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-Signs, Portents, and the Weather-
Coronavirus round up: China: Total Confirmed Coronavirus Cases Rise To 77150
2020-02-25
[TWITTER]




First Coronavirus Case Reported in Afghanistan
[ToloNews] Ferozuddin Feroz, minister of public health, on Monday during a press conference in Kabul confirmed the first coronavirus case in western Herat province, which borders Iran.

State Department IGNORED health officials' warnings against flying coronavirus-infected evacuees back to the US alongside healthy passengers as CDC confirms 18 of them now have the virus that's now struck 35 Americans
No wonder President Trump was furious that the State Department functionaries had deliberately and with intent flouted his direct order on the subject. One hopes they were all fired, or something nearly as attention getting, immediately thereafter — seconded to the nursing staff, perhaps.

Is the killer coronavirus now disease X? World Health Organization expert warns the infection is 'rapidly' fitting category for the mysterious pathogen scientists fear will kill 80million
We won’t know until we can look back after it’s all over, so all we can do is look at the definition and remember for later.

Posted by:Fred

#11  Lex, best analogue to me seems to be the 1918 influenza, which supposedly infected 1/3 of the world and had a 2.5% mortality rate. This seems to have a longer pre-symptomatic contagious period and in our far more mobile society could easily infect more than the 33% of that influenza. It's been a while since I read Barry's book on that - probably worth a re-read now.
Posted by: Glenmore   2020-02-25 17:07  

#10  I'm with Lex and RJS on this.

#FakeNews peddles fear. Fear sells media consumption and hinders the ability to draw conclusions without prejudice. Fear helps control.
Posted by: mossomo   2020-02-25 16:30  

#9  rjs

SARS died out as warmer weather came in 2003 and it is closely related to COVID-19 but unfortunately we don't actually know why SARS died out in the warmer weather because we don't really understand this stuff. We can hope, although the spread of the infection to places in the tropics is not a good sign.
Posted by: lord garth   2020-02-25 12:46  

#8  There is a reason they have the term cold & flu season and everything about Coronavirus fits the cold & flu pattern of spreading and such. Any extrapolated numbers that carry this into the spring are questionable.
Posted by: rjschwarz   2020-02-25 11:01  

#7  Maybe you all are correct that the sky is falling, but when I see simple extrapolations like the above calculations -- one-two-three ... and there-you-have-it, a gazillion! -- I tend to think of internet startup pitchmen and their billion-dollar ideas.

Maybe. Most likely not.

Case in point: the 30 million deaths calculation above using a 2% mortality rate assumption also takes as "given [that] 40-50% [will] eventually catch it."

You mean to say that 3 billion people will be exposed to this virus? 3 BILLION? Really?

Maybe you're right but that seems unlikely.
Posted by: Lex   2020-02-25 10:17  

#6  Seems like something around 2% fatality (deaths vs recovered); Projects to around 30 million ultimate deaths, given 40-50% eventually catch it. Something like 1000 times more than the flu (despite what Rush Limbaugh said.) (Maybe less if report of Asians being twice as susceptible as Westerners is correct.)
Not sure how much treatment will help - I doubt a whole lot of specialty anti-viral drugs are being used, even in Chinese urban centers.
Reports from several places of vaccines having been developed, despite initial reports such would not even be possible (did not hear/do not recall why not.) Given speed of mutation of similar viruses vaccine probably would not maintain effectiveness for long (mutations might be less bad, or worse...) Scary reports that recovery does not generate immunity - wonder if that's because the re-infection is a different mutation?
Posted by: Glenmore   2020-02-25 09:55  

#5  thx beau

but I'm pretty sure the Diamond Princess had a lot of people in their 70s and 80s based on the typical demographics of expensive cruises and the older you are the more likely you have some sort of condition that makes you vulnerable
Posted by: lord garth   2020-02-25 09:23  

#4  @garth, exactly right. China got little lucky in the the infections happened in big cities with at least some resources. If this becomes a rural/stone age area disease, it will be a mess. But then, that cruise ship is an unholy mess, and it's not exactly third world.
Posted by: Beau   2020-02-25 08:23  

#3  beau

yes most people recover if they get good care

but that is a great big IF

In Iran there were 61 infections and 15 deaths as of early today (their time). We had some speculation yesterday on this. Grom thought medicine and care was being reserved for VIPs. I speculated that either the strain of the virus in Iran is particularly lethal or the population infected had a lot of people with pre-existing problems or heavy smokers or people taking drugs intravenously.
Posted by: lord garth   2020-02-25 07:43  

#2  The good news is that most reports only mention confirmed cases. Many of these (except in Wuhan and now outside of China) are now recovered. For example: Chongqing, Mainland China
Confirmed: 576
Deaths: 6
Recovered: 349
Existing: 221
Most people recover from it if they seek care.
Posted by: Beau   2020-02-25 06:44  

#1  actually over 80k as of a few hours ago
Posted by: lord garth   2020-02-25 00:16  

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