WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. job growth likely picked up in September, with wages increasing solidly, which could assuage financial market concerns that the slowing economy was teetering on the brink of a recession amid lingering trade tensions.The Labor Department’s closely watched monthly employment report on Friday will come on the heels of a string of weak economic reports, including a plunge in manufacturing activity to a more than 10-year low in September and a sharp slowdown in services industry growth to levels last seen in 2016.
With signs that the Trump administration’s 15-month trade war with China is spilling over to the broader economy, continued labor market strength is a critical buffer against an economic downturn. The U.S.-China trade war has eroded business confidence, sinking investment and manufacturing.
"The economy is slowing, but it is not in recession and there is no reason to believe it will go into the red this year," said Joel Naroff, chief economist at Naroff Economic Advisors in Holland, Pennsylvania. "The jobs report will likely confirm that situation as moderate job growth is expected."
Nonfarm payrolls probably increased by 145,000 jobs last month after gaining 130,000 in August, according to a Reuters survey of economists. August job growth was probably held back by a seasonal quirk related to students leaving their summer jobs and returning to school. It could be revised higher as has been the trend in the past several years.