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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Spread of COVID-19 begins to show pattern of 4-8 week eruption cycle
2020-03-24
All right, all you analytical types, have at it.
[Jpost] Analyzing the specific data of each country separately suggests that there is a light at the end of the tunnel ‐ and that the tunnel is not that long.

It has been four months since COVID-19 hit the world. The virus, which caused major global disruptions to public health, economies and societies, planted massive worldwide panic of the unknown. Now, after several months, I believe a closer look at the numbers provides real ground for optimism with regard to how long this storm will last.

Despite being engaged in the medical equipment business for decades, I do not claim any expertise in biology, immunology, microorganisms or infectious diseases. Numbers, however, can provide an explanation to natural phenomena even in places where the relevant science cannot. After investigating several sources of statistics about the disease, its rate of spread, the rate of new cases, the death rate and more, a certain pattern emerged.
Posted by:trailing wife

#4  Like most viruses, it will expand rapidly until it infects everyone it can easily infect. Then the numbers will go down until there is a big enough pool of non-infected hosts (like removal from quarantine) and then the infected numbers will shoot up again.
Posted by: DarthVader   2020-03-24 12:54  

#3  France had almost 4k new cases today so contrary to the opinion, new cases did not stabilize at ~2000
Posted by: lord garth   2020-03-24 10:56  

#2  a multivariate problem where the quality of the data is part of the problem
Posted by: lord garth   2020-03-24 09:24  

#1  The alternative explanation is that the rate of infection goes down because people start following quarantine rules - as soon as the later are relaxed ...
Posted by: g(r)omgoru   2020-03-24 03:45  

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