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The novel coronavirus epidemic could spread to two-thirds of the world’s population if it cannot be controlled, according to Hong Kong’s leading public health epidemiologist. The number of confirmed cases in the UK has doubled from four to eight – two healthcare workers are among them – as the government announced new powers to detain people suspected of having the virus.
Prof Gabriel Leung, the Hong Kong expert, said that if the drastic containment measures adopted by China proved successful, other countries should consider adopting them – but questions remained to be answered. “Have these massive public health interventions, social distancing, and mobility restrictions worked in China?” said Leung, en route to an expert meeting at the WHO in Geneva. “If so, how can we roll them out, or is it not possible?” Most experts thought that each person infected would go on to transmit the virus to around 2.5 other people. That gave a potential “attack rate” of 60 to 80%. “Is 60-80% of the world’s population going to get infected? Maybe not. Maybe this will come in waves. Maybe the virus is going to attenuate its lethality because it certainly doesn’t help it if it kills everybody in its path, because it will get killed as well,” he said.