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-Land of the Free

Des Moines Register, Partners Cancel Release Of Iowa Poll Over Respondent Concerns

2020-02-02

Jeez, Dollar Store Lenin must be doing even better than expected. On one hand, this is...hilarious. On the other, what does it suggest about what the Swamp will do to us in the general, when they're willing to do so much to Curb Enthusiasm for Swap Meet Stalin?
[DesMoinesRegister] The Des Moines Register, CNN and Selzer & Co. have made the decision to not release the final installment of the CNN/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll as planned this evening.

Nothing is more important to the Register and its polling partners than the integrity of the Iowa Poll. Today, a respondent raised an issue with the way the survey was administered, which could have compromised the results of the poll. It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.

While this appears to be isolated to one surveyor, we cannot confirm that with certainty. Therefore, the partners made the difficult decision to not to move forward with releasing the Iowa Poll.

The Register has published the Iowa Poll for 76 years, and it is considered the gold standard in political polling. Selzer & Co., which conducts the poll, is recognized for its excellence in polling. It is imperative whenever an Iowa Poll is released that there is confidence that the data accurately reflects Iowans’ opinions.

Posted by:charger

#15 James’ Ann Althouse link:

"One operator had apparently enlarged the font size on their computer screen, perhaps cutting off Mr. Buttigieg’s name from the list of options..."

The NYT has unnamed sources who explain what went wrong with that Des Moines Register poll that was withheld at the last minute.

Posted by: trailing wife 2020-02-02 16:15

#14 #11 - that's why I like you so much

Posted by: Frank G 2020-02-02 15:24

#13 bp,

in 2016 the Des Moines Register Poll had Hillary up by 3% over Sanders; the actual caucus results were basically a tie

interestingly back in 2016 Martin O'Malley had 3% in the 2016 iowa DMR poll but only got 0.5% in the Caucus and then dropped out

Posted by: lord garth 2020-02-02 13:56

#12 Althouse has a post up which says the NYT claims that somebody enlarged a font, which squeezed But-what's'isname off the screen, and then somebody from his campaign complained.

Posted by: James 2020-02-02 13:29

#11 Polls, schmolls! I don't believe anything any more. I'm just in it for the chaos.

Posted by: SteveS 2020-02-02 13:17

#10 Hurt reputation? These are the pig fuckers who put a political hit on a guy who donated $1million to a children's hospital.

Posted by: swksvolFF 2020-02-02 13:02

#9 How close was the Iowa Poll in 2016?

Posted by: Bright Pebbles 2020-02-02 12:46

#8 Who cares what the Poll sez? Trump is going to win in a Landslide anyway and the Donks are just pissing their money and time in the Toilet.

Trump is exonerated. The DNC has wasted America's Time and money, they don't have any ideas or solutions to offer the Public. They have blown any credibility they had with The Trump Syndrome screwy Looey kabuki . The American People are not stupid.. Everybody knows what the Donks are...LOSERS,Incompetent Losers. Schiff and Pelosi are Losers.The entire Donk Lineup is squat blind squirrels. It is a JOKE. Bloomberg is throwing his money away and not getting anything from Sane people. Bernie is a tautology. Besides he will just die of old age and there is no future there...just a one way ride to the cemetery. Besides, If he has AOC as his Vice, no one will vote for that. Biden ? Stick a big spoon in his butt.
All Doomed meat. The Dems haven't got a prayer against Trump.

Watch it happen. Trump will drop a hammer on all the eggs in the Dems basket. No worries.
The reason Congress didn't call any "witnesses" is that they saw the hoax of the Impeachment for what it is....and quit wasting their time even listening to the Donks PHONY dance.
Mueller said it all. There was no "THERE" in the Donk There.

Never was.

Posted by: Enver Snore3054 2020-02-02 12:12

#7 It is imperative whenever an Iowa Poll is released that there is confidence that the data accurately reflects Iowans’ opinions.

Wow. Note the weird, very kommissar-like phrasing: "it is imperative," "accurately reflects" [sic], etc.

It is imperative that the masses yield to the Vanguard of the Proletariat (aka the DNC) and not vote for the Menshevik (aka Sanders).

The Party cannot be wrong. The masses must align themselves to the Party, which alone accurately reflects the true Will of the People.

Sanders the Menshevik must not be allowed to win Iowa (and NH, and Nevada, and California and Michigan and...)

Posted by: Lex 2020-02-02 10:49

#6 could easily have destroyed their reputation

Like endorsing Princes Fauxcahontas?

Posted by: Frank G 2020-02-02 10:31

#5 Raj, to answer a couple of questions. First, a single surveyor could easily have destroyed the poll. By not placing Bernie's name on their poll in a theoretical 10% of surveys, if he were to receive 25% support, that would mean that his overall average would be roughly 2.5% lower than it should have been. So instead of looking like a 25% candidate, he would be at 22.5% (entirely theoretical, not sure what current standings might look like in Iowa). That could change him from first to second place, easily.

Second, 1 in 19 is slightly better than five percent, viewed in a statistical sense. I do not believe that they have done this before, but pushing out a poll that has been totally compromised could easily have destroyed their reputation, at least in their own view. If it was either deliberate sabotage that was not authorized at the top or a fuck-up (I think the first is much more likely, but both are possible), they would be very justified in pulling the poll.

Third, the backstory behind the poll will in all likelihood never be released. A lot of this information is kept close to the chest. But if it does emerge, look for it sooner rather than later, while the story is still in the public eye and Bernie's people and Republicans are on the hunt for a rat and/or some public entertainment.

Posted by: Vernal Hatrick 2020-02-02 09:51

#4 It appears a candidate’s name was omitted in at least one interview in which the respondent was asked to name their preferred candidate.

Let's play the game, shall we? 1) Whose name was 'omitted'? I think Lex has it right, with Gabbard / Yang being long shots. Those three, in rough order, are the candidates the Hillary/ Podesta faction of the Democratic party hate the most.

2) If a candidate's name was 'omitted', are the respondents allowed to write somebody in? If you could then yeah, the Register's doing some monkey business.

3) How many surveyors were there? If it's just one problematic surveyor (say out of ten) there would still be faith in the other 90% of the surveys? In that case you could just toss the bad survey and get on with it.

4) Has the Register ever done this before? 76 years equates to 19 presidential elections, so that would indicate either a) shit happens, we've had bad poll results before so we pulled some in the past; b) it's a serious fuck-up, all right or c) one of Hillary's goons is there saying 'Hey youse - dat's a nice newspaper ya got there; would be a real shame was somethin' to happen to it'. I can see Tony Soprano rising from the grave, man...

5) And when does the backstory get dumped for public consumption? This isn't exactly Carlos Ghosn bolting Japan in a viola case in the intrigue department, but I love a political soap opera when it's at the Dem's expense.

Posted by: Raj 2020-02-02 06:50

#3 Pretty sure we can guess correctly the results of that poll.

Heeeeeere's Bernie!!

Posted by: Lex 2020-02-02 01:14

#2 ^ or Harold Stassen.

Posted by: Lex 2020-02-02 00:53

#1 They've got to clear the way for the eventual entry of Hillary: the Eugene McCarthy of the 21st Century.

Posted by: Secret Master 2020-02-02 00:34

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