You have commented 339 times on Rantburg.

Your Name
Your e-mail (optional)
Website (optional)
My Original Nic        Pic-a-Nic        Sorry. Comments have been closed on this article.
Bold Italic Underline Strike Bullet Blockquote Small Big Link Squish Foto Photo
-Short Attention Span Theater-
'Point of No Return' Virus Models Are Panicking Officials Into Ill-Advised Lockdowns
2020-03-26
[The Federalist] As U.S. state and local officials halt the economy and quarantine their communities over the Wuhan virus crisis, one would hope our leaders were making such major decisions based on well-sourced data and statistical analysis. That is not the case.

A scan of statements made by media, state governors, local leaders, county judges, and more show many relying on the same source, an online mapping tool called COVID Act Now. The website says it is "built to enable political leaders to quickly make decisions in their Coronavirus response informed by best available data and modeling."

An interactive map provides users a catastrophic forecast for each state, should they wait to implement COVID Act Now’s suggested strict measures to "flatten the curve." But a closer look at how many of COVID Act Now’s predictions have already fallen short, and how they became a ubiquitous resource across the country overnight, suggests something more sinister.

When Dallas County Judge Clay Jenkins announced a shelter-in-place order on Dallas County Sunday, he displayed COVID Act Now graphs with predictive outcomes after three months if certain drastic measures are taken. The NBC Dallas affiliate also embedded the COVID Act Now models in their story on the mandate.

The headline of an NBC Oregon affiliate featured COVID Act Now data, and a headline blaring, "Coronavirus model sees Oregon hospitals overwhelmed by mid-April." Both The Oregonian and The East Oregonian also published stories featuring the widely shared data predicting a "point of no return."

Posted by:Besoeker

#9  #7 hits on something. Assumptions used in creating any models - global warming, Wuhan virus, whatever - are only as good as the assumptions used in creating them and who actually is creating them. An opportunity exists, once the sky-is-falling panic passes and some normalcy returns, to draw attention to the pitfalls and questions re the accuracy of the models.
Posted by: York Harding   2020-03-26 14:29  

#8  Y2K redux.
Posted by: Besoeker   2020-03-26 11:58  

#7  Reminds me of global warming, where worst case models are treated as baseline for political purposes.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2020-03-26 11:13  

#6  panic + ignorance + bad data + naked political opportunism = Shitshow
Posted by: Lex   2020-03-26 10:14  

#5  Those official are not panicking. They're using the opportunity to garner unquestionable unconstitutional powers over the people. Its the Reichstag gambit.
Posted by: Procopius2k   2020-03-26 08:29  

#4  Smells like northern VA. democrats:

ACT Now COVID-19 Alexandria, VA Response Fund Site
Posted by: Besoeker   2020-03-26 06:44  

#3  The lead guy on this is an Alaska Dem pol (see 'Act Now' about us page). A cursory exam of the participant bios revealed few actual medical professionals (possibly only one physician adviser/endorser), only geek modelers, accademia theorists, and grant seekers.

Jonathan S. Kreiss-Tomkins (born February 7, 1989) is a member of the Alaska House of Representatives. A Democrat, he represents the state's 35th district, which encompasses many Southeast island communities including Hoonah, Sitka, Kake, Klawock, Craig, Angoon, and Petersburg.
Posted by: Besoeker   2020-03-26 06:28  

#2  ^ " than then them" ---> "than them"
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-03-26 06:20  

#1  Maybe they panic because they understand how fragile the current social order is - who's better than then them: they've been actively breaking it since the onset of the Great Society.
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-03-26 06:17  

00:00