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Home Front: Politix

Professor renowned for predicting elections says 2020 ‘too close to call'

2019-12-08

[NYP] A professor who has accurately predicted the winner of eight of the last nine presidential elections says 2020 is still officially "too close to call."

"This is a very close and very difficult call. I don’t think either the Democrats or the Republicans should be sending up any victory flags at this point," Allan J. Lichtman, a political historian at American University, told The Post. "Too much is still up in the air and in the age of Trump, things can change very quickly."

Lichtman, 72, has become a cult figure in American politics for developing a set of 13 criteria which he has used to make his prediction. Metrics include things like scandal, foreign military failure and social unrest. The theory is laid out in his 1996 book "The Keys to the White House." The system was able to predict Ronald Reagan’s 1984 reelection back in 1982 ‐ during a recession.

(In 2000, he predicted Al Gore would win the popular vote, though tripped up on the ultimate outcome of the electoral college. Something he still doesn’t accept. "2000 was a stolen election," he says.)

Posted by:Besoeker

#10 ^ Bingo.

Very few Americans are able or willing to state their true political opinions anymore, for fear of jeopardizing their personal and professional relationships and reputation.

Lichtman is a social science professor in Washington DC. His circle is almost certainly over 90% Trump-haters -- maybe 100%.

He cannot possibly state the truth, that Trump is the overwhelming favorite and that the polls severely understate Trump's support, without incurring a sh!tstorm of denunciation and bitter attacks (and even worse) upon his head.

Posted by: Lex 2019-12-08 22:56

#9 How does Lichtman know this when the Dems don't have a candidate?

A reasonable question! Because Orange Man bad?

Or maybe he thinks Trump will smoke who/whatever the Dems run, but if he says that, his friends won't invite him to parties anymore.

Posted by: SteveS 2019-12-08 22:39

#8 How does Lichtman know this when the Dems don't have a candidate?

Posted by: JohnQC 2019-12-08 22:10

#7 What was the earliest he predicted each? I suspect he waits until very close to the election to make such predictions.

Posted by: ruprecht 2019-12-08 21:11

#6 Re: Electoral College vote

Pick up the news. The 10th U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in Denver ruled in a 2-1 decision against the Colorado secretary of state in a case stemming from the 2016 presidential race.

The appeals court ruled that the Constitution provides “presidential electors the right to cast a vote for president and vice president with discretion. And the state does not possess countervailing authority to remove an elector and to cancel his vote in response to the exercise of that Constitutional right.” - cite.

Posted by: Procopius2k 2019-12-08 19:24

#5 Donk controlled states have outright legislated that federal electors have to vote a certain way.

You mean the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, Procopius2k. They seem stalled at 196 electoral college votes (36%), with another eight states (90 votes/17%) having bills still underway in various state legislatures that are probably more Republican than when the process started.

Posted by: trailing wife 2019-12-08 14:11

#4 Procopius2k,

You misconstrue the nature of Electors. They are agents of the State they represent, not unfettered voters. In that scheme the States themselves set the rules for their Electors as to how they vote. Some States its a winner take all deal. Others its proportional.

Posted by: Jiggs Smith2006 2019-12-08 12:55

#3 ...Donk controlled states have outright legislated that federal electors have to vote a certain way. When in this country has the government had any authority to tell any voter how to vote?

Posted by: Procopius2k 2019-12-08 07:04

#2 Because there is no way to predict the degree of success of Democratic electoral cheating?

Posted by: g(r)omgoru 2019-12-08 03:05

#1 Hold on there, Perfesser - according to your own decision rule / criteria, it is not even close. We get it: everyone around Prof. Lichtman, all those in all his circles, professional and social, hates OrangeMan and therefore the Professor can't follow logic and evidence where they lead without destroying himself professionally and socially.

But eppur si muovo.

These are Prof. Allan Lichtman's 13 binary factors, or "jets" as he calls them. Per Prof. Lichtman, if the incumbent is running, then any 6 of these "keys," if TRUE, will predict re-election.

Let's review -- dispassionately, with no shading or virtue-signaling BS allowed. Count the TRUEs, using cold logic and
solid evidence:

1. Party Mandate: After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than after the previous midterm elections. FALSE

2. Contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. TRUE #1

3. Incumbency: The incumbent party candidate is the sitting president. TRUE #2

4. Third party: There is no significant third party or independent campaign. TRUE #3

5. Short term economy: The economy is not in recession during the election campaign. TRUE, in spades #4

6. Long term economy: Real per capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms. TRUE #5

7. Policy change: The incumbent administration affects major changes in national policy. (debatable)

8. Social unrest: There is no sustained social unrest during the term. TRUE #6 ... Panty-Fa =/= secession or the burning cities and multiple assassinations (MLK, RFK) of 1968

9. Scandal: The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal. TRUE but let's not count this, as half the country thinks the existence of IrangeMan is itself a scandal

10. Foreign/military failure: The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs. TRUE #7

Nb. We're already ABOVE Prof. Lichtnan's threshold of 6 "True" statements for the incumbent to be likely to be re-elected, but let's continue...

11. Foreign/military success: The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs. (debatable)

12. Incumbent charisma: The incumbent party candidate is charismatic or a national hero. FALSE

13. Challenger charisma: The challenging party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero. TRUE #8

Prof. Lichtnan, your test threshold was SIX out if 13. Even being generous to the Anti-Trumpers, using your own criteria I come up with an unbiased total of EIGHT "True" statements.

Sorry but it's not "too close to call." It's Trump's to lose.

Posted by: Lex 2019-12-08 01:08

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