dissension 5) finally, ordinary Americans themselves, as opposed to the above leaders, are a people of tenacity, courage and good sense. They represent the greatest threat to any Chinese strategy and must be neutralized through propaganda and cultivation of elite stooges. Rev up Operation Rosemont Capital. |
| Posted by: Lex 2020-04-08 13:33 |
| #5 I'll take (2) to (4), with a "maybe" for (1). Once the epidemic became a Global Pandemic then the hardliners in the ChiCom government cackled with glee and started making it a "(6)" because the Imperial Dragon Must Ruleâ„¢ ... and the lives of Foreign Barbarians are less than nothing to the Sons of the Han. |
| Posted by: magpie 2020-04-08 13:10 |
| #4 This posting is why I come to the Burg religiously. Reasoned, aware adult thought about the way the real world of nation states behave and think. I think it was the careless release of a bio weapon under development that has been covered up and now is being treated like any large scale BDA. What it has shown about our ability to over-react and how that will be a factor in future war plans by the threat actors in the future is frightening. I think Cesare is spot on above. |
| Posted by: NoMoreBS 2020-04-08 13:07 |
| #3 I think original intent is irelevent at this point. Things are as they are and this is where we are on the map. The only important aspect is how the Chicoms play this going forward. For all intents and purposes I think that will be as a still cold enemy in the aftermath of a partially successful bio-terror attack looking for signs of weakness. |
| Posted by: Cesare 2020-04-08 08:37 |
| #2 I'll take 6.1 (Twitching crematorium bags and screams) for $600. Alex |
| Posted by: Besoeker 2020-04-08 01:21 |
| #1 I said (3) on numerous occasions here. However, it is becoming closer and closer to (6). |
| Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2020-04-08 01:11 |